Jeb Bush Should Face Facts: It’s Time to Drop Out

[Mr. Morden]

I argued months ago there is a plausible scenario where even if Bush hasn't won any states, he stays in and bets on Florida turning it around.

You do realize that 25 states have primaries or caucuses before Florida does?  How is winning his home state going to turn things around after he's just lost 25 contests?

[Mr. Morden]

I just don't see what's so special about Florida.  Sure, it's one of the few statewide WTA states, but there are other states that are "winner take most", where anyone who wins the state by more than a few points will win the lion's share of the delegates.  If fully half the states have voted before an "establishment savior" gets his first victory (and that victory is from his home state, so more likely to be written off as a fluke), then it's likely too late.

I mean, I do think that it's more likely than not that one of the establishment friendly candidates will win the nomination, but that seems like an implausible way for it to happen.