Arizona redistricting goes to Supreme Court

[Devils30]

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2014/10/02/3575068/the-supreme-court-just-took-a-case-that-could-make-partisan-gerrymandering-even-worse/

I think this seems bad for Dems but would backfire much worse on the GOP. Sure, they could undo the Arizona commission but wouldn't this precedent give the Democrats a chance to gerrymander California? If Ds controlled Cali they would wipe most of the GOP off the map. Probably could do a 48-5 or 49-4 or so map if they tried. In the long run New Jersey and Washington would also help the Dems. Cali alone would probably solve half of the Dems House problems nationwide.

[Devils30]

Not sure but the GOP would regret this if in 2020 the Dems control CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA- not of which is really too far-fetched. Additionally, a Dem governor could force neutral maps in PA, VA and possibly FL, OH, WI, MI depending on 2018 elections.

[Devils30]

Every dem should hope the Supreme Court essentially lets us trade 3 seats in Arizona for dozens more in California New Jersey and washington.

[Devils30]

I just don't understand the GOP reasoning on this. They have A LOT more to lose than the Democrats. In exchange for 2 and maybe 3 seats in Arizona, the Dems could easily turn Cali into a 48-5 map up from 38-15. Not to mention Dems likely gain another 3 seats in Washington state as it is democratic controlled.

Those dozen seats is only the start:
Let's say Dems win the NJ governorship in 2017. A 6-6 map can easily become 10-2 by packing the GOP vote in conservative northwest jersey and the jersey shore into two districts. New York has several GOP state senators in seats that vote democratic nationally and it may only be a matter of time before they become wiped out like southern dems were in the 90s and early 00s. Add another 4-5 or so seats to democrats in NY.

Now if the Dems control governorships in PA, VA, WI, MI, OH, FL in 2020 they can wipe out a GOP gerrymander with or without the Supreme Court ruling on this redistricting case. That alone would cancel a dozen or so GOP held seats. This doesn't even mention the possibly of democrats winning the governorships in GA and AZ in 2018 or winning everything in Colorado, Nevada.

Overall just with CA, WA, NJ, NY the democrats could gain 15-20 seats alone, basically wiping out the GOP house majority. Factoring in the other possibility of the Dems gaining governorships in the above mentioned states and it looks like a 25-30 seat democratic gain alone. The GOP should be very careful what they wish for.

[Devils30]

The GOP would have to win all branches in Iowa state govt and in 2020 it could have a democratic gov again elected in 2018. Same with Florida along with all the others I mentioned. I think the GOP would have a tough time doing a 20-7 Florida map without overextending itself. Some of the GOP held and formerly GOP held seats in Miami are probably not going back ever again. The demographic trends there have ended this.

[Devils30]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/washington-inside-out/the-pernicious-effects-of-gerrymandering-20141203

I can't help but root for the GOP to win this case! I would gladly sacrifice 2 seats in AZ for another 8 in Cali and eventual likely control over the WA, NJ process in 2020.

[Devils30]

But why would the GOP be okay with this? They really stand to lose so much. They pretty much already control all the big red states without commissions while Dems are restricted in Cali, Washington, New Jersey. If Ds won those 3 and took the New York State senate in a big 2020, that's probably a gain of 14-18 seats right there.

Now let's say Gwen Graham wins the Florida governorship in 2018 and the courts draw the congressional and legislative maps after she vetoes GOP proposals. With changing demographics the Ds win the Florida legislature and then control another big state.

Also look at PA if Wolf wins again and can't rule out Ds winning governors in WI, MI, OH to at least force a court drawn neutral map. Democrats can show outrage at this if the Supreme Court actually rules on it (something tells me they'll dismiss it or not really decide anything) but overturning the Arizona commission almost certainly helps Democrats more than the GOP.