Rasmussen: Lynn Swann leads Rendell by 2%

[Adlai Stevenson]

I cannot believe this poll at all.  Is Rasmussen slightly off-kilter at the moment, ala Maryland?  Or is this correct.  I thought Rendell would end up winning about 56%-42%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

No Rendell is not a lock but he still remains a favourite.  Nor would we expect him to win by 101% either.  Two can play at partisanship, two parties that is: I notice that turnout in Wyoming amongst registered voters was 105%!  So the Republicans know how to win amongst graveyards at least.

Anyway, more importantly has Rendell started running ads yet?  If he hasn't then I'm not surprised by the results of the poll and we could rationalise that Swann's political exposure and media coverage have generated favourable voter reaction.  If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.   

I think what might have happened is that Swann ala Steele in Maryland has drawn some black voters towards the GOP.  If Kerry won 50%-48% in PA in 2000, and carried Blacks by (I'm guessing) 85%-14%?  Then it wouldn't be difficult for Swann to overtake Rendell if he won only 30%-35% of African American voters and held on to Bush's margin amongst Whites.  I am only speculating for the basis of the poll.  This is why I think Rasmussen has shown to leads in unlikely scenarios, with Steele's 45%-40% lead in MD and Swann's 45%-43% in PA.  If my theory is correct, then the GOP strategy of running black candidates in North-Eastern urban states could pay off in a more favourable climate. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.

Just because his approval rating is better than his disapproval doesn't mean everything is ok. That's a high disapproval and it's close to his approval.   

Actually I was making the point that if he was running ads and was in that state with only a net of +2% approval and losing to Swann by 2% he was in trouble.  However, if we are talking 'a high disapproval and it's close to his approval' situation what about your idol Rick Santorum?

[Adlai Stevenson]

It's a property tax measure signed by Governor Rendell and being voted on this year.

[Adlai Stevenson]

However, if we are talking 'a high disapproval and it's close to his approval' situation what about your idol Rick Santorum?

1) What does that have to do with anything? When you lose you need to resort to this? Typical.

2) Up until the beginning of last year, Santorum had some of the best approval ratings and lowest disapprovals.

3) I've admitted that my political idol will have a very tough challenge and, at this point, is likely to lose. I fail to see your point here except maybe trying to distract attention when you get cranky and can't argue.

I think that Rendell and Santorum's polling situations are comparable although obviously their campaigns in Pennsylvania will be different.  Your point about Santorum is fair, but I wish people were not constantly accusing each other on this fourm of losing arguments.  Our viewpoints obviously do not coincide, but my own view is formed from my own personal perspective and is no less right or wrong than yours.  I'm trying to be fair... 

How am I trying to distract the attention away from discussion?  You took me up on a point I had made because you misunderstood what I said.  I said that if Rendell was running ads and losing by 45%-43% and had almost equal numbers of people saying they approved and disapproved of him, he was in trouble.  My argument backs yours up then.

[Adlai Stevenson]

How am I trying to distract the attention away from discussion?  You took me up on a point I had made because you misunderstood what I said.  I said that if Rendell was running ads and losing by 45%-43% and had almost equal numbers of people saying they approved and disapproved of him, he was in trouble.  My argument backs yours up then.

You wanted to turn it into an attack on Santorum. You called me out, another poster even noticed it, and then you were proven wrong again. I could care less about your Rendell argument at this point. When you want to me make this a "Gotcha!" type of discussion then I'll point out that you lost.

Could you please just drop this.  There is no 'gotcha' type situation.