NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Linus Van Pelt]

So does anyone know when/if Fayette County, PA last voted for a Republican for U.S. Senate?

Possibly 1982; Heinz had huge victory, larger than Ted Kennedy's.  If not then, probably prior to WWII.

Specter carried Fayette in 1998.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So does anyone know when/if Fayette County, PA last voted for a Republican for U.S. Senate?

Possibly 1982; Heinz had huge victory, larger than Ted Kennedy's.  If not then, probably prior to WWII.

Specter carried Fayette in 1998.

Indeed. The map is actually on this site.

[Sam Spade]

As far as I can tell, the last races to be called:

AZ-07:  We still have a bunch of absentees and provisionals here, but Grijalva (D) is ahead by 4,000 votes.  Doubt there's any change here.
AZ-08:  Ditto AZ-08, except Giffords (D) is ahead by 2,300 votes.  Doubt any change either.
CA-11:  McNerney (R) leads by 121 votes with all precincts in here.  Nothing will happen for a while here, as you have to wait for late absentees.  Still up in the air IMO.
CA-20:  Vidak (R) is ahead by 1823 votes here.  Much as in CA-11, we wait for late absentees, but I really doubt this changes.
IL-08:  With all precincts in, Walsh (R) leads by 553 votes.  He's declared victory, but Bean (D) is not conceding.  We wait for absentees and provisionals, though 553 votes is a margin that's unlikely to be taken out IMO.
KY-06:  Chandler leads by 600 votes here with all precincts in.  Barr has not conceded and may challenge the result.  He'll probably get a recanvass easily, but Kentucky has no provision for automatic recounts, so he'd have to go to court for one.  I doubt there's any change here.
NY-25:  Waiting on absentees and provisionals - Buerkle (R) is ahead by 659 votes with all precincts reporting.  Generally, in NY, there are very few absentees and provisions and they are rarely much different in number and result from the actual numbers, so this lead is probably enough.
TX-27:  Ortiz (D) has asked for a recount and you've got the watch for the "missing ballot" box suddenly appearing in this part of the world.  Farenthold is ahead by 799 votes and I don't think I've ever seen this margin overturned in a recount.  Missing ballot box, well...
VA-11:  Connolly (D) leads Fimian (R) by 920 votes.  Fimian has not decided to ask for a recount yet, though he'd be entitled to one.  We're not at that point yet, so give it time.
WA-02:  We wait for weeks here.

Presently, the total is 239 R, 186 D

[Sam Spade]

Folks, I've decided to move all discussion of the races left (as well as post-mortem to this thread).

Likely, though I want to talk to Joe about this, we'll combine the other threads with this one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I crunched some numbers. Miller would need 13,439 write-ins to be for someone other than Murkowski. This is over 6% of the total and I don't think I've ever seen over half a percent of votes be faux write-ins except in uncontested races. Really no way I can see Miller take it.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Every write-in will be challenged in court if it's not clearly spelled LISA MURKOWSKI. I expect we'll be waiting on this one till the end of the month at least. I imagine Miller will be a real jackass about this and won't go down without a big fight.

[Torie]

Murkowski is spelled like it sounds. Much tougher is my name for example, which is spelled Stephen. Do you know how often I see my name spelled Steven, and pronounced Stefan if someone sees my name in print?  This "can they spell" story has been really hyped out of proportion.  Moreover, irrespective of what anyone else does, the courts eventually are going to require that if the intent is clear, the vote will be counted, and will not tolerate gamesmanship. Is there someone with a similar name on the write in list?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Miller can't hope to overcome a 7-points lead with a few ill-spelled votes. I understand the media's cautiousness (it ain't done until it's done), but it's hard to see how he could win.

[Sam Spade]

Murkowski is spelled like it sounds. Much tougher is my name for example, which is spelled Stephen. Do you know how often I see my name spelled Steven, and pronounced Stefan if someone sees my name in print?  This "can they spell" story has been really hyped out of proportion.  Moreover, irrespective of what anyone else does, the courts eventually are going to require that if the intent is clear, the vote will be counted, and will not tolerate gamesmanship. Is there someone with a similar name on the write in list?

