Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[DINGO Joe]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

Can't even put here what my wife said about the rural parishes, makes me sound like Nathan by comparison.

[MT Treasurer]

Usually, when a LA election is very close, the Democrat tends to win it (LA-SEN 1996, LA-SEN 2002, LA-GOV 2003 all spring to mind, and I know there are other examples too). Maybe tonight will be a different story (when was the last time a Republican won a close race in LA?), but I wouldn’t bet on it.

No, it won’t.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

Can’t wait till Oregon takes you guys down in the playoffs

Do they still play football on the West coast?

Duh we just dont get free points from the media like the $EC does.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

Sweet mother of God. I knew #trendsarereal, but damn

[Oryxslayer]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195910246537011200
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195919213912825857

So as of January 2020 when the new legislature is sworn in, this is going to be the final breakdown?

Senate

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 11

House

Republicans: 67
Democrats: 37
independent: 1

I see one independent district on that House map you linked there, and I presume the rest are accounted for.  

Theres a second Indie in NOLA if you squint hard enough. The vacancy I believe was also in a GOP seat so its 68/35/2. That's the distribution that makes  the most sense since the GOP was one pickup away from the 70 seat supermajority threshold, but they failed to hit said pickup and went back a seat.

[Tender Branson]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

[lfromnj]

Louisana is really weird in how many independents it elects.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

[DINGO Joe]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Ya see, John Bel is a very nice centrist and it's not exactly working for him either.  Racist hicks are racist.

[ProudModerate2]

Very close 51% vs 49%.
Congrats to Dem Gov. John Bel Edwards.

[soundchaser]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Depends on the bill — for a social issue like abortion (hypothetically, of course, since Edwards is pro-life), probably wouldn’t be too tough. For something like cutting TOPS or redistricting? Never gonna happen.

[Oryxslayer]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Substantial. There are at least 3 relatively consrervative Democrats in Louisiana House (not so much as Republicans, but - still), and 1 Indie is also conservative-leaning.

[Roll Roons]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Ya see, John Bel is a very nice centrist and it's not exactly working for him either.  Racist hicks are racist.

Let's be honest, a Bernie/Warren type-candidate would have done MUCH worse in the rural areas. Edwards may not have won them, but lowering the margins of defeat was crucial to his victory (and Beshear's).

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Thompson? Brown? White? At least 3 with decidedly conservative leanings. Other 5 (by my count) remaining white Democrats are, probably, more liberal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Depends on the bill — for a social issue like abortion (hypothetically, of course, since Edwards is pro-life), probably wouldn’t be too tough. For something like cutting TOPS or redistricting? Never gonna happen.

Not on Medicaid either then, I assume. Very good to know.

[Tender Branson]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Ya see, John Bel is a very nice centrist and it's not exactly working for him either.  Racist hicks are racist.

Yet he just won a state by 3 points that Hilldog lost to Trump by 20.

[libertpaulian]

Would Scalise or Kennedy have won?

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Depends on the bill — for a social issue like abortion (hypothetically, of course, since Edwards is pro-life), probably wouldn’t be too tough. For something like cutting TOPS or redistricting? Never gonna happen.

Not on Medicaid either then, I assume. Very good to know.

Probably - no. Louisiana Democrats are very frequently socially conservative, but, usually, more liberal (or, at least - moderate) on economy. Those, who were economicaly conservative too, became Republicans at least decade ago.

[smoltchanov]

Would Scalise or Kennedy have won?

Probably - yes. Kennedy - almost sure, Scalise - possibly too

[Adam Griffin]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Yes, but (in reference to what was mentioned above) you haven't seen the types of shenanigans that can occur (and have occurred) behind closed doors post-VRA in the South between the GOP and black EOs with regard to situations such as reapportionment. I could totally see JBE's reapportionment veto getting overridden if there are a couple of legislators in black-majority districts who would like to go from "remotely-competitive-in-worst-case-scenario 55% black districts" to "never-have-to-run-another-primary-or-general-election-campaign 60-65% black districts" - and the GOP will be all too willing to accommodate.

Fortunately, this is nowhere nearly as common as it was some decades ago (even then, it was more commonly seen at the county and municipal level) and there probably aren't too many "vulnerable" types left who have any genuine excuse to do this - I imagine any who do may be in rural areas that are hemorrhaging population. It's also harder to skirt the spirit of VRA by following its letter these days given comprehensive data-sets are more available for analysis ("packing" isn't as easily accomplished).

[Adam Griffin]

JBE's Victory Speech, for those who wanted it:

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Yes, but (in reference to what was mentioned above) you haven't seen the types of shenanigans that can occur (and have occurred) behind closed doors post-VRA in the South between the GOP and black EOs with regard to situations such as reapportionment. I could totally see JBE's reapportionment veto getting overridden if there are a couple of legislators in black-majority districts who would like to go from "remotely-competitive-in-worst-case-scenario 55% black districts" to "never-have-to-run-another-primary-or-general-election-campaign 60-65% black districts" - and the GOP will be all too willing to accommodate.

Oh, yes! Personal interests almost always trump everything else. Human nature)))

[Xing]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

[smoltchanov]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

Show me at least one "real progressive" Democrat winning statewide in Louisiana. Or Mississippi. Or Alabama. Idiocy.When needed (to prevent victory of worse candidate) "principles" may be temporerily thrown into basket. Politics is "an art of compromise", not a competition who is more "principled"...