Kerry wins due to a lackluster economy.
Exactly. That was my reasoning as well. Without Iraq, terrorism would be much less of an issue in 2004 and many of the voters who voted for Bush due to concerns about terrorism would have voted for Kerry due to concerns about the economy. Also, without Iraq, Bush would have been unable to attack Kerry as a flip-flopper or "swiftboat" Kerry, and thus Kerry would have gotten some voters that didn't go to him in RL.
Jfern, could you also please make a map?
Terrorism would still be a big concern due to war in Afghanistan and unfriendly regimes in Iran, Iraq and NKorea. Kerry could still be painted as a flip-flopper on a host of issues and statements, and there would have still been some animus from the swift-boaters.
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