There's a Lisa M, as I recall.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Every write-in will be challenged in court if it's not clearly spelled LISA MURKOWSKI. I expect we'll be waiting on this one till the end of the month at least. I imagine Miller will be a real jackass about this and won't go down without a big fight.

I don't know what the law on this is in Alaska, but when Shelley Sekula-Gibbs had to run a write-in campaign for Congress in TX-22, a bipartisan election commission accepted 28 pages of spellings of Sekula-Gibbs's name. Not 28 spellings, 28 PAGES of spellings. Generally as long as voter intent can be discerned it will be counted.

[Sam Spade]

Murkowski is spelled like it sounds. Much tougher is my name for example, which is spelled Stephen. Do you know how often I see my name spelled Steven, and pronounced Stefan if someone sees my name in print?  This "can they spell" story has been really hyped out of proportion.  Moreover, irrespective of what anyone else does, the courts eventually are going to require that if the intent is clear, the vote will be counted, and will not tolerate gamesmanship. Is there someone with a similar name on the write in list?

There's a Lisa M, as I recall.

Official write-in list can be found here:

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ci_pg_cl_2010_genr.php#uss

Most problematic:

Lisa M. Lackey
Daniel C. Piaskowski

[cinyc]

There is reasonably strong evidence after 2006-10 that Colorado has become a left-leaning state in general.  It's very different from VA or FL or OH, which all voted for Obama then had a pronounced swing back to the GOP.  There was no swing back in CO, indicating that the state as a whole has shifted left over the past 4 years. I think that is what this guy is getting at.  It's very premature to say that Bennet has the seat for life, but it's pretty logical to say that the Dems here have a better than 50% chance in any major CO race for the forseeable future.  I mean Hickenlooper broke 50% against two opponents for goodness sake!   

There was no swing back in Colorado?   Colorado Republicans won back the state House, CO-03 and CO-04.  They came close to taking over a Senate seat with a weak candidate (who received a greater percentage of the vote than McCain), and would have had a chance to win back the governorship with someone other than Maes.

The Colorado GOP is not dead.  Bennet doesn't have his seat for life.  Colorado is not Massachusetts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There is reasonably strong evidence after 2006-10 that Colorado has become a left-leaning state in general.  It's very different from VA or FL or OH, which all voted for Obama then had a pronounced swing back to the GOP.  There was no swing back in CO, indicating that the state as a whole has shifted left over the past 4 years. I think that is what this guy is getting at.  It's very premature to say that Bennet has the seat for life, but it's pretty logical to say that the Dems here have a better than 50% chance in any major CO race for the forseeable future.  I mean Hickenlooper broke 50% against two opponents for goodness sake!   

There was no swing back in Colorado?   Colorado Republicans won back the state House, CO-03 and CO-04.  They came close to taking over a Senate seat with a weak candidate (who received a greater percentage of the vote than McCain), and would have had a chance to win back the governorship with someone other than Maes.

The Colorado GOP is not dead.  Bennet doesn't have his seat for life.  Colorado is not Massachusetts.

After Angle, now it's Buck's time to become a "weak candidate".
Weren't you guys defending them until a couple of days ago?

[cinyc]

After Angle, now it's Buck's time to become a "weak candidate".
Weren't you guys defending them until a couple of days ago?

I will still defend Angle and Buck as stronger than their primary opponents.  Lowden would have lost, too - she couldn't even beat Angle in the primary, and was particularly gaffe-prone.  Norton couldn't beat Buck.  Castle in Delaware didn't take his primary seriously - and lost.  Had he done the same in the general, he would have lost, too. 

If you can't get out of the primary, you're probably not going to do so well in the general election, anyway. 

The fact is that Colorado is still a swing state.  No Colorado Senator is set for life - and that's a good thing.

[J. J.]

So does anyone know when/if Fayette County, PA last voted for a Republican for U.S. Senate?

Possibly 1982; Heinz had huge victory, larger than Ted Kennedy's.  If not then, probably prior to WWII.

Specter carried Fayette in 1998.

