U.K election maps

[afleitch]

That is a fantastic book and well worth buying as it deals with alternative poltiical histories rather than just history itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And here is '92:



*It's interesting to see how very different electoral geography was then; one big difference between now and '92 is in multi-cultural and well educated liberal areas (where Labour did a hell of a lot better in '92 than '05) and in working class suburbs (where the situation is reversed).

*An interesting feature of the election was regional backlashes; the largest was in Wales (where you'll note that Labour racked up a load of majorities in South Wales that were even more jaw-droppingly huge than normal. Also note the narrow win in Pembroke; Labour toppled a 10pt majority there and in a seat that's only previous Labour M.P (in the '50's and '60's) had actually been extremely conservative) and the PC gain in Ceredigion) while the big one in Scotland from '87 was drawing back somewhat. There was also a smaller one in East Lancashire, caused largely by textile job losses IIRC.

*Also note that the tiny Tory majority was based on a freakish string of extremely marginal wins...

[afleitch]

1992- The election the Conservatives wished Labour had won

[bullmoose88]

1992- The election the Conservatives wished Labour had won

Thats probably true. Heh.

Thanks Al.

[Peter]

If only Shirley had run against Roy or David had beaten Roy, then maybe we could have had a little more purple on that map.

I might do a map under my wet dream scenarios of the Alliance taking some chunks out of the Tories and Labour or something.

This book had a very interesting scenario where the SDP did much better in 83 and finished second in terms of share of the vote…

Amazon Bookstore

I bought the book within about a week of it going on sale. It's interesting but a number of the scenarios aren't really that plausible.

Whether the Alliance would have gotten 5% from both parties is highly debatable on this counterfactual. I think you have to go back long before the 83 election campaign began to get a sensible counterfactual build up here.

For example, it seems eminently more sensible to have had David Owen beat Roy Jenkins in the 1982 leadership contest as his thoughts on where to position the SDP would have been:
1. Electorally better
2. More independent from the Liberals than it turned out to be.

The fact that the SDP and Liberals ended up fighting half the constituencies each and never against one another is actually the result of a slip of the tongue by Bill Rodgers. It would have been quite plausible to see the two parties compete in 400 seats whilst leaving 250 as "target" seats.

With this greater independence, I think one can safely say that there is no more joint platform, though a united approach would be needed in the target seats and no large divergences in policy.

On the basis of an optimistic election result, one might see the following:
SDP gain 6 points from Labour and 4 points from Tories
Liberals gain 7 points from Tories and 3 points from Labour.
As you can see, they both gain 10 points total, but in different ways. This is roughly the scenario I am working on.

[Ben.]

On the basis of an optimistic election result, one might see the following:
SDP gain 6 points from Labour and 4 points from Tories
Liberals gain 7 points from Tories and 3 points from Labour.
As you can see, they both gain 10 points total, but in different ways. This is roughly the scenario I am working on.

Look forward to reading it, I agree that the SDP gaining both 5 pionts from the Tories and 5 pionts from Labour in circumstances of 1983 seems unlikley.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And here's 1979...



As you can see it was quite a strange election and very much a warning shot of future regional polarisation; note the fact that while it looks like a Tory landslide in the Southeast, up North Labour actually held a load of traditional marginals; including bellwethers like Bolton West, Keighley and of course Bury.
It's almost certain that Labour would have won had the election been called in 1978 and it's very likely that they'd have won had the turkeys (read: SNP) not voted for an early Christmas (and you can see how Scottish voters rewarded the SNP for that) in the no-confidence vote, and the election been held a few months later. Liberals did badly as well (look how hard Thorpe went down in North Devon...)

This was also the last election in which the real counties were used to draw constituencies from...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's southern Wales like? It appers there's a strip there that always vote ultra-Labour.

[Jake]

Cardiff? From what I've seen, it's filled with the very definition of a Labour voter.

[Peter]

What's southern Wales like? It appers there's a strip there that always vote ultra-Labour.

The bit you are referring to is basically a paradise for Al given that all that used to happen there was coal mining. Coal miners were usually a very tribal lot who voted Labour heavily.

Just to the south of the Labour voting belt is a blue strip, which is Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan. Some of the constituencies went Tory, some didn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would be the Valleys; an old coalfield/steel area (I say old but to be fair quite a lot of strip mining goes on down there these days. Still one deep pit open and it's doing pretty well). These days the economy there is based around manufacturing (although most of the factories are along the coast; a hell of a lot of people commute down from the Valleys to places like Baglan Bay daily).
Been solidly Labour since the '20's. Only serious challenges to Labour at a national level is the occasional Independent Labour candidate (one got elected in the seat based around Ebbw Vale last year for example) and frankly they don't count... last serious threat at national level from *outside* the mainstream Labour movement was the Communists... and even then only in one part of the Rhondda Valley...
Politically the whole area is extremely left wing economically and IIRC it has the highest rates of union membership in the country. It's also one of the most socially conservative parts of the U.K (although as Chris Bryant proves it's certainly not a bigoted area).

