UK General Discussion

[Phony Moderate]

I would strongly advise anyone to avoid the comments section on the BBC's main article on the Census figures.

[Phony Moderate]

What are the chances that UKIP will profess themselves to be the champions of electoral reform after 2015?

[Phony Moderate]

Haha.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22328898

[Phony Moderate]

And a week before the 1979 election.... http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=37&view=wide

[Phony Moderate]

And a week before the 1979 election.... http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=37&view=wide

Thatcher on 40% is a bit different from Ed Miliband on 31%.

That was on April 2nd. On April 26th, she was on 31%.

[Phony Moderate]

And a week before the 1979 election.... http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=37&view=wide

Thatcher on 40% is a bit different from Ed Miliband on 31%.

That was on April 2nd. On April 26th, she was on 31%.

I'm sure once the Conservative campaign mauls Ed away, his numbers shall drop a bit too. Maybe a nice 24% or so?

Well, maybe.

[Phony Moderate]

What are the rules and procedures for Tory leadership elections nowadays anyway? Could someone challenge Cameron in the same way that Heseltine challenged Thatcher, and it would be a members ballot or an MPs only ballot?  Or would there have to be a VONC (as was the case with IDS)?

[Phony Moderate]

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That's....an interesting way for him to put it.

[Phony Moderate]

Surreal headline of the week:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/12/uk-coal-nationalised-ministers-fire-pensions

[Phony Moderate]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

One thing I've noticed in Canada is that conservative parties have tended to underpoll in between campaigns since about 1990. Does the same pattern exist in the UK?

Last time it happened was 1992 (other occasions were October 1974, 1970, 1966 and 1959). The Labour share is often overestimated (2005, 2001, 1997, 1992, 1987, October 1974, 1970, 1966, 1959) but sometimes underestimated too (2010, 1983, February 1974....and possibly 1950 and 1951 too, although I don't have the figures with me right now).

[Phony Moderate]

Still not as big as the SSM rebellion though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22547910

[Phony Moderate]

Survation poll:

Lab - 35%
Con - 24% (-5)
UKIP - 22% (+6)
Lib Dems - 11%

According to Electoral Calculus, UKIP would actually win a seat on this (Camborne and Redruth apparently).... Survation is not the most experienced pollster though.

[Phony Moderate]

Sounds as if there's been a serious attack in Woolwich.

[Phony Moderate]

Some very disturbing rumours about the incident going around right now....I suppose we should wait for more official sources.

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

[Phony Moderate]

There's a rather interesting story on the Daily Mail website right now.

[Phony Moderate]

So Ed Balls announces that Labour will stick to Tory spending targets if they win the next election. Always a joy to hear.

A New Labour man for sure.

[Phony Moderate]

She bears a striking resemblance to a certain Granthamian.

[Phony Moderate]

I've seen him on old BBC election night coverage before (as an analyst); he used to be a regular on it.

[Phony Moderate]

The shouts of "resign!" remind me of the final episode of the original House of Cards series.

[Phony Moderate]

Yeah, Labour probably can't win a majority with Miliband's current personal numbers.

[Phony Moderate]

Seem to recall a poll from some time ago showing that UKIP voters were more in favour of renationalising key utilities than the public as a whole.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-benn-fears-grow-seriously-3134955

[Phony Moderate]

Unlike Hague, Ken Clarke is not standing down as an MP.

He strikes me as someone destined to become Father of the House.

Anyway, all of this is terrible news for Ed Miliband, obviously.

[Phony Moderate]

By-election polling has actually improved somewhat during this parliament.