EP elections 2014

[EPG]

Thats true. But if M5S and UPyD can not align, i do not think an alternative left group can be formed.

No, you're right, probably not. UPyD has more outside options that M5S. For instance, they'll probably have more MEPs to offer ALDE than the current regionalist parties. M5S is rare as an anti-EU party that is neither far left nor far right. They may end up as non-inscrits, but would they care?

[Tender Branson]

Latest Meinungsraum/NEWS Magazine poll (online panel, sample = 800):

24% SPÖ (no change compared with 2009 elections)
23% FPÖ (+10%)
20% ÖVP (-10%)
13% NEOS (+13%)
13% Greens (+3%)
  1% HPM (-17%)
  6% Others ("A different Europe" (KPÖ/Pirates/Wandel), REKOS, BZÖ, TS, EU-STOP, etc.)

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=452

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM/Guardian poll...

Labour 35% (+19)
Tories 25% (-3)
UKIP 20% (+3)
LDems 9% (-5)
Greens 7% (-1)
Others 4% (-14)

Take with as much credibility as seems appropriate for a poll of the Euro elections in this country.

[swl]

Who is in 'others'? (-14 is a lot)

[Tender Branson]

Who is in 'others'? (-14 is a lot)

If I remember it correctly, the BNP did very well in 2009.

And a lot of minor parties I guess.

[FredLindq]

First Swedish EP-poll. A bit odd result
Socialdemokraterna      27,3   (In 2009 24,4) 
Vänsterpartiet          10,8    (5,7)   
Miljöpartiet            15,7   (11,0) 
                                       
Moderaterna             20,9   (18,8)   
Centerpartiet            4,5    (5,5)   
Folkpartiet             10,9   (13,6)   
Kristdemokraterna        2,3    (4,7)   
                                       
Sverigedemokraterna      4,8    (3,3)   
                                       
Piratpartiet             1,3    (7,1)   

[FredLindq]

Seats
Socialdemokraterna (S&D)  6      (Current 6)  No change
Vänsterpartiet   (EUL-NGL)        2 (1) +1
Miljöpartiet (Green-EFA)               3 (2) +1
                                            
Moderaterna  (EPP)       5 (4) +1  
Centerpartiet (ALDE)           1 (1) No change
Folkpartiet  (ALDE)              2 (3) -1    
Kristdemokraterna (EPP)   0 (1) -1
                                            
Sverigedemokraterna (probably EAF)  1 (0) +1
                                      
Piratpartiet (Green-EFA)                  0 (2) -2  


Accordning to the EP-groups
S&D 6  No change
EPP 5 No change
Green-EFA 3 -1
EUL-NGL 2+1
ALDE 2 (-1)
EAF 1 (+1)  

[Zanas]

Aren't the Sweden Democrats polling like half of what they poll in national polls ? I would think an EP election would be one where they would thrive on apathy from other voters and euro-scepticism.

[FredLindq]

I totally agree. They are polling around 9-10%. It also seems strange with the high numbers for MP. They are now pro-EU but was against and therefore got 14% in the 90s. So it seems odd for them to get so high Numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who is in 'others'? (-14 is a lot)

The last Euro elections were held in the middle of the parliamentary expenses scandal and on the usual low turnout, so all sorts of cranks and weirdos polled well.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Some news from Greece:  the two parties in the government alliance, ND and PASOK agreed to replace the candidate lists and allow the voters to determine which candidates are elected.  Each party will be allowed to have up to 42 names on their ballot.  One of the reasons they are doing that is because they have a thin majority and they're worried that if some of the candidates are disappointed by their position on the list, the government would collapse.  The other reason is because they want to raise interest in the elections.

There is a good chance PASOK may not even have its own ballot and be replaced by the "58" as they call themselves, a movement that is attempting to rebuild the center-left movement.  They hope that the public will be more willing to vote for a new party, but from what I have seen in the polls most center-left voters are rather disappointed in the "58" since they're pretty much all PASOK members.  The "58" tried to work with DIMAR who refused to because they don't want to be associated with PASOK.  DIMAR however will be joining Schulz's S&D group if they manage to elect an MEP.  To be honest, I'm not sure any of PASOK, DIMAR or the "58" will surpass the 3% threshold.

