VT-GOV: Phil Scott in

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

What do you mean its drivel? The numbers clearly show the trend! The Governor there is not very popular, the candidates in the Democratic Party aren't especially promising - one is a billionaire who can really easily be painted as out of touch and crooked, the other an entrenched politico who probably won't win the primary anyway. If you look at polling right now - Cole already leads Kessler, and though Justice leads Cole at the moment, you look at the record for West Virginia polls as of late, and one thing is for sure - they overestimate Democratic performance. Big time. Combine that with a year where the Democratic candidate is obviously going to be clobbered in the Presidential race, and it's kind of hard to imagine either Justice or Kessler pulling it out.

This is mostly true, but I doubt that the Republican candidate will have any coattails. Romney destroyed Obama in WV, yet Democrats won the Senate race, the Governor race and every other statewide race except Attorney General (that's much better than what VA Republicans have "accomplished" in the past years). Is 2016 going to be more difficult for WV Dems? Of course. But is the race unwinnable for them? No. It's a Toss-up/tilt R at this point, whereas VT would be "tilt/leans R" with Scott. But that's just my opinion, y'all can feel free to disagree.

[MT Treasurer]

This happened two weeks ago, but still...

House Speaker Shap Smith (D) drops out of race

[MT Treasurer]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.