Ah, I forgot 1998.  His opponent was from neighboring Somerset.

[Brittain33]

The Fresno Bee seems to think that Costa will win CA-20 when absentees and provos are counted.

http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/11/03/2145741/vidak-leads-race-for-congress.html

[RI]

I don't know if anyone saw, but Larsen now has a ~500 vote lead up in WA-02.

[Guderian]

The Fresno Bee seems to think that Costa will win CA-20 when absentees and provos are counted.

http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/11/03/2145741/vidak-leads-race-for-congress.html

If there are really "tens of thousands" abseentes and provos in CA-20 that would explain the seemingly absymal turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I want my money back!

I wonder how many heart attacks Phil suffered from while they counted this though?

Oh, if you guys only knew. 

There was a period (I think it was from 9:45 - 10:30) where I thought it was over or close to being finished for Toomey but that slow comeback led to some pretty interesting reactions. 

The best was racing over to the Board of Elections when we thought it was going to a recount. I got out of my car with some others and as I'm running across the street towards the building, I found out that Sestak called Toomey to concede and that the AP called the race for Toomey.

I was initially very calm, reassuring people at the party that the early numbers were going to favor Sestak by a very wide margin. Things kept getting worse and I'm thinking to myself, "This isn't happening, is it?" Then the comeback. Ironic that the final comeback was for the guy that lead in polling almost the entire race. 

It might have been a stressful night but it was exciting. I can appreciate that.

I really didn't notice any last minute "comeback". From my perspective (following it entirely from the PA SOS site) Toomey was a rocket ship, going from 27% to 51%. It might have slowed during that period in which you mentioned but in several counties that I knew Toomey would win, Sestak would start out with a 2-1 lead or even in the mid 70's, then collapse, as Republican precincts came in. It was epic.

[CJK]

Vote for President in 2008:

Obama 45

McCain 45

I'm think most of the other 10% actually voted for McCain and just can't remember him.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=USH00p2

 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I don't know if anyone saw, but Larsen now has a ~500 vote lead up in WA-02.

And 40% or so of the Bellingham vote hasn't come in.    I don't know about Everett, Mt. Vernon, or Marrysville yet, but it looks good for Larsen so far. 

[cinyc]

Here are the Alaska maps of the winner by State House District, with Anchorage and Fairbanks insets.  All data is preliminary, with at least some early vote totals in the HDs where early voting is available, but no absentees.  Miller is in blue, "Write-in" green and McAdams red:

Statewide:


Anchorage/Mat-Su close-up:


Fairbanks close-up:


Basically, Democrat McAdams won the urban Juneau district (one of the most Democratic-leaning in the state), Downtown Anchorage and, due to a Miller-Murkowski split, the outer Kenai Peninsula HD-35.  Miller cleaned up in the Mat-Su exurbs of Anchorage and the other two main Kenai HDs, and narrowly lead "Write-in" in parts of Fairbanks.  "Write-in" - most likely Murkowski - won the rest, particularly bush HDs 37-40, where she took 60-70% of the vote.  

HD-02 in the Southeast was close, and might flip to McAdams if only a handful of write-ins are not for Murkowski or otherwise disqualified.  HD-17 in Eagle River was also close, between "Write In" and Miller.  A few HDs in the Fairbanks area were also close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just spotted this...

TN-4: DesJarlais (R) 57.1, Davis* (D) 38.6
AL-5: Brooks (R) 57.9, Raby (D) 42.1

lolfail

[RI]

HD-02 in the Southeast was close, and might flip to McAdams if only a handful of write-ins are not for Murkowski or otherwise disqualified.

HD-02 is McAdams's home district and contains Sitka. I rather hope he wins it in the end.

[cinyc]

HD-02 in the Southeast was close, and might flip to McAdams if only a handful of write-ins are not for Murkowski or otherwise disqualified.

HD-02 is McAdams's home district and contains Sitka. I rather hope he wins it in the end.

McAdams cleaned up in Sitka but lost Republican-leaning Petersburg and Wrangell.

I can map HDs 01-32 at the precinct level when I get a chance.