India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

In Assam INC signs up RJD to run in one seat out of INC's quota.  So UPA seat sharing in Assam are now

INC      86
AIUDF  21  (+5 more friendly fights with INC)
BPF      12
AGM       2
CPM       2
CPI        1
CPI(ML) 1
RJD       1

[jaichind]

LDF seat sharing in Kerala

CPM                              85
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1
RSP(L)                            1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        0
JSS                                0

It seems no seats for KEC(Skaria Thomas) or JSS.

Note CPM most likely will allocate some seats to pro-CPM independents as might other LDF parties



In 2016 LDF seat sharing was

CPM                             90  (6 for pro-CPM independents)
CPI                              26   (1 for pro-CPI independent)
JD(S)                             5
NCP                               4
JKC                               4   (KEC(Mani) splinter)
NSC                               3  (Muslim) (1 for pro-NSC independent)
INL                                3  (Muslim)
RSP(L)                           1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
CMP                               1
C(S)                               1
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        1

Since 2016 CMP have merged into CPM, NSC merged in INL.

Compared to 2016 every LDF party had to take cuts to accommodate KEC(Mani) and LJD.

[jaichind]

Newsz Now/Synovum Research poll for WB

                                      Seats
AITC                                 179
BJP                                     99
Left Front-INC-ISF               12
Others                                 4

3 out of the 4 Others are in Darjeeling which most likely mean they are won by AITC ally GJM.  So this poll really have AITC+ at 182 seats.

This poll clearly have anti-BJP tactical voting pushing AITC to a large victory and collapse of Left Front-INC-ISF
  

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2021/mar/09/pmk-to-go-it-alone-in-puducherry-assembly-polls-2274449.html

"PMK to go it alone in Puducherry Assembly polls"

PMK drops out of NDA in Puducherry.  Still as long as AINRC-BJP-AIADMK alliance is intact they should be set to sweep the assembly elections over INC-DMK.

[jaichind]

Renaissance Foundation poll for Puducherry has a massive NDA landslide




It has BJP-AIADMK winning 23 seats it if is a 3 way battle between BJP-AIADMK INC-DMK and AINRC.
If it is AINRC-BJP-AIADMK they would sweep 28 seats.

I am skeptical that BJP-AIADMK would win in a 3 way battle.  If so why did BJP accept being a junior partner to AINRC.  In a 3 way fight I think if AINRC  could get AIADMK to be its ally then AINRC-AIADMK would win easily.  As it it this will not get tested since it will be AINRC-BJP-AIADMK alliance to take on INC-DMK.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/puducherry/article/puducherry-elections-bjp-to-contest-in-10-seats-in-alliance-pmk-decides-to-go-solo/730625

"Puducherry elections: BJP to contest in 10 seats in alliance, PMK decides to go solo"

In Puducherry the NDA seat sharing will be AINRC 16 BJP 10 AIADMK 4

[jaichind]

Democracy Times Network poll on Assam has very narrow UPA lead

UPA     65
NDA    61


 
Regional breakdowns






Looking at regional breakdowns it seems that the UPA slight edge is mostly about BPF with backing of AIUDF winning majority of the Bodo seats and INC-AIUDF consolidating the Muslim vote to win big in non-Bodo Lower Assam and fairly Muslim heavy Barak Valley (it is 50/50 Hindu-Muslim here so BJP vs INC vs AIUDF always means BJP sweep but INC-AIUDF vs BJP it seems has INC-AIUDF sweep by consolidating the INC Assamese Hindu vote with the Muslim vote)

The the flip side this poll seem to imply that in many marginal seats the anti-CAA Assamese Hindu is split between INC and AJP-RD leading to BJP wins and making this election a 50/50 race.

2016 election result for comparison

[jaichind]

https://www.india.com/news/india/breaking-mamata-banerjee-attacked-being-rushed-to-hospital-4482082/

"Mamata Rushed To SSKM Hospital After Being Allegedly Attacked in Nandigram; Oppn Calls It ‘Drama’"

In WB, AITC CM Mamata Banerjee was it seems was "attacked by 4-5 men" while campaigning in Nandigram and has been taken to the hospital.

