2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[DownWithTheLeft]

LOL after absentee ballot counts for the close race for the second seat on my town council (the R incumbet won easily) the Republican and the non-incumbent Democrat are tied at 2725 votes each.  Easily the most ridiculous thing ever, and to think I easily didn't vote for him

[Lincoln Republican]

So, Corzine could not buy the Governorship this time.

There is justice after all.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, Corzine could not buy the Governorship this time.

There is justice after all.

hey, not fair!  he "only" spent $20M on it this time around!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What might have been...

Gov. Corzine's N.J. re-election bid nearly abandoned as White House concerns grew

TRENTON -- It was the great urban legend of the campaign: With the White House worried, a frustrated Gov. Jon Corzine was having second thoughts and came close to aborting his re-election bid.

Now, Senate President Richard Codey says it happened.

In an interview, Codey (D-Essex) detailed a series of summer phone calls, meetings and the results of a confidential poll that nearly threw New Jersey’s governor’s race into the type of turmoil last seen when then-Sen. Robert Torricelli dropped his re-election bid in final weeks of the 2002 campaign.

[MORE]

[tmthforu94]

Thought it would be more approiate to post this on here...
I ran the New Jersey gubernatorial race of PresidentForever. The only difference was Daggett wasn't a candidate, but some guy named Jeff Brunner was, who got a similar amount to Daggett did.
Basically, the results are similar to RL, PV wise. However, I did much better than Christie actually did in big cities, and not as well in some Republican bastions. Will post some notable county results below...

Stateweide Results:
Christie: 50.6% 1.6 million votes
Corzine: 45.5% 1.4 million votes
Brunner: 3.9% .1 million votes

Essex - Corzine, 49-47
Somerset - Christie, 53-44
Cumberland - Chrisite, 48,47
Trenton City - Corzine, 54-41
Paterson City - Corzine, 48-39-12
Bergen - Christie, 52-43
Newark City - 65-31
Ocean - Christie, 54-42
Mercer - Christie, 52-44

[tmthforu94]

I won the "electoral vote" 592-255, also.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Any chance for a map of the election results by legislative district?

[Eraserhead]

Thought it would be more approiate to post this on here...
I ran the New Jersey gubernatorial race of PresidentForever. The only difference was Daggett wasn't a candidate, but some guy named Jeff Brunner was, who got a similar amount to Daggett did.
Basically, the results are similar to RL, PV wise. However, I did much better than Christie actually did in big cities, and not as well in some Republican bastions. Will post some notable county results below...

Stateweide Results:
Christie: 50.6% 1.6 million votes
Corzine: 45.5% 1.4 million votes
Brunner: 3.9% .1 million votes

Essex - Corzine, 49-47
Somerset - Christie, 53-44
Cumberland - Chrisite, 48,47
Trenton City - Corzine, 54-41
Paterson City - Corzine, 48-39-12
Bergen - Christie, 52-43
Newark City - 65-31
Ocean - Christie, 54-42
Mercer - Christie, 52-44

President Forever does counties now?

[tmthforu94]

Thought it would be more approiate to post this on here...
I ran the New Jersey gubernatorial race of PresidentForever. The only difference was Daggett wasn't a candidate, but some guy named Jeff Brunner was, who got a similar amount to Daggett did.
Basically, the results are similar to RL, PV wise. However, I did much better than Christie actually did in big cities, and not as well in some Republican bastions. Will post some notable county results below...

Stateweide Results:
Christie: 50.6% 1.6 million votes
Corzine: 45.5% 1.4 million votes
Brunner: 3.9% .1 million votes

Essex - Corzine, 49-47
Somerset - Christie, 53-44
Cumberland - Chrisite, 48,47
Trenton City - Corzine, 54-41
Paterson City - Corzine, 48-39-12
Bergen - Christie, 52-43
Newark City - 65-31
Ocean - Christie, 54-42
Mercer - Christie, 52-44

President Forever does counties now?

Only for statewide elections.

