New Tradesports rankings

[True Democrat]

Of course, every time there is a major political event, people at Tradesports overreact.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani surge:

McCain 32.0
Giuliani 31.9
Huckabee 17.2
Romney 14.0

Obama takes the lead in winning individual:

Obama 36.0
Clinton 35.0
McCain 14.0
Giuliani 9.9
Huckabee 5.8
Romney 5.0

[Eraserhead]

Giuliani surge:

McCain 32.0
Giuliani 31.9
Huckabee 17.2
Romney 14.0

Obama takes the lead in winning individual:

Obama 36.0
Clinton 35.0
McCain 14.0
Giuliani 9.9
Huckabee 5.8
Romney 5.0

Hells yeah!!!111

[© tweed]

IEM prices at the close of yesterday

Clinton 50.8
Obama 47.3
Edwards 4.0
Rest of Field 1.1

McCain 33.2
Giuliani 22.8
Huckabee 22.0
Romney 13.0
Rest of Field 4.9
Thompson 3.8

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just a SLIGHT overreaction.

[minionofmidas]

What's Giuliani staying in the race for? To split the moderate vote and thus prevent John McCain?

[Reignman]

What's Giuliani staying in the race for? To split the moderate vote and thus prevent John McCain?

Maybe.

[Reignman]

Just a SLIGHT overreaction.

Not really. These were SOLID wins for Obama and Huckabee--8/9% each.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just a SLIGHT overreaction.

Not really. These were SOLID wins for Obama and Huckabee--8/9% each.

I think it is, don't get me wrong this changes the dynamics of this race drastically.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Apparently way too many InTraders still believe in Giuliani. On the 2008 parlays section, unsurprisingly every matchup with Obama made big gains. But the largest was Obama-Giuliani, a 10.9 gain. Obama-McCain went up only 6.0, and Obama-Huckabee 4.1. Obama-Romney actually went DOWN. So InTrade must think the Iowa caucuses don't matter at all on the GOP side I suppose as the results were in reverse.

[Verily]

A fool and his money are soon parted when betting on the Michigan primary. Obama is up to 30.0 even though he's not on the ballot.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The could write him in, could they do that?

[Verily]

The could write him in, could they do that?

Nope, Michigan doesn't accept write-ins unless a candidate petitions for them, and Obama has not done so (and the deadline has passed). There is simply no way whatsoever that Obama can win Michigan, yet some poor fool just bought him for 30.0 on Intrade.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The could write him in, could they do that?

Nope, Michigan doesn't accept write-ins unless a candidate petitions for them, and Obama has not done so (and the deadline has passed). There is simply no way whatsoever that Obama can win Michigan, yet some poor fool just bought him for 30.0 on Intrade.

Oh well, that is a waste of money.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton drops below 50% in the Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 49.4
Obama 47.7
Edwards 2.9

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will she go below 40% if she loses NH?

[Eraserhead]

Will she go below 40% if she loses NH?

Probably.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Obama are now dead even at 50.0 each.

[Mr. Morden]

And now, just a second ago, Obama pulled into the lead:

Obama 50.0
Clinton 49.0

[Verily]

It's the Rasmussen poll showing Obama ten points up over Clinton in NH.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama now above 50%:

Obama 51.0
Clinton 47.6
Edwards 4.0

[© tweed]

IEM closing prices last night

Clinton 51.0
Obama 46.5
Edwards 3.3
Rest of Field 0.8

McCain 34.1
Giuliani 23.1
Romney 16.0
Huckabee 15.2
Rest of Field 4.4
Thompson 3.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More from the inexplicable category, Giuliani for seemingly no reason whatsoever is GAINING. He's gained twice as much as McCain in the last period in fact with a 4.5 boost. With a corresponding drop for every other candidate, including Huckabee. No clue what the InTraders are thinking here, what has happened that has seriously increased the chances of the guy who has less delegates than Duncan Hunter?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Post-debate update.

Obama is now favored to be the Democratic nominee. Gore drops.

Giuliani gains at Romney and other's expenses. Hopeless candidates drop.


DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Obama 55.0
Clinton 53.0
Obama 42.0
Edwards 2.7
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.3
Biden 0.1

New Hampshire
Obama 76.0
Clinton 28.0
Edwards 0.6
Richardson 0.1


REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 33.0
Giuliani 32.0
Huckabee 16.3
Romney 10.0
Paul 4.2
Thompson 3.0
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.3
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

New Hampshire
McCain 85.0
Romney 14.1
Paul 3.0 (Field)
Huckabee 2.6
Thompson 0.2

[Aizen]

y is gore dropping?