UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread (user search)
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  UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread  (Read 147602 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 08, 2017, 04:16:13 PM »

May would probably be able to carry on with this result. With the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, only a no-confidence vote in the government and no new government getting a confidence vote within 14 days, or a 2/3 vote like we just had would trigger a new election.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2017, 04:17:40 PM »

so..... Cons+UUP+DUP government or a 'progressive alliance' of everybody with Sinn Fein taking seats to block the conservatives.

Exit polls means CON/DUP/UUP is short of a majority.

But it would exceed the other side.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2017, 04:27:14 PM »

Apparently there are 76 seats too close to call on that exit poll.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2017, 04:39:37 PM »

There have been some big errors in exit polls in the past:

See here
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2017, 04:45:08 PM »


That's a c.5% increase in turnout from 2015.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2017, 04:56:04 PM »

With the Tories as they are, they could govern on a vote-by-vote basis...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2017, 04:57:56 PM »

If this exit poll is correct, where would Labour gain these seats mostly from? Scotland? Additional seats in London?

Most in the South and London, yes.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2017, 05:01:30 PM »

LAB hold Newcastle Central.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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United Kingdom


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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2017, 05:03:26 PM »

That's a 2.1% swing, way below the exit poll...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2017, 05:04:15 PM »

Exit poll was expecting a 7% swing...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2017, 05:05:13 PM »

A 2.1% swing nationwide would only give Labour 18 gains...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2017, 05:08:54 PM »

Swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South!
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2017, 05:10:26 PM »

Results in Newcastle substantially better for Tories, according to BBC.

Better than you'd expect based on the exit polls, but by no means good enough

Well... it's not good for Labour either.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2017, 05:12:53 PM »

I'd like to be up on the stage with all the candidates, get 0 votes and jump up and down like I had won.

One council candidate got 0 votes, but the record for a GE is only 1 vote in 200 (Cardiff North)
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2017, 05:13:48 PM »

Lib Dems have ruled out a coalition or any deals.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2017, 05:19:38 PM »

To clarify, that was in 2005.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,353
United Kingdom


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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2017, 05:22:28 PM »

What we really need to see are the Lab-Con marginals...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2017, 05:30:33 PM »

Yes, they will lose major party status now and a lot of coverage.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2017, 05:31:18 PM »

Labour is outperforming YouGov's model in both Sunderland and Newcastle by 3%.

What about the Tories, though?
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2017, 05:37:24 PM »

Labour VERY optimistic about Hastings, Tories not so much.

Rudd could be a major scalp, but not the biggest if the SNP lose Moray.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2017, 05:38:11 PM »

I never felt that it was going to be 350+. Always felt that was wishful thinking after May moved so far to the right (or showed her true colors).
LOL she moved to the Left and didn't talk about immigration...
She moved to the right on the economy, which made many swing voters and potential Conservative voters think "the nasty party" was back and that May was simply another business conservative instead of someone who's there for ordinary people too. She blew it with the "dementia tax" and fox hunting nonsense.

We still don"t know if she has "blown it".
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2017, 05:42:02 PM »

Any party leaders who might lose their riding? (Of those who hold their ridings at present.)

Angus Robertson, the SNP Westminster leader in Moray.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2017, 05:46:11 PM »

BBC saying the young vote has come out to vote, in line with that the polls where thinking.

Those polls also projected a Tory majority.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,353
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2017, 05:47:49 PM »

I think we can junk the exiit poll then...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,353
United Kingdom


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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2017, 05:50:42 PM »

I think we can junk the exiit poll then...

lol it's been three results bud. 95% of all polls are junk to begin with.

Yes and none of them match it even in a close manner!
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