latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Trump gains as Rubio loses altitude.

Up: Trump
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 6.8
O’Malley 1.4

Republicans
Rubio 35.8
Cruz 26.6
Trump 22.6
Bush 10.9
Christie 7.0
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.3
Kasich 0.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3126596#msg3126596

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Eight years ago today on Intrade, McCain was rebounding but still in fourth place:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1366769#msg1366769

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[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Dem debate update: Latest controversy doesn’t move the Democratic numbers at all.

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 6.8
O’Malley 1.4
Biden 0.8

Republicans
Rubio 35.6
Cruz 26.6
Trump 22.6
Bush 11.4
Christie 7.0
Romney 0.9
Paul 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Kasich 0.3

Winning Individual
Clinton 57.1
Rubio 15.4
Trump 10.5
Cruz 10.0
Bush 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

Biden won the debate! 

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 6.5
O’Malley 1.4
Biden 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 35.5
Cruz 27.3
Trump 23.6
Bush 11.9
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.8
Paul 0.5
Carson 0.4
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.3

[TarHeelDem]

Glad the betting markets are finally starting to chill on Rubio a bit.

[The Mikado]

Rubio's numbers are kind of shocking for someone who hasn't led in any state in any poll all the way through this process.

[TarHeelDem]

Rubio's numbers are kind of shocking for someone who hasn't led in any state in any poll all the way through this process.

Agreed. Hopefully people will stop looking at him as the Republican JFK now (which I find to be laughable, honestly).

[Likely Voter]

The betting assumes that in the end an establishment candidate will win and so whichever 'establishment' candidate is polling best is the favorite, even if he is 3rd place.  It will be interesting to see what happens if Rubio falls back to 4th place behind Christie in NH.

[morgieb]

Rubio's numbers are kind of shocking for someone who hasn't led in any state in any poll all the way through this process.

Agreed. Hopefully people will stop looking at him as the Republican JFK now (which I find to be laughable, honestly).

That guy was basically trolling though.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio 35.5
Cruz 27.3
Trump 24.8
Bush 11.4
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.8
Carson 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Ryan 0.3
Kasich 0.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3127279#msg3127279

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I guess Jeb Bush winning a 2012 brokered convention was the equivalent of Romney winning a 2016 brokered convention.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1368498#msg1368498

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[Eraserhead]

Are they betting on the early state results?

[Mr. Morden]

Are they betting on the early state results?

Apparently they are.  It's not listed on Oddschecker, but when I go to Betfair's site, I do see prices for Iowa and New Hampshire:

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=120637747&ex=1

But the volume's very low, and so the total prices add up to way more than 100%.  But I'll list them below anyway.

Democratic nomination
Clinton 91.7
Sanders 6.8
O’Malley 1.3

Republican nomination
Rubio 35.0
Cruz 28.8
Trump 24.2
Bush 11.6
Christie 6.5
Romney 1.1
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Paul 0.3

Iowa caucus—Dems
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 28.6

Iowa caucus—GOP
Cruz 73.5
Trump 25.0
Rubio 11.1
Carson 6.2

New Hampshire primary—Dems
Sanders 53.8
Clinton 49.5

New Hampshire primary—GOP
Trump 43.5
Rubio 31.7
Christie 18.9
Cruz 13.2

[Eraserhead]

Interesting, thanks.

[Torie]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

[Ljube]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

Tories would have a permanent majority then.

[Phony Moderate]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

k Benedict.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is all most disgusting. Perhaps the answer is to conclude the the American Revolution was all a mistake, and merge back with the UK. The Parliamentary system, and of course the UK legal system, and their campaign finance laws, and length of campaigns, is far superior to the mess with which we have to cope in all events.

Tories would have a permanent majority then.

The US would create at least two parties to represent American interests, one of which would always be in government.  The Tories would take part in a coalition if no American party got a majority of seats, but the Americans would be in the driver's seat.

[Likely Voter]

Rubio continues to trend down at PredictIt. Their pricing now is...

Cruz 33¢
Trump 31¢
Rubio 29¢
Bush 8¢
Christie 8¢
Kasich 2¢

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz drops a bit, but otherwise very little movement in the markets in the past week.

Rubio 35.5
Cruz 27.3
Trump 23.6
Bush 11.6
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.7
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Kasich 0.2
Paul 0.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3135501#msg3135501

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1374949#msg1374949

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[The Other Castro]

IT'S HAPPENINGGGG

PredictIt:

Trump - 33%
Cruz - 31%
Rubio - 29%
Christie - 9%
Bush - 9%

[TarHeelDem]

Wow. What fascinating times we are living in.

[Ljube]

IT'S HAPPENINGGGG

PredictIt:

Trump - 33%
Cruz - 31%
Rubio - 29%
Christie - 9%
Bush - 9%

IT'S HAPPENING!!!!!

[Mr. Morden]

Trump creeping up on Cruz…

Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.4

Republicans
Rubio 35.6
Cruz 26.0
Trump 25.4
Bush 11.4
Christie 6.5
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.5
Kasich 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Paul 0.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3138100#msg3138100

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1376747#msg1376747

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[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow, Sanders was briefly up to 23 on PredictIt. What a bunch of lunatic True Believers. At least they are becoming more sane regarding the GOP race.

[Eraserhead]

Bush is still sitting at 11.4? Sheesh.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump surge continues, now passes Cruz for 2nd place:

Rubio 35.2
Trump 27.0
Cruz 26.6