New Tradesports rankings

[© tweed]

Why did Thompson surge?

[Verily]

No idea, but he seems to have settled back down:

Giuliani 28.2
McCain 20.1
Thompson 20.1
Romney 20.0
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.6
Brownback 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

-----

Clinton 52.0
Obama 28.6
Gore 9.6
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 2.1
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Back in December, when Jfern started this thread, the GOP odds were:

McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0

I doubt there were many people back then who would have guessed that in May we'd be at:

Giuliani 28.2
McCain 20.1
Fred Thompson 20.1
Romney 20.0

It just goes to show how the conventional wisdom on 2008 has taken so many bizarre twists and turns stretching all the way back to 2005.

Oh, and Romney is now leading in the NH primary market.

[SPC]

Back in December, when Jfern started this thread, the GOP odds were:

McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0

I doubt there were many people back then who would have guessed that in May we'd be at:

Giuliani 28.2
McCain 20.1
Fred Thompson 20.1
Romney 20.0

It just goes to show how the conventional wisdom on 2008 has taken so many bizarre twists and turns stretching all the way back to 2005.

Oh, and Romney is now leading in the NH primary market.

I predicted that Giuliani would surpass McCain, but I didn't predict anything about Fred Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain's now in freefall.  He's dropped all the way to 17.3.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama down, Richardson up.

Thompson and Romney gain, causing the 2-4th order candidates to all switch orders. McCain's 2000 campaign co-chair (Thompson) is now 2 places ahead of McCain. That one has got to hurt.


Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 27.8
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.5
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.1
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
Thompson 21.0
Romney 20.5
McCain 20.2
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

And now Romney is surging.  As I type this, it's now:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 27.0
F. Thompson 21.6
McCain 18.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Republican only update:

McCain continues tanking to 17.8, which is probably the lowest he's ever been except for a couple of days in 2005. Hagel also tanks.
Romney surges. He hit a record high of 32.0 earlier. Now at 26.5, he's still not far behind Giuliani.


Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
Romney 26.5
Thompson 21.6
McCain 17.8
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.4
Hagel 1.6
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has now surpassed Giuliani.  It's now:

Romney 28.9
Giuliani 28.1
Thompson 21.6
McCain 17.8

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

[© tweed]

This is the most bizzare week in the Republican market in memory.

[Eraserhead]

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

[© tweed]

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

I think he'd have a better chance than McCain.  Romney is very very bright and very smooth, although a complete sleaze, but they all are.  McCain is just an f'ing corpse at this point.

[Bacon King]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

Well, ya can't get 'em all right

[Verily]

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

More so than Gore (who isn't running) and McCain (who's been a complete disaster).

[Eraserhead]

You would think that Hillary would take a hit from her poor showings in the recent Iowa polls.

[Reignman]

You would think that Hillary would take a hit from her poor showings in the recent Iowa polls.

[Reignman]

This is the most bizzare week in the Republican market in memory.

Kind of true. It might just be a sort of filling-the-void thing for who's going to be the anti-Giuliani candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

Well, ya can't get 'em all right

Well, now the fourth thing on that list, "Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election", has indeed happened, as Gore is now ahead of McCain (and ahead of Giuliani!) in the winning individual market.  In fact, Romney is now the leading Republican in the general election market(!!!).  I think the only one of those four things I speculated on that hasn't happened is "Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination".  Not sure if that's happened.  In any case, it's not likely to happen again any time soon.

In the GOP nomination market, Romney has slipped back behind Giuliani, and McCain has slipped to what may be an all time low for him:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 25.5
Thompson 19.5
McCain 15.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton falls, Richardson gains.

Romney falls back down. McCain recovers a bit, he had a low of 15.5, just above his all time low of 15.0. Some of the 2nd tier candidates fall a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 49.6
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 3.4
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.4
Romney 22.2
Thompson 20.1
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Hagel 1.5
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[CultureKing]

Clinton falls, Richardson gains.

Romney falls back down. McCain recovers a bit, he had a low of 15.5, just above his all time low of 15.0. Some of the 2nd tier candidates fall a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 49.6
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 3.4
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.4
Romney 22.2
Thompson 20.1
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Hagel 1.5
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

Go Richardson!

[Jacobtm]

Someone bought a whole bunch of richardson last week at .5. They've multiplied their money by 7...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The bottom 3 Democrats gain.

McCain, Romney, Thompson, Bloomberg gain, with no real corresponding drops.

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.6
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 27.1
Romney 23.0
Thompson 21.0
McCain 18.9
Gingrich 2.6
Huckabee 2.3
Hagel 1.4
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani is in first, but down to 26.5, while McCain is in fourth, but up to 20.2.  It's remarkable how close Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson all are.  Basically, the market now believes that you might as well pick one of those four at random if you want a good guess as to who the nominee will be.  It's rare to see such a close 4-way race in *any* futures market.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yesterday's vote didn't seem to have had much affect on the Democratic numbers. Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Dodd go down a bit.

Thompson gains at McCain's expense. McCain is now a solid 4th.

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 28.6
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 26.9
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.0
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 1.4
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama gains
Thompson is just behind Romney now.


Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 30.6
Gore 10.0
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.4
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.7
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 1.4
Rice 1.0
Paul 1.0
Bloomberg 0.8
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1