[jaichind]

In TN minor party news Center-Left NMN led by actor Kamal Haasan also finished up his alliance as well.  It will be

NMN   154 (Secular Center-Left)
AISMK  40 (Left populist)
IJK       40 (anti-corruption) (allied with BJP in 2016, UPA in 2019 and now with NMN in 2021)

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/tamil-nadu/article/tamil-nadu-polls-kamal-haasans-mnm-sdpi-alliance-likely-to-be-finalized-bjp-calls-it-highly-condemnable/730682

"Tamil Nadu polls: Kamal Haasan's MNM-SDPI alliance likely to be finalized; BJP calls it 'highly condemnable'"

I seems NMN also will sign up radical Islamic SDPI with 18 seats so now NMN block also known as FA bloc will be

NMN   136 (Secular Center-Left)
AISMK  40 (Left populist)
IJK       40 (anti-corruption) (allied with BJP in 2016, UPA in 2019 and now with NMN in 2021)
SDPI    18 (radical Islamic)

SDPI is the political arm of radical Islamic PFI which has been banned on an off by the government of India for communal violence, terrorism and forced conversions.    SDPI getting into the election is only good news for BJP.

[jaichind]

In WB the only alliance AITC and BJP have are mostly in the Gorkhaland region.

AITC is allied with GJM which was a BJP ally until they shifted over to AITC for 2021 WB assembly elections.

BJP is allied with a 6 party PDF alliance based on Gorkhaland region.  PDF includes GNLF which used to be an AITC ally until GJM joined up with AITC which pushed GNLF over to BJP.  PDF also includes CPRM (Communist Party of Revolutionary Marxists) which is a Gorkhaland based CPM splinter.   

All these Gorkhaland parties are for either for Gorkhaland autonomy within WB or a separate Gorkhaland state.   In this case the BJP is now on record on being in an alliance with a party with the ward Marxist in it.   But that does not seems to have any impact on the BJP brand.

BJP also has its Jharkhand AJSU ally running in 1 seat in return for AJSU support of BJP in tribal heavy regions on the WB-Jharkhand border.

[jaichind]

The allege attack on  WB, AITC CM Mamata Banerjee is eating up all the political oxygen.  Opposition parties (BJP, INC, Left Front) all claim that this "attack" is staged and that most likely Mamata Banerjee stumbled hurting her feet and are pinning it on non-existent "4-5 men" 

[jaichind]

In WB, AITC CM Mamata Banerjee released this photo to show that her injuries are serious and real.  Unless the hospital is part of a fraud her leg does seem like it was injured.  So the only real question is did she fall on her own or was she pushed as she claimed.

[jaichind]

Some more good WB data from PoliticalBaba on political makeup of the voter base of each party/bloc (TMC, BJP, Left Front, INC) from 2019 LS elections

AITC and especially INC heavily depending on Muslim vote.  There are still some more Hindu votes that BJP can try to claw from Left Front.







Shift in votes in WB 2006-2019 shows that the old Hindu Left Front vote went entirely to BJP while most of the Left Front Muslim base went to AITC

[jaichind]

In Puducherry UPA alliance finalized

INC   15
DMK  13
CPI     1
VCK    1 (Dalit)

It seems INC had to yield ground in Puducherry to DMK for DMK to agree to 25 seats for INC in TN.  It is a good trade for INC.  INC-DMK will be defeated pretty decisively in Puducherry now that AINRC-BJP-AIADMK alliance has been formed.  I doubt INC-DMK will cross 5 seats in the election.  In TN DMK-INC will sweep so INC's 25 seats there might be worth 20 MLAs.

[jaichind]

Cartoon on how AITC CM Mamata Banerjee alleged attack and injury now pose a threat to BJP's possible victory in WB.

[jaichind]

In TN NDA (AIADMK+) seat sharing talks done

AIADMK      179
PMK             23 (Vanniyar caste party, largest caste in TN)
BJP              20
TMC               6 (INC splinter, run on AIADMK symbol)
PTMK             1 (Nadar caste party, run on AIADMK symbol)
TMMK            1 (Dalit, run on AIADMK symbol)
PB                 1 (Dalit, run on AIADMK symbol)
MMK              1 (Thevar (Sasikala's caste and very pro-AIADMK) caste party, run on AIADMK symbol)
AIMMK           1 (Thevar caste party, MMK splinter, run on AIADMK symbol)
PDK               1 (Thevar caste party, run on AIADMK symbol)

So AIADMK symbol will run on 191 seats.  This time around being very fearful of AMMK eating into the Thevar vote, AIADMK got a bunch of Thevar micro-parties to back AIADMK.  Without DMDK and AMMK this alliance looks set to lose and lose by a wide margin.

