Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

What is it Stagg said?

Gogarty was speaking on the Social Welfare Bill (which will implement the first cuts to social welfare payments since 1924). He was subjected to a numebr of heckles from 3 Labour Deputies, most immediately before his outburst by Stagg.

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[Јas]

Also, see my username.

[Јas]

First poll of 2010 out yesterday - an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll (MRBI having just recently joined the Ipsos group).

	22 Jan	26 Sept	22 Nov	2007
	Ipsos MRBI	TNS mrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	31	36	27
Labour	24	25	17	10
Fianna Fáil	22	20	23	42
Sinn Féin	8	9	10	7
Green	3	4	5	5
Ind/Other	11	11	9	9

Numbers for FF, FG and Labour are identical to where they were for the first MRBI poll of last year.

7th MRBI poll in a row with FG ahead of FF; 4th in a row with Labour ahead of FF.

Satisfaction Ratings

Gilmore	45	(+1)
Kenny	31	(-1)
Adams	31	(+3)
Cowen	26	(+3)
Gormley	24	(+2)
Government	19	(+5)

[Јas]

When is the next census in the Republic of Ireland? 

10 April 2011

Does it still look like there might never be an election held under the boundaries drawn up in 2007 (were they passed into law without amendment, by the way?) if the current Dáil runs full-term?  Or have things changed legally since then or been revealed over time not to be what you then thought they might be (like how soon after a census new boundaries have to be drawn)?

The last Constituency Commission review was passed without amendment, as is now the norm.

The law has indeed changed since then on this issue with the passing of section 9 of the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2009. The Constituency Commission will now be established after the publication of the preliminary census figures (usually produced around 3 months after census date). The Commission is then mandated to have its report ready no more than 3 months after the publication of the final results of the Census (usually produced around 11/12 months after the census date).

Without legislative change, the latest the next Dáil election could be is 14 July 2012 - though, in normal circumstances, the tendancy has been for May/June elections.

While it's theoretically possible to get new constituency boundaries in place, I doubt it would happen. It would presumably require the Government to pass the changes as one of its last acts before dissolution, and I doubt there would be the political will (on any side of the House) for the changes to be implemented.

[Јas]

Hands up, I didn't foresee the Government majority increasing this year, but...

Last June's by-election winner in Dublin South for Fine Gael, George Lee, has resigned from the party and from the Dáil after just 8 months in office. The respected former RTÉ (state broadcaster) economics editor has left because he was given no role in helping formulate the party's economic policy. He will now return to RTÉ in an as yet unknown capacity.

- Irish Times story

The move will/should come as a massive blow to FG leader, Enda Kenny, who has only recently apologised to his parliamentary party for a number of poor media performances in recent weeks, and who has faced constant issues with his satisfaction ratings lagging persistently behind his party, despite facing the most unpopular Irish Government since polling began.

I'd like to hope that this will provide sufficient momentum to dispatch Kenny altogether, but I'm probably being too optimistic.

Anyway, the new Dáil math is below...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	72
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3
Fine Gael	51	(-1)
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	2	(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S)

Government	85	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	7

[Јas]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

No idea when the by-election will be held - as you note, it is effectively a decision for FG. Though I'd suggest that it's more likely than not that the two by-elections will eventually be held on the same day.

Fianna Fáil still aren't ready for Donegal SW (though Sen. Brian Ó Donaill will almost certainly be their candidate), and FG won't rush to hold Dublin S any time soon - the loss of Lee is a huge embarrassment.; there is no obvious FG candidate; and, anyway, re-asserting/ending Kenny's leadership is the more pressing issue.

[Јas]

Kenny lives.

- Irish Times

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punderful!

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Almost certainly of no interest to any one else, but that never stopped me before...

The Government is down one member of the Seanad this morning as Sen. Deirdre de Búrca has done a George Lee, resigning both from her party (the Greens) and the Oireachtas.

Official reason:

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Unofficial reason:
No prospect of any future with the Greens. Failed to get one of the jobs for the boys in Brussels.

Anyway, the resignation will have minimal effect on the Government majority in the Seanad - which will temporarily fall to 5 votes. de Búrca's seat had been one as a Taoiseach's nominee, so one imagines it will be back up to 6 vote majority shortly on the new nomination being made.

New Seanad math:

Fianna Fáil	28
Fine Gael	15
Labour	6
Green	2	(-1)
Sinn Féin	1
Independents	7
Vacant	1	(+1)

Government	32	(FF, Green, O'Malley, Harris)
Opposition	27	(FG, Lab, SF, Mullen, O'Toole, Norris, Quinn, Ross)
Majority	5

[Јas]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

No idea when the by-election will be held - as you note, it is effectively a decision for FG. Though I'd suggest that it's more likely than not that the two by-elections will eventually be held on the same day.

