Republicans now have a lock on 47% of the vote in VA (45% with the crazy high libertarian numbers in 2013), but while Dem landslides don't happen, that last 1-2% is incredibly hard for the GOP. There does seem to be a hard Dem floor with white voters unlike other parts of the South. They can try to flip Loudoun and Prince William with a culturally Northeastern campaign, but then rural turnout lags, and they seem to have a hard ceiling around 40% in Fairfax and 45% in Henrico. They can try the rural turnout route like Cuccinelli in 2013, but then they fall to 45% in Prince William and Loudoun and get blown out worse in Fairfax and Henrico. I also think Sarvis took more votes from the business-oriented Warner and McAuliffe than their opponents.
How do you figure the "Republicans generally have a lock on 47" percent of the statewide vote in Virginia?
They didn't get that much with John McCain.
They barely received that amount with Mitt Romney.