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/politics/in-tn-sdpi-ditches-kamal-haasans-mnm-forges-alliance-with-ammk-to-contest-in-6-seats.html

"In TN, SDPI Ditches Kamal Haasan's MNM, Forges Alliance With AMMK; To Contest In 6 Seats"

In a reversal of the announcement just yesterday of radical Islamic SDPI joining NMN FA bloc with 18 seats, SDPI now joins AMMK bloc to contest 6 seats.  This sort of gives you and idea of SDPI's assessment of the relative size of AMMK's vote base versus NMN.  I would think both AMMK and NMN are going to be in the 5%-7% vote share rang but SDPI clearly thinks differently that it is willing to accept 6 seats from AMMK versus 18 from NMN.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/the-tussle-for-the-christian-vote-in-kerala-7224464/

"The tussle for the Christian vote in Kerala"

Explains how the battles between the mainstream Orthodox Church vs Jacobite Church over control of several churches are throwing up the traditionally pro-UDF Christian vote into a 3 way battle UDF, LDF and BJP where several Jacobite Church leaders are looking to back LDF or BJP in return for their support in their battle with the Orthodox Church.  Of course each heavy Christian district have different alignments on how the  Orthodox Church and Jacobite Church  will each respectively back.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/170-mlas-left-congress-to-join-other-parties-during-polls-held-between-2016-2020-adr-960746.html

"170 MLAs left Congress to join other parties during polls held between 2016-2020: ADR"

ADR report shows that in 2016-2020 INC lost 170 MLAs that defected to run for another party

https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://adrindia.org/sites/default/files/Analysis_of_Re-contesting_MPs_and_MLAs_Who_Changed_Parties_Pan_India_Since_2016_english.pdf

is the report

A chart of MLA gains and losses that switched to run to another party for bigger parties in this period are

           Gain     Loss
BJP       182       18
INC        38      170
AITC       16         4
NPP        16         0
JD(U)     14         5
BSP        11       17
TDP        11       17
NDPP      10        0
SHS         9         0
SP            8       12
NPF          7       15
RJD          2       10
JS(S)        0        9
INLD         0        8
YSRCP      3       15

Clear trend is for INC to net defect to BJP in large numbers.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/supreme-court-to-examine-whether-to-review-50-cap-on-quota/articleshow/81400895.cms

"Supreme Court to examine whether to review 50% cap on quota"



This is potentially consequential as many states are above the 50% cap on quota including TN.  India allows for quotas for backward castes/Dalits on a caste basis for education and government jobs but the supreme court ruled in 1992 that such quotas cannot exceed 50%.  Now that cap is being reviewed by the Supreme Court.

Over the years many states manipulated the definition of what is backward to ensure that certain castes were eligible for such quota to build a vote bank for the ruling party.  This triggered a phenomenon where every caste is trying to claim they are more backward than other castes much like every group in the woke USA are fighting each other to claim greater intersectional victimhood status.   

In TN in order for AIADMK to rope in PMK added the large Vanniyar caste to the list of castes that are eligible  for quotas which pushed the quota total above 50%.  The AIADMK plan was to get PMK on its side for the election and if the Supreme Court strikes it down as being unconstitutional later that would be the likely DMK government problem to deal with.  Now it seems even that 50% limit could be raised. 

