Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 (user search)
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  Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020  (Read 3659 times)
Make My Bank Account Great Again
KingCharles
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« on: December 07, 2016, 05:45:47 PM »

Warren-35%
Booker-25%
Harris-18%
Castro-8%
Newsom-7%
Gillibrand-4%
Biden-3%

Warren's in the best position to unite both wings of the Party. The animosity between the Sanders wing and the Hillary wing of the Party will not be mended by 2020; in fact I predict that it'll worsen.
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KingCharles
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2016, 07:07:41 PM »

What's Kanye's message gonna be though?
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KingCharles
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2016, 08:14:13 PM »


Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

I'm gonna write a fairly lengthy post about the fracture between the Berniecrats and the Hillary coalition this weekend, but I don't think any kind of centrist will make it though the primary. If they do, it will come at a political cost for the general election.
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KingCharles
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2016, 08:52:32 PM »


Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

I'm gonna write a fairly lengthy post about the fracture between the Berniecrats and the Hillary coalition this weekend, but I don't think any kind of centrist will make it though the primary. If they do, it will come at a political cost for the general election.

Have a leftist on the top of the ticket, you need a centrist VP. You can't have Marx 2.0.

Many of the big money Democratic donors will not be interested in funding anybody who is of Warren's ideology or to her left. These big money donors will pour millions to crush any leftist insurgency and the Bernie wing will retaliate accordingly. This cycle will play out similar to 2012 with the republicans except this time the fracture we saw with the democrats in 2016 will pale in comparison to what's about to happen.
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KingCharles
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2016, 12:06:28 AM »

I honestly don't think Warren can be stopped if she runs. She will pick up all the Bernie voters and the opposition will be splintered. If she doesn't run I can see a darkhorse emerging, voters younger than 45 have simply had it with the establishment. Warren/Bullock would be an ideal ticket, focus on government reform and less on social issues.
The thing is I don't think she's a good debater and I think that will hurt her

True, but she has a wing of the Party that, if Bernie doesn't run, is a lockdown for her. That's a huge advantage for her to have.

Her biggest obstacle is gonna be the millions of dollars of ads and messaging that will be thrown at her to crush her movement.
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KingCharles
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Posts: 201
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2016, 12:31:16 AM »

I honestly don't think Warren can be stopped if she runs. She will pick up all the Bernie voters and the opposition will be splintered. If she doesn't run I can see a darkhorse emerging, voters younger than 45 have simply had it with the establishment. Warren/Bullock would be an ideal ticket, focus on government reform and less on social issues.
The thing is I don't think she's a good debater and I think that will hurt her

True, but she has a wing of the Party that, if Bernie doesn't run, is a lockdown for her. That's a huge advantage for her to have.

Her biggest obstacle is gonna be the millions of dollars of ads and messaging that will be thrown at her to crush her movement.
I kinda disagree she has a complete lock on Bernies wing let's not forget that unlike Hillary Booker and Castro will be a lot younger an there something to be said in millennials liking the crazy granpa college professor vs the out of touch grandma as opposed to Warren be the crazy grandma college professor against someone who is young and in touch like Booker and Castro

As a 20 year old, I've never quite understood why Castro and Booker would have appeal with young people. I don't think that being youthful necessary means you'll get the youth vote. Jill Stein, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders were all older and got plenty of backing from younger voters.

The Bernie wing will roast Booker over his Wall Street ties and centrist tendencies but his charisma and big money backing will carry him to a competitive race with Warren. I just don't see Castro making any kind of ground.
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