MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

New poll from Senate Majority PAC (D):

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 43%
Undecided - 8%

Among "Enthusiastic Voters":
Gianforte - 48%
Quist - 47%
Undecided - 5%

Poll conducted over April 25-27.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/quist-gianforte-montana-poll

[windjammer]

I feel good in my +7 gianforte prediction.

[MT Treasurer]

Still sticking with Pianoforte +5.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I had Quist winning by 7, Gianforte is surprising me here...

[BuckeyeNut]

Are "enthusiastic voters" what they're calling "likely voters"?

[KingSweden]

Where did the moderate Republicans go?

I grew up as a moderate Republican.  The party left us behind long ago.

Same here. Those days are longgggg gone

[KingSweden]

The Republican Party has embrace an almost early Soviet style devotion to the ever constant quest for greater purification and routing out of those hostile elements who have found themselves within their ranks from a variety of backgrounds and origins and whose presence serves to dillute and pollute the Party.


Of course, this is not a Totalitarian regime, so the notion that you can superimpose a bog standard conservative boilerplate into every race, in every state is a recipe for electoral disaster and a big reason why we no longer can compete at all in close to 20 states.

TBF Dems have a stable of state's they don't look hot in, though that's more from incompetence, long term realignment and the predilections of coastal donors than purity purges

[windjammer]

Where did the moderate Republicans go?

I grew up as a moderate Republican.  The party left us behind long ago.

Same here. Those days are longgggg gone

I mean you are college educated young , difficult to find appealing for you an old WWC party

[Skill and Chance]

New poll from Senate Majority PAC (D):

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 43%
Undecided - 8%

Among "Enthusiastic Voters":
Gianforte - 48%
Quist - 47%
Undecided - 5%

Poll conducted over April 25-27.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/quist-gianforte-montana-poll

Hmmm... given that this is pre-health care bill passing the House, this seat could still be competitive, but that is definitely bad for Quist in a Dem internal.

[OneJ]

Let's also wait & see what Gravis has to offer (although their results are usually screwed up and will definitely have to take them with a grain of salt). It's definitely not the end for Quist, especially after recent events.

[Kantakouzenos]

Gravis poll conducted from May 2nd- May 4th shows Pianoforte leading the state by 8 points, down from 13 previously.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/montana-special-election-poll-gianforte-leads-quist/

Both candidates lost points in the second poll, as uncertain voters went from 2% to 10%

[heatcharger]

Went from 52/39 Pianoforte to 45/37.

Lol at Gravis hyping this as Quist gaining ground.

[Figueira]

Yeah, seems like Pianoforte is currently ahead, but it's still conceivable (though not likely) that Cowboy Poet could pull ahead by the end of the month. Maybe Lean R would be the best rating for this.

[TheSaint250]

Yeah, unless something really big occurs, whether on the national level or to Gianforte, he won't lose.

[cinyc]

Why is Gravis polling the Green Party candidate, Breck?  I thought he was thrown off the ballot.  Did that change?

[MT Treasurer]

Why is Gravis polling the Green Party candidate, Breck?  I thought he was thrown off the ballot.  Did that change?

No, it didn't. Lolgravis.

[OneJ]

Undecideds blew up and Quist was "gaining ground?" Lol okay Gravis.

[cinyc]

Why is Gravis polling the Green Party candidate, Breck?  I thought he was thrown off the ballot.  Did that change?

No, it didn't. Lolgravis.

Not only is Breck not on the ballot (he appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court to no avail), but according to his own website, he missed the deadline to accept write-ins, and endorsed Doug Campbell's write-in campaign.

So, LolGravis, indeed.

[MT Treasurer]

Why is Gravis polling the Green Party candidate, Breck?  I thought he was thrown off the ballot.  Did that change?

No, it didn't. Lolgravis.

Not only is Breck not on the ballot (he appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court to no avail), but according to his own website, he missed the deadline to accept write-ins, and endorsed Doug Campbell's write-in campaign.

So, LolGravis, indeed.

I mean... even if he were on the ballot, there's no way all Third party candidates combined would get 8% of the vote. I'm also not sure why Undecideds went from 2% in the first survey (conducted April 27th) to 10% in the second one (conducted from May 2nd to the 4th) when the debate was held on April 29 and the race hasn't been getting any less attention since then.

Are you planning on doing another GCS Survey before the election, cinyc?

[cinyc]

Why is Gravis polling the Green Party candidate, Breck?  I thought he was thrown off the ballot.  Did that change?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;msg=5639799;topic=254607.775;sesc=4f121f212327b1da7976227f8fbc5200

No, it didn't. Lolgravis.

Not only is Breck not on the ballot (he appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court to no avail), but according to his own website, he missed the deadline to accept write-ins, and endorsed Doug Campbell's write-in campaign.

So, LolGravis, indeed.

I mean... even if he were on the ballot, there's no way all Third party candidates combined would get 8% of the vote. I'm also not sure why Undecideds went from 2% in the first survey (conducted April 27th) to 10% in the second one (conducted from May 2nd to the 4th) when the debate was held on April 29 and the race hasn't been getting any less attention since then.

Are you planning on doing another GCS Survey before the election, cinyc?

Gravis' first first poll was actually on or around April 6.  Uncertains there were 7%.  So the undecideds actually bounced from 7 to 2 to 10.  

They also polled Breck in their real first release, who got 2%.  But it at least made some sense to poll Breck at that time, as he was suing or appealing to get back on the ballot.  Now, it makes no sense.

I also don't understand why Gravis released two polls on the same day, instead of releasing the April 27 numbers last week.  lolGravis, I suppose.

I am planning on doing another GCS survey - but much closer to the election.  I'll probably start it around the 20th or 21st.

[GlobeSoc]

Quite frankly, the data here is crap. I wouldn't be surprised if the result is Wicks +98.

[heatcharger]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

[Skill and Chance]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

Late April so pre-AHCA vote, but it will take a lot to put Quist over the line.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think we can all agree that these polls on this particular race are crap.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

Congrats Congressman Gianforte! This race is over!