Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).

Eh...so your argument is what exactly? Rasmussen on purpose tried to inflate McCain's poll numbers in swing states so that they could look incompetent and then tried to cover it up by inflating Obama's poll numbers in other states so as to make them look even worse?

Er... no? When did I say anything like that? I don't believe that Rasmussen has some secret pro-Republican agenda and that he's fixing his polls. He just didn't do as well this cycle as he has in past cycles, and something about how he took his polls gave them a bit of a Republican lean.

I looked at the final margin in Rass's polls versus the final real margin in 18 swing states (CO, NV, NM, AZ, MT, MN, IA, MO, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, and NH). In only four of these states was Obama's margin over-polled, AZ, GA, MO, and MN (and in GA and MO, the difference was less than 1, which could have just been a matter of rounding). In all the other states he under-polled Obama, sometimes by small margins of 1-2, but more than half the time by larger margins of 3-8.

[Lief 🗽]

States that neither candidate campaigns in are more susceptible to large, random swings, so I don't think looking at those really tells us anything. The swing states, where most people have made up their mind by election day, should be a lot easier to poll, and I think that how a pollster does in those states is much more important.

[Lief 🗽]

States that neither candidate campaigns in are more susceptible to large, random swings, so I don't think looking at those really tells us anything. The swing states, where most people have made up their mind by election day, should be a lot easier to poll, and I think that how a pollster does in those states is much more important.

I'm not sure I agree. If anything, the opinion in those states should be pretty stable since it isn't being hammered by the campaigning? Do you have any evidence for this claim? It seems to me like you're awfully close to arbitrarily throwing out data that doesn't fit your conclusions.

I think that, if anything, being hammered by campaigning would stabilize voting patterns. I think that someone would be more likely to solidify his support for one candidate or the other if he's constantly being shown ads, being called by the campaign, being sent literature, etc. Meanwhile, voters in states like New York and Alabama are much more on their own.

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup's Obama favorable ratings today:

71% favorable (+1)
19% unfavorable (-2)

BLAGO BUMP

[Lief 🗽]

A 50-state hypothetical 2012 Obama vs. Palin map would be hilarious right now.

[Lief 🗽]

Is Barack Obama the most popular black man in the history of the United States?

[Lief 🗽]

Is Barack Obama the most popular black man in the history of the United States?

who disapproves of Wayne Brady?

Barack Obama presumably has higher name recognition.