Fianna Fáil still aren't ready for Donegal SW (though Sen. Brian Ó Donaill will almost certainly be their candidate), and FG won't rush to hold Dublin S any time soon - the loss of Lee is a huge embarrassment.; there is no obvious FG candidate; and, anyway, re-asserting/ending Kenny's leadership is the more pressing issue.

Looks like the Government don't know when the by-elections will be held either...

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- Irish Times

[Јas]

Can the Dáil force out cabinet members, or was the vote of confidence simply advisory?

Good question - I'm not sure.

I'm not aware of a motion of confidence against an individual Minister having ever been won by the opposition. Though politically, the position of any such Minister would presumably be untenable, constitutionally, Ministers serve at the pleasure of the Taoiseach.

It may be complicated depending on whether one considers the confidence motion to indicate that the Taoiseach has lost majority support in the Dáil...

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[Јas]

And the heads keep on coming...

Trevor Sargent (Green-Dublin N) has this evening resigned his post as Minister of State for Food and Horticulture. In a story broken only a few hours ago by the Evening Herald, Sargent wrote letters (back around June 2008) asking a prosecuting Garda to drop a criminal prosecution against one of his constituents. (The case proceeded and the man was subsequently convicted on a charge of threatening and abusive behaviour.)

Sargent is the former Green Party leader and TD since 1992 (when he was the sole Green TD). He was the safest Green seat going into the last election - but no such thing exists now.


I'm not sure which is more surprising, the Sargent letter, or that the Evening Herald appear to actually have journalists on staff.

---

In other news, Mark Dearey (one of only 3 Greens to get elected at the local elections in 2007) has been appointed to the Seanad to replace Deirdre de Búrca, following her recent resignation - thus restoring the Government majority in that chamber to 6.

[Јas]

Change Places!

Any suggestions for which cabinet member is the Mad Hatter, the Dormouse, the March Hare, and Alice?

[Јas]

Minister for Arts, Sports and Tourism, Martin Cullen (FF-Waterford) has resigned from Cabinet and the Dáil due to a back ailment that has been troubling him in recent months. That he was going to be leaving the cabinet was no surprise - the story has been foreshadowed for some time. (Indeed, it was quite possible he could have been removed involuntarily in the upcoming reshuffle anyway.) But the resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

The new Dáil math...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	71	(-1)
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3
Fine Gael	51
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	84	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	6

[Јas]

[Cullen's] resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

I imagine that by-election will also not be held until "the back end of the year" at the earliest, but would you care to try and handicap that by-election this far out.  Also, how about those in Donegal SW and Dublin S?  You said on January 31 that you figured Fine Gael would be most likely to take that seat (or more likely than Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil which are the only other two parties of note that seem to exist in that area, although there are always Independent candidates), but that was before George Lee's embarrassing (for Fine Gael at least) resignation from both Fine Gael and the Dáil.  Labour would seem like the favorites (heavy favorites") in Dublin South, while Donegal SW would be an FG-SF battle which might hinge on whether Fine Gael has pulled itself back together by then.  The situation in Waterford would seem to be similar to that in Donegal SW except (hold on before you freek out) replace SF with Labour.  But I'd be interested in hearing your analysis.  Thanks.

Waterford should be a FG gain. Labour, as you rightly say, should be the main competition - but it should be a fairly fragmented vote on the left between them, Sinn Féin and the Workers' Party. If the local elections last year are anything to go by however, the Fianna Fáil vote could well hold up well enough to be decisive. Candidate selections will be important.

I don't accept, by the by, that Labour are necessarily favourites (never mind strong favourites) in Dublin South - indeed, I should think that FG could well retain the seat. Alex White of Labour should actually have a shot this time, but presuming FG can come up with a reasonably good candidate (and the local FG party properly back that candidate) then they have a strong enough opportunity, notwithstanding the embarrassment of Lee's resignation to hold the seat.

[Јas]

Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona dhíobh!

[Јas]

Bump.  Any official (or otherwise credible) word on when the by-elections in Donegal South West, Dublin South and Waterford will be?  Or has Brian Cowan decided to hold a snap election so he can lead the Fianna Fáil majority government that would surely result? 

No sign of the by-elections yet at all. Unlikely to arise before the autumn - when an election will be held for the new directly elected mayor of Dublin, and probably one or two referenda as well.

Of course, FG could probably force the by-election in Dublin South (and no doubt would bring huge pressure to bear on FF to call the other 2 by-elections) but still embarrassed by the George Lee fiasco, they seem perfectly happy to try and hide that particular by-election amongst all those other elections in the autumn.