[Eraserhead]

Thought it would be more approiate to post this on here...
I ran the New Jersey gubernatorial race of PresidentForever. The only difference was Daggett wasn't a candidate, but some guy named Jeff Brunner was, who got a similar amount to Daggett did.
Basically, the results are similar to RL, PV wise. However, I did much better than Christie actually did in big cities, and not as well in some Republican bastions. Will post some notable county results below...

Stateweide Results:
Christie: 50.6% 1.6 million votes
Corzine: 45.5% 1.4 million votes
Brunner: 3.9% .1 million votes

Essex - Corzine, 49-47
Somerset - Christie, 53-44
Cumberland - Chrisite, 48,47
Trenton City - Corzine, 54-41
Paterson City - Corzine, 48-39-12
Bergen - Christie, 52-43
Newark City - 65-31
Ocean - Christie, 54-42
Mercer - Christie, 52-44

President Forever does counties now?

Only for statewide elections.

That's cool. I wish I could get it for my Mac.

[DownWithTheLeft]

New idea for assembly elections:

DO NOTHING

The heavily targeted seats like LD1 and LD36 did much worse than untargeted seats like LD38, 14, etc.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New idea for assembly elections:

DO NOTHING

The heavily targeted seats like LD1 and LD36 did much worse than untargeted seats like LD38, 14, etc.

It's simply that Democrats didn't actively defend those that were close. The real strategy here should be a last-minute stealth blitz of select districts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Any chance for a map of the election results by legislative district?

That should actually be simple to do--I'll run the numbers when I get home from my business trip.

My immediate guess though:
Christie: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 30, 39, 40
probably Christie: 3, 18, 19, 36

Corzine: 5, 15, 17, 20, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38
probably Corzine: 6, 7, 22

[DownWithTheLeft]

New idea for assembly elections:

DO NOTHING

The heavily targeted seats like LD1 and LD36 did much worse than untargeted seats like LD38, 14, etc.

It's simply that Democrats didn't actively defend those that were close. The real strategy here should be a last-minute stealth blitz of select districts.

Haha, one of the candidates actually suggested such.  Do nothing, don't even raise a penny, until the day after the last filing report before the election.  Then raise a ton of money and do a last minute ad blitz

[Mechaman]

A bit late, but this was too funny for me not to post:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4n-57dgc3o

It's a f**king shame this guy got only 5% of the vote.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New idea for assembly elections:

DO NOTHING

The heavily targeted seats like LD1 and LD36 did much worse than untargeted seats like LD38, 14, etc.

It's simply that Democrats didn't actively defend those that were close. The real strategy here should be a last-minute stealth blitz of select districts.

Haha, one of the candidates actually suggested such.  Do nothing, don't even raise a penny, until the day after the last filing report before the election.  Then raise a ton of money and do a last minute ad blitz

You don't even need THAT.  Just get the state party to fund a last-minute blitz. Republicans can actually do that now (raise money) that they hold the governor's mansion now, you know.

[Rowan]

Good(and candid) article involving Sweeney:

"For the first time in all my years doing GOTV, rank and file labor guys weren't telling me who they were voting for," said the operative. "These are guys I'm talking to as they're heading in and out of the polls and ordinarily you'll get a thumbs up sign for the Democrat or some fraternal sign for the Democratic candidate. Not this time. This time - silence."

"I go to the gym in the morning and staunch Democrats were saying they were not voting for Corzine. You'd spend 15 minutes trying to convince them why it's important, but they weren't coming out. The differences (between Corzine and Christie) were black and white, but my members are no different from anyone else. They take it out on the guy on top. This whole election was conditioned by the national economy, and then you add to that a polarizing healthcare debate raging in Washington, D.C. These are tides. When Obama came sweeping in last year and brought everyone else with him, it wasn't because we were that good. We rode a wave. Now, we got stronger then - for this. As a party we survived this tidal wave."

http://www.politickernj.com/max/34877/sweeney-you-could-feel-it-ground

[East Coast Republican]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

...

And based on basic...oh...common sense...some of us realize Christie doesn't have 50% of voters definitely supporting him. Why the hell can't you understand this?

Okay, then Corzine doesn't have 40% definitely supporting him. Whats your point?

I never said he did. Then again, I'm not really the one holding up the poll as proof of anything.

Phil, you're wrong.