[jaichind]

Kerala UDF alliance seat distribution locked down

INC               91
IMUL             27  (Muslim)
KEC(Joseph)  10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                5
NCK               2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)           1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)    1
BNJD             1 (JD(U) splinter)
AIFB              1
RMP               1 (CPM splinter)

In 2016 it was

INC             87
IMUL           24 (Muslim) (including 1 pro-IMUL independent)
KEC(Mani)   15
JD(U)           7    
RSP              5
KEC(Jacob)   1
CMP(J)         1 (CPM splinter)

Since 2016 KEC(Mani) split into KEC(Mani) which left to join LDF and KEC(Joseph) which stayed in UDF.  JD(U) split between BNJD which stayed in UDF while LJD went over to LDF.  NCP split and splinter NCK went over to UDF while NCP stayed in LDF.  UDF also signed up AIFB  which in other states tend to be aligned with Left Front but like RSP in Kerala they got turned off by CPM's dominate position in LDF and joined up with UDF.  Likewise UDF also signed up RMP which is a CPM splinter just like CMP.

All things equal the splinter of KEC(Mani) and JD(U) and part of those parties going over to LDF weakened UDF but did make seat allocation easier as their rump versions that stayed in UDF (KEC(Joseph) and BNJD) clearly got less seats which meant more seat allocation for INC and IMUL.


Comparison to LDF seat sharing in 2021 and 2016

LDF seat sharing in Kerala

CPM                              85
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1
RSP(L)                            1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        0
JSS                                0

It seems no seats for KEC(Skaria Thomas) or JSS.

Note CPM most likely will allocate some seats to pro-CPM independents as might other LDF parties



In 2016 LDF seat sharing was

CPM                             90  (6 for pro-CPM independents)
CPI                              26   (1 for pro-CPI independent)
JD(S)                             5
NCP                               4
JKC                               4   (KEC(Mani) splinter)
NSC                               3  (Muslim) (1 for pro-NSC independent)
INL                                3  (Muslim)
RSP(L)                           1
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
CMP                               1
C(S)                               1
KEC(Skaria Thomas)        1

Since 2016 CMP have merged into CPM, NSC merged in INL.

Compared to 2016 every LDF party had to take cuts to accommodate KEC(Mani) and LJD.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter snap poll on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee alleged attack and injury in WB

Whom do u think will be benefited because of the Nandigram incident?
AITC                44%
BJP                  34%
Left Front-INC  12%

Whom do u trust on the Nandigram incident?
AITC               44%
BJP                 39%

Mostly matched pre-incident partisan alignments in WB.  It seems the incident most likely did not move the needle much in either direction.

[jaichind]

Will Mamata Banerjee get sympathy votes? ( News18 Bangla survey)

Yes 33%
No  67%

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/mar/12/dozens-of-rlsp-leaders-join-rjd-amid-speculation-of-partys-merger-with-jd-u-2275735.html

"Dozens of RLSP leaders join RJD amid speculation of party's merger with JD-U"

Bihar news.  It seems RLSP most likely will be merging back into JD(U) and as a result some anti-JD(U) factions in RLSP are going over to RJD.  This move, just like Nitish Kumar making up with JD(U) splinter HAM led by former JD(U) CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, is part of Nitish Kumar's plan to shore up JD(U) support and power base to deal with a much more power BJP.   There is a real chance that once JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar retires BJP will move in to gobble up JD(U).  Nitish Kumar seems to be making moves to try to preserve JD(U) independence  once he retires.

[jaichind]

In Kerala now the candidates are mostly released for both UDF and LDF one can also tell the number of independents that will contest for each front

Kerala UDF alliance seat distribution  

INC                                 91
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
BNJD                               1 (JD(U) splinter)
AIFB                                1
RMP                                1 (CPM splinter)

The pro-IMUL independent with INC background running in a seat that was allocated to IMUL was a surprise.  It seems IMUL was not able to come up with a winnable candidate in that seat so they nominated a local INC kingpin that will run as a pro-IMUL independent.


LDF seat distribution

CPM                              85 (includes 9 pro-CPM independents)
CPI                               25
KEC(Mani)                     13
JD(S)                              4
LJD                                 3 (JD(U) anti-BJP splinter)
NCP                                3
INL                                 3 (Muslim)
C(S)                               1 (INC splinter)
RSP(L)                            1 (RSP splinter)
KEC(Balakrishna Pillai)     1
JKC                                1 (KEC(Mani) splinter)
 
As usual CPM ran a bunch of pro-CPM independents in seats allocated to it.  They are usually in heavy Christian and Muslim seats  where the CPM brand is not so hot.


NDA alliance breakdown in Kerala still not available.