[Јas]

Would Fine Gael be willing to be a junior coalition partner to Labour if such a situation were to arise?

Hard to say - depends on the leadership and on the actual ratio of Lab-FG TDs (FG could, and maybe would, still come out with more members than Lab on these numbers). I'd expect FG to at least pitch for a rotating Taoiseach deal though. The negotiating strength would be influenced by whether Labour could credibly put together an alternative Government (Lab-FF[-?]).

[Јas]

Always funny to see how clannish Irish politics is.

Indeed

There's at least 2 sets of brothers in the Dáil at the minute (one of which also have an aunt also there). One husband and wife. One brother and sister-in-law combo.

Not to mention a ridiculous amount of nepotism - in terms of the number of TDs who replaced their parents in the Dáil (including the Taoiseach, Tánaiste, Minister for Finance, the Leader of the Opposition...).

[Јas]

Any idea if Richard Bruton will immediately move the writ of the Dublin South by-election if he becomes Fine Gael leader?

The matter hasn't been raised at all - so I don't really know. I suspect not though.

The FG parliamentary party (that's TDs, Senators and MEPs) meet later today to vote (by secret ballot) on a motion of confidence in Kenny. (Kenny prevented a motion of confidence at the frontbencher's meeting on Tuesday, which it looks like it was too close to call.)

Kenny's side think they'll win 41-29 today, Bruton's people think it will be a marginal win for them. Should Kenny fail to carry the party, a leadership contest will proceed with candidates having 7 days to declare.


As an aside, the Government won their confidence motion in the Dáil on Tuesday (82-77). Nothing particularly surprising in the voting.

[Јas]

Kenny has won the confidence motion.

Under recent FG tradition (noting their belief in principles of democracy, openness and transparancy) the result will not be made public. The two persons who know the result, Party Chair, Deputy Padraic McCormack (Kenny supporter) and Senator Paschal Donohoe, have been (I kid not) sworn to secrecy.

[Јas]

The Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2010 caused much hubbub in the Dáil yesterday evening. The bill, a Green Party initiative, seeks to prohibit the hunting of deer with dogs - and caused serious rancour for various FF Deputies as well as others.

Harry McGee's blog covers the events/fall-out well enough.

The result today is another FF TD expelled from the parliamentary party (with another's fate to be decided later today); a Labour TD with his whip removed; normally pro-Govt Independents Lowry and Healy-Rae voting against the Govt; but also rare support for the Govt from other Independents (normally voting against them) O'Sullivan and McGrath.

[Јas]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

Reading the Dáil report, I've not seen any comments opposing the bill. I heard news reports indicating Mattie McGrath had spoken against it, but haven't seen any direct quotes or noticed it in any transcript yet.

[Јas]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

It might be the third most controversial bill before the Dáil this week. Maybe.

Anyway, I found Mattie McGrath's (FF-Tipperary S) contributions^{1 2}. He is the only Deputy who appears to have objected to the progression of the bill as a whole (rather than having issues with particular aspects/amendments). His objections though don't appear to relate to the creation of same-sex civil partnership, but rather to the provisions dealing with the accrual of rights to cohabiting couples (of, *I think* any orientation) owing to the simple longevity of cohabitation, rather than through any formal legal process as he would ostensibly prefer.

At any rate, the bill passed without the need for a full vote of the Dáil. It should be in the Seanad next week.

[Јas]

What would our forum Irish experts peg as the likelihood that the High Court forces the Government to call an election in Donegal South-West in the case being heard in October?

Remote. The Court will almost certainly rule it is entirely a matter for the Dáil to set the date for such an election. It’s also becoming increasingly apparent that the Government intend to chance their arm at not calling them until early next year. The legislation for a directly elected Dublin mayor won’t be ready early enough in the autumn to run it this year – and it seems likely that the Government will try to hold the by-elections at the same time as that.

If the Government loses that case, what would the likely impact be on the scheduling of by-elections to fill the other two current vacancies?

They'd effectively have to call those by-elections at the same time.

Also, what was the aftermath after the dust settled from the vote on the stag hunting bill that you described in June? ElectionsIreland.org and Wikipedia differ on who lost their party whip as a result of that vote.

We're now in the summer recess, so things have quietened down quite a bit. The session certainly had a rather chaotic end though in terms of persons losing their whips. From what I can see, neither electionsireland nor wikipedia are entirely accurate. My count is below, the Government majority is unchanged, though it’s a much shakier majority than it was, going into another difficult budget in December.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	4	(Devins, McDaid, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	84	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	6