MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Shadows]

Over the course of 72 hours this past week, Greg Gianforte, the millionaire Republican running for Montana’s open congressional seat, took three different stances on the health care bill just passed by the House of Representatives. And his opponent took that flip-flopping to the bank.

Democrat Rob Quist, who has refused to accept donations from lobbyists or corporate political action committees, raised over $550,000 in the past four days, his campaign told HuffPost on Wednesday. Campaign contributions, which average $25 and have come from about 147,000 individual donors, now top $3.8 million.

“Our campaign has seen a surge in donations and volunteer enthusiasm since New Jersey multimillionaire Greg Gianforte was caught saying one thing to Montanans and the opposite to his D.C. lobbyist donors,” Tina Olechowski, Quist’s spokeswoman, said in a statement. “Montanans deserve and expect honesty from their representatives but we’ve yet to see that from New Jersey multimillionaire Greg Gianforte,” Olechowski told HuffPost. “All the damage control his wealth can buy can’t walk this back ― Montanans expect straight talk, not a career politician who will only share his true positions with lobbyist donors behind closed doors.”

Less than a third of the public favors the new bill, according to a HuffPost/YouGov survey published Monday. A Fox News poll found similar results. Gianforte has accepted $2 million from the Congressional Leadership Fund, which only supports candidates who back the AHCA.

Trumpcare is not going to help Gianforte !

[MT Treasurer]

Why is Shadows using this thread to repeat the Quist campaign's talking points?

I don't think any particular scandal has sunk Quist. But Pianoforte's campaign has done a very good job of keeping up a constant drip, drip, drip of small bad things that build to a consistent narrative.

Again, I hate to sound like bronz here, but both sides™ do stuff like this in a Congressional race. The Quist campaign has been running attack ads claiming that PF and his business have had 22 tax liens filed against them, which simply isn't true. They also accused him of actively supporting groups which are trying to sell public lands and some other stuff like him being from NJ, blocking stream access near his estate, etc.

All Quist needs/needed to do is stick by his populist playbook and localize the race. He had a poor debate performance, doesn't really have clear political positions on a lot of issues (especially foreign and gun policy) and is trying to appeal to everyone at the same time. That's not necessarily the fault of the national Democratic party, but rather a result of Quist being a very mediocre candidate. Of course he could still win this race, but only because it's a special election and only because Montana is a very Democratic-friendly state.

At this point I must say I'll be really glad when this election is over. Still 2 weeks left, unfortunately.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I don't think any particular scandal has sunk Quist. But Pianoforte's campaign has done a very good job of keeping up a constant drip, drip, drip of small bad things that build to a consistent narrative.

Again, I hate to sound like bronz here, but both sides™ do stuff like this in a Congressional race. The Quist campaign has been running attack ads claiming that PF and his business have had 22 tax liens filed against them, which simply isn't true. They also accused him of actively supporting groups which are trying to sell public lands and some other stuff like him being from NJ, blocking stream access near his estate, etc.

All Quist needs/needed to do is stick by his populist playbook and localize the race. He had a poor debate performance, doesn't really have clear political positions on a lot of issues (especially foreign and gun policy) and is trying to appeal to everyone at the same time. That's not necessarily the fault of the national Democratic party, but rather a result of Quist being a very mediocre candidate. Of course he could still win this race, but only because it's a special election and only because Montana is a very Democratic-friendly state.

I mean... I wasn't making an accusation? In fact, I was mostly complimenting the competence of Pianoforte's staff.

I'm not a Montanan, so my info on the race is pretty limited to what the Billings Gazette, Missoulian, and Helena IR choose to put into my Facebook feed. And so far that's been much more heavily slanted towards anti-Quist oppo than anti-Gianforte oppo.

[Shadows]

So in reddit, 1 of the Bernie folks conducted another google survey.

Raw results -

Quist - 48.5
Gianforte - 41.9
Wicks - 9.6

Age -

18-24
Quist - 45.9, Gianforte - 32.8, Wicks - 26.2

25-34
Quist - 56.3, Gianforte - 24.6, Wicks - 10.6

35-44
Quist - 44.3, Gianforte - 28.7, Wicks - 7.9

45-54
Quist - 50.9, Gianforte - 56.8, Wicks - 6.1

55-64
Quist - 55.8, Gianforte - 39.2, Wicks - 6.2

65+
Quist - 43.0, Gianforte - 70.3, Wicks - 7.9

Male -
Quist - 41.5, Gianforte - 51.1, Wicks - 11.5

Female -
Quist - 56.8, Gianforte - 31.8, Wicks - 9.6
Obviously not a great poll, but if Wicks is doing this good among young voters, I think Quist can make up this ground.

