Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.

If I recall from the  primary, there is no particular trend.  EV is treated as a separate category of votes in parishes rather then being joined to precinct or counted before hand in secrecy. Some  parishes released it first, others, notably Lafayette, released it last. Historically the EV is more republican than the day of vote, and historically the GOP under-preforms their combined primary vote, but we will see if history holds up.

I think ED will be more Republican than EV because of the college football effect that probably was what made ED more Dem than EV in the primary.

[Skill and Chance]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

This illustrates quite well why I expect Dems to have better long term prospects in LA than in MS.  The potential for NOLA to eventually do what Atlanta is doing to GA is real. 

[Skill and Chance]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

[Skill and Chance]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

Its urban and swung D from 2012 to 2016?
Why not.

Good point. This is why I think Dems have more of a future in LA than in many other Southern states.  A "cities only" Dem win is now possible there.