[afleitch]

Likewise with Lanarkshire



I use a slightly differnt colour scale from Al's, but it shows the deep red, almost 'brown' Labour vote in it's Lanarkshire heartlands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The bit you are referring to is basically a paradise for Al given that all that used to happen there was coal mining.

Were some steelworks in the bits that used to be in Monmouthshire though. And if you go back far enough there was some iron mining as well.

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And there families still do

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Just like to take this oppertunity to point out that the extremely dark red constituency in western Cardiff was Mr Speaker's seat...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any suggestions for the next election to do? Anything from 1955 onwards is mappable.
I'm thinking of doing 1964 or 1997, but am open to suggestions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1955, 1955, 1955 !!!!!

O.K

[Peter]

I wouldn't mind seeing Youainteverhaditsogood at some point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now for '55...



1. Obviously a hell of a lot of things have changed in half a century; both demographically (looks at rural eastern England and thinks of a time when agriculture was still a big employer; looks at how London has both expanded and got "thinner" etc, etc...) and also politically (looks at the Orange vote in central Scotland... and also much of Lancashire, especially Liverpool and Manchester, looks at north/west Wales before that bloody dam was built, looks at the crooked deals with Tories that kept the Liberals semi-alive... etc, etc...).
2. And yes, your eyesight is fine, the Liberals won a seat in Bolton, a seat in Huddersfield and also Carmarthen [later lost to Labour in a by-election; Labour's candidate was DLG's daughter] while failing to win any in the West Country or the Highlands...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

And now for 1983...



Couple of points:

*The SDP have their own colour [a sort of purple; SDP colours were red and blue so...] which shows up fine on my computer, but might not on some others. If you get confused, I can give you a list of SDP seats.

*Interesting to note that, despite the landslide, very few Tory seats had majorities over 40%. It's also strange to see so many Labour strongholds with such small majorities.

*This election was the last one in the Pre-Benn era of Chesterfield

*As always if the forum auto-resizes the map, just copy it onto a paint file to look at.

That Year has always made me a tad misty-eyed, what I'd give to have another year (and woman!) like that..

[Rural Radical]

1955

Al,
The Labour vote in NW Wales will come back IMO. Can you do 1945 ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour vote in NW Wales will come back IMO.

It's certainly *started* to... after all we hold Ynys Mon again and have re-asserted our natural (ie; 2nd at the very least) place in Caernarfon, following boundary changes it'll be ours again methinks.
But the question is how far the road to recovery will go... know what? I think we need another Goronwy Roberts...

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Not at the moment; for one thing I don't have the results by constituency

[Peter]

The Labour vote in NW Wales will come back IMO.

It's certainly *started* to... after all we hold Ynys Mon again and have re-asserted our natural (ie; 2nd at the very least) place in Caernarfon, following boundary changes it'll be ours again methinks.
But the question is how far the road to recovery will go... know what? I think we need another Goronwy Roberts...

Speak for yourself, but I wouldn't mind seeing another Welsh Dragon.

[Harry Hayfield]

Can you do a Welsh map for the other parties please? (I.e Dem from Wales, Ind from Wales, Others from Wales)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can you do a Welsh map for the other parties please? (I.e Dem from Wales, Ind from Wales, Others from Wales)

Yep; which election? Could do it for the last Assembly election if you want.

[Harry Hayfield]

I actually mean icons (as in the icons showing the party and location of members), but if you are offering the Welsh Assembly then please do! Either 1999 or 2003

[Rural Radical]

And now for '55...



1. Obviously a hell of a lot of things have changed in half a century; both demographically (looks at rural eastern England and thinks of a time when agriculture was still a big employer; looks at how London has both expanded and got "thinner" etc, etc...) and also politically (looks at the Orange vote in central Scotland... and also much of Lancashire, especially Liverpool and Manchester, looks at north/west Wales before that bloody dam was built, looks at the crooked deals with Tories that kept the Liberals semi-alive... etc, etc...).
2. And yes, your eyesight is fine, the Liberals won a seat in Bolton, a seat in Huddersfield and also Carmarthen [later lost to Labour in a by-election; Labour's candidate was DLG's daughter] while failing to win any in the West Country or the Highlands...

Al

Whats the blue dot in the middle of the Yorkshire Coalfield ?