Also interesting that Quist is winning in most Google Surveys (which tend to be not so good) ! If Quist has this a lead with women or young voters, then he can definitely win !

[The Other Castro]

Wait wtf is this my poll from earlier? I can't really tell since I'm on my phone.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I mean... I wasn't making an accusation? In fact, I was mostly complimenting the competence of Pianoforte's staff.

I'm not a Montanan, so my info on the race is pretty limited to what the Billings Gazette, Missoulian, and Helena IR choose to put into my Facebook feed. And so far that's been much more heavily slanted towards anti-Quist oppo than anti-Gianforte oppo.

You should have followed the 2016 gubernatorial race, then - Quist's attack ads are very similar to the one Bullock and the DGA ran. If Pianoforte wins, it won't be because his oppo reseatch team is competent: Both campaigns are basically just repeating talking points and trying to rally their base with these attacks, but nothing serious has been revealed so far - I mean, no one cares about this nudist story, for example.

This idea that some Bernie people often seem to have - that everyone is conspiring against their candidate - is a bit ridiculous. Quist could have won the race fairly easily, and he might still win by a narrow margin, who knows. But just blaming Republican attack ads, Perez or national Democratic groups for a potential loss is nonsense.

I don't want to argue about this any longer, though. The results are going to be very interesting, regardless to who wins. I look forward to the county by county results and how accurate my map will be The East-West divide could be very large, but there is no way we will see a 58-point gap (which is basically what Castro's and cinyc's GCS poll showed). If Quist is getting crushed that badly in Eastern MT (which also means he is losing Yellowstone County by a lot, a place where I admittedly don't see him having that much crossover appeal), there is no way he will win the election. Of course the reverse is true as well - PF losing Western MT by 29 (which is not even remotely possible, but okay) would mean that he loses the election by a Blanche Lincoln style margin. The overall result (Quist +5) strikes me as a bit Democratic-friendly, but I'm prepared for everything, I guess. Republicans would do best if they didn't get their hopes up and prepared for a loss, so that they can be pleasantly surprised if things turn out better than expected on election day.

I think you're fundamentally misunderstanding what I'm saying.

Though I do wish that DCCC had gotten into the race earlier, and I suspect that their reticence comes from a regional and ideological bias, what I'm mostly saying is:

A) Pianoforte (from what I'm seeing, which is admittedly limited) is running a better campaign than Quist.

B) Part of that is simply that Quist is really new to politics, and while being a touring musician and a candidate for office are superficially similar (public performance, long hours, cheap hotels, working ropelines) in fact he's not really doing a good job adjusting.

C) The MTDems and state VIPs that recruited Quist should have vetted his biography and, at minimum, addressed all of these (small) issues that Pianoforte is using quite well at the beginning of the campaign, or else recruited someone else.

I think I've also expressed frustration that National Democrats aren't doing infrastructural things like opposition research. I'm not sure, ultimately, whose responsibility that is. But I'm merely wishing that *someone * was doing it, because (at least in the newspapers) whatever research is being done by the Quist campaign isn't really getting traction.


Also -

Quist - 43.0, Gianforte - 70.3, Wicks - 7.9

[Shadows]

Quist while running an amateurish campaign has talked about local issues especially has made public lands his central theme. You can see someone like Ossoff who is running a totally different campaign (running against Trump with doubtful results) nationalizing which is clearly not the case with Quist !

Atleast he is working hard, doing rallies & knocking doors while Gianforte stays home, raises funds & doesn't meet the people much !

Trump Jr. - "We need more people in D.C. to help my father. The deck is really stacked. It's stacked against us — by the way, even from people in our own party — we've all seen that,"

“I know historically Butte’s sort of a very, let’s call it, a Reagan Democrat (town),” ”(But) based on the numbers, I’m going to call it a Trump Democrat town. ” The only jobs Quist has created are those for lobbyists, not real jobs for hardworking Americans"

Gianforte - “Rob Quist is Nancy Pelosi in a cowboy hat,”

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-Jr-urges-support-for-Greg-Gianforte-in-US-11138962.php

[cinyc]

So in reddit, 1 of the Bernie folks conducted another google survey.

Raw results -

Quist - 48.5
Gianforte - 41.9
Wicks - 9.6

Age -

18-24
Quist - 45.9, Gianforte - 32.8, Wicks - 26.2

25-34
Quist - 56.3, Gianforte - 24.6, Wicks - 10.6

35-44
Quist - 44.3, Gianforte - 28.7, Wicks - 7.9

45-54
Quist - 50.9, Gianforte - 56.8, Wicks - 6.1

55-64
Quist - 55.8, Gianforte - 39.2, Wicks - 6.2

65+
Quist - 43.0, Gianforte - 70.3, Wicks - 7.9

Male -
Quist - 41.5, Gianforte - 51.1, Wicks - 11.5

Female -
Quist - 56.8, Gianforte - 31.8, Wicks - 9.6
Obviously not a great poll, but if Wicks is doing this good among young voters, I think Quist can make up this ground.

