2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 167592 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2020, 12:10:37 PM »
« edited: June 21, 2020, 12:37:43 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)
Edit: correction - this topline is just for independents. Loomer has a "9 point lead" in the GE.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2020, 12:40:40 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-isnt-running-as-a-fire-starter/2020/06/03/05792e7a-a597-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

An AOC internal in a piece published on June 3 has her at 73% in her own primary.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #27 on: June 22, 2020, 04:18:17 PM »
Full details for that Victoria Research & Consulting/House Majority PAC poll from PA-01:

https://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-dem-pac-poll-finds-tight-pa1-race/94865/

June 7-14, 2020
407 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

With leaners:

Finello 46%
Fitzpatrick 46%
Other/neither 3%
Undecided 8%

Generic D vs Generic R:

Democrat 52%
Republican 40%
Other/neither 2%
Undecided 8%

Biden vs Trump:

Biden 53%
Trump 40%
Other/neither 5%
Undecided 7%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2020, 03:08:12 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2020, 04:15:02 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Cowan 43%
Green 40%
Undecided 18%

The following is old (but seemed to slip under the radar here): Mutnick also had some pretty dire primary numbers from early December for Jeff Van Drew's hypothetical reelection bid as a Democrat.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2020, 03:51:44 AM »
National Research Inc./Peter Meijer (R) internal for the MI-03 Republican primary:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2020, 10:19:46 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2020, 10:43:24 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Some Utah polls by Y2 Analytics for UtahPolicy.com and KUTV 2 News that we missed:

UT-01 D Primary
March 21-30, 2020
29 likely voters (lmao)
MoE: 18.2%

Darren Parry 58%
Jamie Cheek 42%

UT-01 R Primary
March 21-30, 2020
103 likely voters
MoE: 9.7%

Bob Stevenson 25%
Katie Witt 17%
Mark Shepherd 13%
Catherine Hammon 12%
Douglas Durbano 11%
Tina Cannon 8%
Kerry Gibson 7%
Blake Moore 6%
JC DeYoung 1%
Chadwick Fairbanks <1%
Zach Hartman <1%

GENERIC BALLOT POLLS, January 16-30, 2020 (MoEs between 4% and 4.2%):

UT-01
551 likely voters

R 47%
D 22%
Someone else 9%
Other 3%
Undecided 20%

UT-02
558 likely voters

R 38%
D 36%
Someone else 7%
Other 4%
Undecided 15%

UT-03
570 likely voters

R 48%
D 23%
Someone else 5%
Other 3%
Undecided 21%

UT-04
591 likely voters

R 41%
D 32%
Someone else 7%
Other 5%
Undecided 15%

Additionally, we have a new Gottheimer internal for his primary conducted by Target Smart:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gottheimer-has-41-point-lead-against-kreibich-in-nj-5-internal-poll-shows/
The sample size hasn't been released, but it's of likely voters with an MoE of 4.9% (sampling period: June 17-18).

Gottheimer 66% (with leaners)
Kreibich 23%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2020, 11:40:13 AM »
Club for Growth has two surveys out (by WPA Intelligence) for TX-13's R runoff, in which their endorsed candidate Ronny Jackson is pitted against Josh Winegarner:
https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CfGPAC_TX_CD13_BrushfireSummary_200619.pdf

May 11-12, 2020

Winegarner 47%
Jackson 36%
Undecided 17%

June 17-18, 2020
408 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Jackson 49%
Winegarner 41%
Undecided 10%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2020, 06:50:29 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2020, 08:18:57 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707753/democratic-poll-finds-narrow-lead-for-perry

PA-10
GBAO Strategies/DePasquale internal
May 28-31, 2020
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Perry 50%
De Pasquale 47%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2020, 09:40:58 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2020, 07:55:31 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-hate-crimes-bill-draws-increased-gop-support-after-protests/ximjkpbBNxfNOsP7bJ0SSP/

PPP/EMILY's List
Bordeaux (D) 42%
McCormick (R) 39%

The MoE is at least 3% as the lead is quoted as within it.

Edit: 538 says the sample size is 589 likely voters.
Edit 2: the poll is up here and the survey was taken from June 22 to June 23.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2020, 01:49:28 PM »
https://www.postbulletin.com/news/government-and-politics/6550329-A-tale-of-two-polls

MN-01 poll
Harper Polling (R)/Hagedorn internal
March 10-12, 2020 (no idea why it's been released now...not been anything better since for Hagedorn? I'd had this district down as safe R)
406 likely voters
MoE: 4.86%

Hagedorn 49%
Feehan 33%
Undecided 18%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2020, 07:21:39 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 08:37:55 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Can't access the file, but 538 is linking to a PPP poll conducted for a partisan client in PA-16:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BcrifbBqJKxF4CgIJogeGOOBGlqo0yLB/view

726 voters
June 22-23, 2020

Kelly (R) 48%
Gnibus (D) 40%

Edit: extra details from other posts of this follow.

