Political future of North Carolina?

[THG]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

[THG]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

This seems like the key analysis. 

In retrospect, it really shouldn't have surprised us that Georgia flipped and NC didn't.  As you say, GOP had no room to grow in rural areas while Atlanta kept getting bigger.  In NC the urban areas are getting bigger but that's being offset by growth in GOP margins in rural areas.  And I suppose exurban areas there are growing as well.

It does make me think TX really is on the verge of flipping because the numbers there look a lot more like GA than NC (GOP being very maxed out in rural areas).

I agree with your analysis of NC and Georgia (I saw Georgia flipping before NC as early as early 2017 or so), but I don’t agree with your analysis of Texas.

The only thing with Texas is that it has countervailing trends (Houston and San Antonio being maxed out for Democrats even if they keep gaining in Austin and DFW). Also, Democrats collapsing in the RGV isn’t helping- even if it isn’t the largest population base, it is representative of Republicans gaining massively among a key population in Texas (and Democrats collapsing with that same demographic).

I suspect that the countervailing trends in the metropolitan parts of Texas will be what prevents it from flipping for another decade.

[THG]

Up in the air/somewhat static for now, but alarm bells should be going off at GOP headquarters because it’s really on a knife-edge at this point. I’m not sure for how much longer they can hang on to their unusually wide margins in the exurban parts of the state, some of which even swung/trended R in 2020 — once those start going the way of places like Forsyth, GA, it’s close to game over. I maintain that there’s not that much more potential for rural gains in this state, as there’s a growing presence of left-leaning voters in the western part of the state (mostly college students, transplants, and workers in the resort/tourism industries, with spillover from Asheville being a factor as well) and the Piedmont/Northern Coastal areas aren’t populous enough even if Republicans make further gains there.

They will need some other countertrend like retirees flooding in or dramatic R gains among non-white voters in the urban centers. We’re not going to see VA and GA zooming leftward forever (with the former close to having turned into a routinely double-digit D state) while NC barely budges, even if the trend in the first two states is more pronounced/rapid.

The GOP is not even remotely close to maxed out in the rurals of NC or even many of the exurbs.

[THG]

I think it will remain a swing state at least for another generation. Democrats still have room to fall across statewide (some places I'd argue substantially), although it will depend on whether or not Democrats are able to hold onto Wilmington, as well as expand across the  historically-conservative Charlotte suburbs, which while still Republican-leaning is starting to have a noticeable Democratic minority. Growth around Raleigh isn't out of the question either. Nash county, a suburb of Raleigh flipped in 2020, although that remains a swing county as of right now.

Nash also went blue in 2012. It’s a swing county.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

Ohhhhh I apologize. I misread your question.

I believe that once they reach the age of current day boomers, they will. I think these demographics will shift more to the right once they’re older (more so Gen X than Millennials), though I’m not sure by how much they’ll shift right.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

My answer to that was yes- unless house prices in the sunbelt rocket up.

If house prices in the sunbelt states we mentioned rocket up long term (NC, TX, AZ, FL), I could see them moving to even cheaper states such as New Mexico, Oklahoma, or hell, even certain rust belt states (think Wisconsin, potentially).

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

My answer to that was yes- unless house prices in the sunbelt rocket up.

If house prices in the sunbelt states we mentioned rocket up long term (NC, TX, AZ, FL), I could see them moving to even cheaper states such as New Mexico, Oklahoma, or hell, even certain rust belt states (think Wisconsin, potentially).

I'm amazed no one really knows about St. George, Utah.

I know someone who goes to university there. A lot of people are moving there, apparently.