Also interesting that Quist is winning in most Google Surveys (which tend to be not so good) ! If Quist has this a lead with women or young voters, then he can definitely win !

Did they provide a link to the survey?

[cinyc]

Wait wtf is this my poll from earlier? I can't really tell since I'm on my phone.

The topline numbers are identical, so, maybe.  The crosstabs seem to be different, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For 65+, the numbers add up to about 120%.

[Shadows]

For 65+, the numbers add up to about 120%.

Yea that was probably 23 % or Gianforte at 50.3, probably a typo, will check !

[_]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

[cinyc]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think. 

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app. 

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

[_]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think. 

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app. 

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

So we have spotty polling 2 weeks out from pollsters who are sub par at best, at least that will make the results more interesting.

[MT Treasurer]

You won't see any good pollster polling this race before the election, so don't get your hopes up. The more confusion there is, the more interesting election night will be, I guess.

I wouldn't trust any poll in this race. My prediction will be based on gut feeling alone.

[Sorenroy]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think. 

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app. 

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

So, why buy a Google poll then? How much cheaper is it than polling done by an established polling organization?

[cinyc]

You won't see any good pollster polling this race before the election, so don't get your hopes up. The more confusion there is, the more interesting election night will be, I guess.

I wouldn't trust any poll in this race. My prediction will be based on gut feeling alone.

I still think the Lee Newpapers might have Mason Dixon conduct a poll in the next few weeks, like they usually do for Montana races of import.  Or, at least I'm hoping that they will.

[cinyc]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think.  

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app.  

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

So, why buy a Google poll then? How much cheaper is it than polling done by an established polling organization?

I've never priced a regular poll, so I can't tell you.  But the Google one-question state polls are generally 15 cents per respondent.  So a 500-respondent poll can be done for $75.  It's relatively affordable.   (And there is - or at least was - a coupon offer for a user's first poll, making it even cheaper for your first poll).   Multiple question polls cost 10x more, which is out of my price range.

RRH says Montana requires a live operator make calls (instead of robodialing), which increases the cost of a telephone poll there.  That's one other reason we're not seeing more Montana polls.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think the Lee Newpapers might have Mason Dixon conduct a poll in the next few weeks, like they usually do for Montana races of import.  Or, at least I'm hoping that they will.

Maybe, but their last poll in 2016 was conducted Oct. 10-12, so basically one month before the election. It had Trump up 10 and Bullock up 2 (and after predicting that Bullock would win by 2-4 and not in a massive landslide on election day, I was called an idiot in that thread).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

[MT Treasurer]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

You don't say?

But apparently Enten doesn't know anything about (MT) politics if he thinks Tester is heavily favored just because the special election is close. The people in the comment section predicting Tester has nothing to worry about and will win by double digits are delusional.

Tester was the one who really pushed hard for Quist to be the nominee, and Quist has to thank him a lot fot that. If the Democrats lose this race, Tester definitely won't be "happy", even if the result is close. In many ways, this is a proxy war between Daines and Tester/Bullock - as you know, Pianoforte and Daines are close friends and Daines convinced PF to run for this seat. Bullock and Tester supported Quist against Curtis and did a lot to get him nominated.

[The Other Castro]

Next weekend, Bernie Sanders is going to the Montana cities of Missoula, Butte, Billings, and Bozeman for Quist.

[Mr. Smith]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

You don't say?

But apparently Enten doesn't know anything about (MT) politics if he thinks Tester is heavily favored just because the special election is close. The people in the comment section predicting Tester has nothing to worry about and will win by double digits are delusional.

Tester was the one who really pushed hard for Quist to be the nominee, and Quist has to thank him a lot fot that. If the Democrats lose this race, Tester definitely won't be "happy", even if the result is close. In many ways, this is a proxy war between Daines and Tester/Bullock - as you know, Pianoforte and Daines are close friends and Daines convinced PF to run for this seat. Bullock and Tester supported Quist against Curtis and did a lot to get him nominated.

It would appear that Curtis was the one who should've won the nomination then.

[MT Treasurer]

It would appear that Curtis was the one who should've won the nomination then.

Well to be fair, most people (including myself) thought Quist had a better chance of winning this race than Curtis. He just didn't run away with the race like I suspected he would. I think Daines deserves some credit for not abandoning PF after his 2016 loss, though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

We've known that for LONG time, Harry. Some actual news now, please?