MoE: 3.6%
It's an internal for Kristy Gnibus.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2020, 08:44:31 PM »
Reposting here for the congressional district poll:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #37 on: June 26, 2020, 08:39:45 AM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #38 on: June 26, 2020, 09:09:11 AM »
Another NY-24 poll:
https://dccc.org/the-case-against-john-katko/

DCCC Targeting & Analytics Dept.
June 18-22, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%

Balter 48%
Katko 45%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #39 on: June 28, 2020, 06:08:49 AM »
UT-01 R primary internal:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #40 on: June 29, 2020, 01:00:52 PM »
More old Utah polls (primary polls listed first, then GE polls). Certain D primary polls have horrible sample sizes here, so beware.

Results can all be found here: https://www.utpoliticaltrends.com/results

March 21-30, 2020 primary polls

UT-02 R primary
175 likely voters

Stevenson 73%
Burkett 17%
Jensen 6%
Jorgensen 4%

UT-02 D primary
59 likely voters

Hopkins 41%
Weston 40%
Livingston 19%

UT-03 R primary
184 likely voters

Curtis 78%
Alders 22%

UT-03 D primary
37 likely voters

Thorpe 42%
Anderson 37%
Robinson 21%

June 27-July 17, 2019 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
554 likely voters

R 45%
D 20%
Third party 11%
Other 3%
Undecided 22%

UT-02
689 likely voters

R 37%
D 36%
Third party 7%
Other 5%
Undecided 15%

UT-03
568 likely voters

R 43%
D 21%
Third party 10%
Other 4%
Undecided 22%

UT-04
647 likely voters

D 36%
R 34%
Third party 6%
Other 3%
Undecided 21%

September 5-October 8, 2019 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
198 likely voters

R 42%
D 21%
Third party 15%
Other 2%
Undecided 21%

UT-02
267 likely voters

R 45%
D 37%
Third party 5%
Other 2%
Undecided 11%

UT-03
227 likely voters

R 46%
D 22%
Third party 10%
Other 6%
Undecided 16%

UT-04
198 likely voters

R 37%
D 35%
Third party 8%
Other 3%
Undecided 17%

March 21-30, 2020 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
268 likely voters

R 48%
D 24%
Third party 4%
Other 1%
Undecided 23%

UT-02
342 likely voters

R 41%
D 33%
Third party 7%
Other 1%
Undecided 17%

UT-03
354 likely voters

R 46%
D 29%
Third party 2%
Other 2%
Undecided 21%

UT-04
307 likely voters

R 38%
D 38%
Third party 4%
Other 1%
Undecided 18%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #41 on: June 29, 2020, 09:25:22 PM »
CA-01 Democratic GE internal

https://audreyforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PollingMemo.Denney.2020.06.23.pdf
Lake Research Partners/Audrey for Congress

June 10-14, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

LaMalfa 45%
Denney 41%
Undecided 11%
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #42 on: June 30, 2020, 09:19:43 AM »
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/bc453ab900a62c2a5139a494a15c0cfa/TX-06%20DCCC%20Analytics%20-%20Toplines%20-%202020.06.24.pdf

DCCC poll for TX-06
June 24-28, 2020
376 likely voters

D 46%
R 45%
Blank ballot/refused 9%

Candidates named:

Ron Wright (R) 45%
Stephen Daniel (D) 41%
Undecided 15%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #43 on: June 30, 2020, 03:57:29 PM »
The MoE for that TX-06 poll is 4.8%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #44 on: July 02, 2020, 09:36:03 AM »

It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2020, 09:13:44 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on July 02, 2020, 08:36:38 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 01, 2020, 11:48:34 PM
New Crystal Ball Ratings:


LOl Texas! Talk about a dummymander man!

A gerrymander that lasts for 8 years out of 10 is not usually a dummymander.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #46 on: July 03, 2020, 06:54:58 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #47 on: July 08, 2020, 09:53:50 AM »
ME-02 R Primary poll:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/08/politics/poll-gives-dale-crafts-edge-in-gop-primary-in-maines-2nd-district/

June 30-July 6, 2020
604 likely Republican voters
MoE: 4.1%

Crafts 37%
Bennett 25%
Brakey 19%
Undecided 19%

Something to watch w.r.t. Republicans coming home to Collins by November:

Trump favourability: 82%-11%
Collins favourability: 65%-14%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #48 on: July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #49 on: July 08, 2020, 06:34:40 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 08, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%

booooooo, did this @sshole not poll the sen race?!

That wasn't very populist of her. Safe Montanan -> Tilt Maryland Matt?
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