Yes, that guy above you was/is dead wrong about Pennsylvania.  People who thought President Bush even had a chance at Jersey in 2004 were smoking a little too much GOP weed.  The numbers just weren't there to result in any plausible victory and Bush only lead in one (I believe) poll and was tied in another in july/august...he never even had a real lead in contrast to Pennsylvania.

Now, your prissy 'Waaa Christie has no chance look at the pollssss the polllssss!'

Ummm, I am looking at the polls and Christie is holding strong and Corzine is staying in the same place IF NOT getting weaker.  So Corzine climbed into the 40s.  NOOOOO REALLY?!  Sound the freaking fire alarm!  If Christie breaking 50% is due to a primary bounce, did it ever occur to you that the same reasoning could be applied to Corzine's impassioned speech to NJ Democrats?  Ya see, your extremely flawed reasoning could go either way but there certainly is one thing that is true: Christie is in a remarkably strong position to kick this tax czar out of office.  

Oh and I expect Corzine to break into the 40s as the election gets closer.  A little information on polls: candidate support increases as elections draw near...duh!  Christie and Corzine's numbers are both going up but guess who's keeping pace with Corzine's gains and increasing on them in other polls?  Yup....Chris Christie.  Jersey is a blue state but those other elections you keep referring to are not the rule for all future elections in Jersey.  We got a governor with support in the 30s, negatives in the 50s.  The only downfall for Christie is that his 'no opinion' stands at 46%.  SO, I do expect this race to get significantly closer but I don't expect it to result in a sudden Democratic swing of 15% between now and election day.  REPEAT: I DO NOT THINK CORZINE WILL WIN BY 10 OR MORE POINTS.  If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but at least im using educated guesses to predict how the race will turn out.  You speak as if Christie's defeat is bound to happen but as I said, those past situations had completely different poll numbers/negative/approval numbers and you know this.  Your talk of eventual defeat is ridiculous and at the very worst extremely ignorant.

On a final note, I'm not pleased to see some of the so-called analyses from experienced members on this site.  People here the other day were calling Bergen and Passaic for Lonegan...and I think whoever said that actually still lived in Jersey.  Anybody who has lived in Jersey a looong time shouldve known that Bergen and Passaic weren't going for Lonegan-there is a different breed of Republicanism in those counties and known Lonegan didn't cater to those kind even though he's in Bergen.

This concludes my newbie rant.  I just couldn't stand to see Phil continuously tear down great arguments in favor of Christie with his very weak arguments.  Do your worst with my argument Phillip!

I'll be sure to bump this rambling nonsense after the election. Thanks.

Oh, and it's "Philip," by the way.

Where are you Phillip?  Why didn't you bump the post?  Apologize for being rude to me Phillip.  Admit that this rambling nonsense wasn't nonsense at all.

[East Coast Republican]

Oh and KeystonePhil, are you done having a mental spaz out/meltdown over your belief that Lonegan was somehow going to upset Christie?

:-)

Just saw this after reviewing all four of your posts (three of which included attacks on me. Hmmm).

I never had a mental "spaz out" or meltdown. I never flat out said that Lonegan was going to upset Christie. I said if turnout was horrific enough, it was possible and it looked pretty bad at points during the day.

How you like that Phillip with TWO Ls?

More ten year olds on the forum, I see.

And, yes, I'll bump it regardless. I admit when I'm wrong. I'm sure you won't be around to do the same.

Oh but I AM still here.  Looks like you're the one who isn't here.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Keystone Phil gets owned in absence. Damn. Lovely.

[Mechaman]

Wow what a big man you are ECR For attacking someone who isn't even on this forum anymore!

[East Coast Republican]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

[pogo stick]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

Go away you idiotic troll. No likes you. Not even me.

[Mechaman]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

Go away you idiotic troll. No likes you. Not even me.

But JC, there are quite a few people you don't like.

Also, it's Mechaman, but Mechman is acceptable. And if you like to brag about how you drove someone away from the forum then you're a massive jerk. Just saying.

[East Coast Republican]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

Go away you idiotic troll. No likes you. Not even me.

I'm not about to take advice from someone who isn't even old enough to vote and who fails at all political arguments.