New Tradesports rankings

[Torie]

Romney has made a lot of enemies. He once was my second choice, but his shameless pandering estranged me. I just can't take it.

[Torie]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

[Torie]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

Rudy is in his way. Florida is one place where Rudy's base is not going anywhere. And the Rudy voters and the Romney voters tend to come from the same socio-economic groups, albeit with some Salsa in Florida flavored in.

[Torie]

The latest suveyusa Florida poll showed an uptick for Rudy. He is close to McCain, with a gap between him and the rest to become the un-McCain in Florida. He needs to keep that going.

[Torie]

has anybody ever done an analysis of these markets with respect to their accuracy historically?  I know it's hard to actually determine what is accurate, but I have this running debate with someone. 

I contend these markets are inaccurate and don't have much bearing whatsoever on actual possibilities, and that the idea that they are helpful tools in analyzing the race is mostly a myth.

Anyone ever see an analysis of them... or compare them to polls in terms of accuracy.

I think they follow the polls, mostly.

My impression is that they are lagging indicators, not leading ones. I have not done any rigorous review however. Many of the markets are very thinly traded. Oddly enough, the Iowa election markets might be better. For example, it has the GOP with a 47% chance to win the presidency, while intrade has the number around 40%. I think the 47% is a better number, but who knows?

[Torie]

if they were 'lagging indicators' McCain would be favored to win the presidency right now.

Because of the Wright affair?

[Torie]

Today Intrade:

Obama          60.9
McCain          35.8

This is approaching a blow out!

It's been 60-40 since rocks cooled. It is the odds of winning of course, not a prediction of the percentage margin.