Political future of North Carolina?

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

Ohhhhh I apologize. I misread your question.

I believe that once they reach the age of current day boomers, they will. I think these demographics will shift more to the right once they’re older (more so Gen X than Millennials), though I’m not sure by how much they’ll shift right.

[Person Man]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

Ohhhhh I apologize. I misread your question.

I believe that once they reach the age of current day boomers, they will. I think these demographics will shift more to the right once they’re older (more so Gen X than Millennials), though I’m not sure by how much they’ll shift right.

So, if you had to guess, a lot of these Lean R areas could swing back to toss up but not necessarily Lean D.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

My answer to that was yes- unless house prices in the sunbelt rocket up.

If house prices in the sunbelt states we mentioned rocket up long term (NC, TX, AZ, FL), I could see them moving to even cheaper states such as New Mexico, Oklahoma, or hell, even certain rust belt states (think Wisconsin, potentially).

[Person Man]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

My answer to that was yes- unless house prices in the sunbelt rocket up.

If house prices in the sunbelt states we mentioned rocket up long term (NC, TX, AZ, FL), I could see them moving to even cheaper states such as New Mexico, Oklahoma, or hell, even certain rust belt states (think Wisconsin, potentially).

I'm amazed no one really knows about St. George, Utah.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.

My answer to that was yes- unless house prices in the sunbelt rocket up.

If house prices in the sunbelt states we mentioned rocket up long term (NC, TX, AZ, FL), I could see them moving to even cheaper states such as New Mexico, Oklahoma, or hell, even certain rust belt states (think Wisconsin, potentially).

I'm amazed no one really knows about St. George, Utah.

I know someone who goes to university there. A lot of people are moving there, apparently.