SYRIZA leader Tsipras has been touring Europe to generate interest in his candidacy for president of the EU Commission with the EUL-NGL party.  In Italy he has already won the support of SEL (Sinistra Ecologia Liberta) and he also had a meeting with PM Letta.

The Independent Greeks have joined ECR but I think they will struggle to elect an MEP.

Golden Dawn is also very active and they have been campaigning with Nick Griffin of the BNP (probably a bad idea for both of them).  They will probably try to form an alliance with various far-right groups deemed too extreme by Le Pen's EAF group but I don't think they will succeed.

The Green Party MEP removed his name from the list of candidates after coming second in the primary and asked Cohn-Bendit to play a more active role in the internal elections.  I don't think they stand much of a chance to elect an MEP again since most of their voters have turned to SYRIZA.

There are a few liberal parties that cooperated in the 2012 elections (Drasi led by MEP and former ND member Skylakakis, Dimiourgia Xana or Recreate which is more libertarian, and the Liberal Alliance led by gay activist Vallianatos) but after their failure to win any seats in 2012 I doubt they will work together again.

Another minor party that might surprise is the anti-capitalist ANTARSYA which appeals to leftists who feel that SYRIZA is becoming too centrist.

In the most recent poll (which probably doesn't mean much since there 2 or 3 polls released every week in Greece) the results were:
ND (EPP) 19%
SYRIZA (EUL-NGL) 20%
PASOK (S&D) 5.3%
Indep. Greeks (ECR) 4.5%
GD 7%
DIMAR (S&D) 3.5%
KKE (EUL-NGL) 7%
ANTARSYA 1.8%
Union for the Homeland and the people (a vehicle for conservative MP Polydoras who left ND recently) 1.3%
NEEL (a vehicle for former PASOK MP Loverdos)  1%
Others 3.7%
Undecided/Not voting 25.1%

The number of MEPs elected by party according to this poll would be:

EUL-NGL 9 (SYRIZA 7 + KKE 2)
EPP (ND) 6
S&D 3 (PASOK 2 + DIMAR 1)
ECR (Ind. Greeks) 1
Golden Dawn 2 (GD is part of the European National Front a group which includes the Nat. Democratic Party of Germany, the Falange in Spain and other similar groups, but as I said they will really struggle to find enough partners to form an alliance).

[Diouf]

SYRIZA leader Tsipras has been touring Europe to generate interest in his candidacy for president of the EU Commission with the EUL-NGL party.  In Italy he has already won the support of SEL (Sinistra Ecologia Liberta) and he also had a meeting with PM Letta.

Will Tspiras be on the list himself, and if so when elected will he take up a MEP seat instead of his current seat in the Greek parliament?

[justfollowingtheelections]

SYRIZA leader Tsipras has been touring Europe to generate interest in his candidacy for president of the EU Commission with the EUL-NGL party.  In Italy he has already won the support of SEL (Sinistra Ecologia Liberta) and he also had a meeting with PM Letta.

Will Tspiras be on the list himself, and if so when elected will he take up a MEP seat instead of his current seat in the Greek parliament?

I don't know, but I doubt it.

[Diouf]

New Gallup poll for Bulgaria

Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) S&D 6 (+2)
Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) EPP 5 (=)
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) ALDE 2 (-1)
Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO) + Bulgaria without Censorship ? 2 (new)
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (ABV) S&D 1 (new)
Reformist Bloc EPP 1 (-1)

The protest movement Bulgaria without Censorship has allied with the nationalist VMRO party, so it looks likely that the alliance could join one of the right-wing eurosceptic groups. They could be an alternative for EFD or EAF to make them hit the quota of parties from seven countries.
ABV is the new list launched by the former leader of the BSP MEPs Ivailo Kalfin and the former BSP president Georgi Parvanov as a protest against the BSP's decision to form a government based on Ataka's votes.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I was watching an interview Nigel Farage gave to some italian media where they asked him if he would ally with Grillo.  He didn't say yes, but he praised Grillo and said he would be welcome in London.  With Lega Nord joining Le Pen's group, I suppose Farage would have to find new allies.  I'm not sure if Grillo would be interested in working with him, but Farage said that he would be fine working with people who have different approaches to politics, because what is right for one country isn't necessarily right for others.

Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

[Franknburger]

Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

Under fire? Jewish House left his speech when he talked about a young Palestinian he had met that complained about the average Palestinian only having access to 17 l of drinking water per day, compared to 70 l per average Israeli. Seems to me they intended from he beginning to set up some kind of scandal (after all, Schulz is German), and this was the best occasion they could find. In fact, after having looked at some excerpts from Schulz' speech, it was far more moderate than resolutions on Israel passed by the EP.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

Under fire? Jewish House left his speech when he talked about a young Palestinian he had met that complained about the average Palestinian only having access to 17 l of drinking water per day, compared to 70 l per average Israeli. Seems to me they intended from he beginning to set up some kind of scandal (after all, Schulz is German), and this was the best occasion they could find. In fact, after having looked at some excerpts from Schulz' speech, it was far more moderate than resolutions on Israel passed by the EP.

I don't think you know what under fire means.  Either that or you are too sensitive.

Anyway, that's how it was reported in the international media :shrugs:

[Velasco]

The EP elections in Spain will probably coincide with an early regional election in Navarre. The minority government led by Yolanda Barcina, of the conservative regionalist Navarrese People's Union (UPN), will likely fall after a censure motion sponsored by PSN (PSOE's regional branch), with the support of IU and the Basque nationalists. The crisis has been triggered by the corruption allegations made by a former director of the regional Treasury against the minister of Economy and Barcina's deputy PM. If socialists go ahead with the motion, PSN leader would be elected new regional premier with the purpose of calling elections immediately. UPN governs in minority since June 2012, when socialists were expelled from a coalition government with the regionalists.

PSOE will place Elena Valenciano on the top of the list for the EP elections, with former minister Ramón Jáuregi in the second place. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

European election poll for Germany (INSA, 02/14)

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 8%
FDP 3%

[Diouf]

The EPP have opened up the period of nominations to become their candidate as commission president. The candidate will be chosen at the party conference in Dublin on 6-7 March.

Today former Latvian prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis declared his candidacy. Former prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, and the European commissioner for the internal market, Michel Barnier, have also declared their candidacy.

http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2014/february/dombrovskis-seeks-epp-nomination-for-commission-presidency/79704.aspx

[Tender Branson]

2 polls out today:

Karmasin for Profil magazine (sample: 500)

23% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
14% Greens
12% NEOS
  2% HPM
  1% BZÖ
  1% REKOS
  3% Others

Link

Gallup for Ö24 newspaper (sample: 400)

23% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
14% Greens
13% NEOS
  2% HPM
  1% REKOS
  3% Others

Link

[y]

I have read that the PRC-delegate at the last party of the european left plenary talked about a united left list for the ep-elections in italy. am i right if i suppose this would include PdCI, PRC, SEL plus X, as someone mentioned SEL would endorse Tsipras as comission president also ?

[Diouf]

ALDE have apparently also tried to make a united Italian liberal list for the EP 2014 elections, but there haven't been much about this lately. In November, Verhofstadt talked about a coalition of : “All those who have a little pro-European inspiration” or in other words “liberals, radicals, Republicans, parts of the Democratic Party, the Democratic Centre, Future Italy, Stop the Decline, parts of Civic Choice.” The goal is to “build something completely new.”

http://www.eunews.it/en/2013/11/14/european-elections-verhofstadt-tries-to-unite-italian-liberals/10565

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS have now presented their frontrunners for the EP elections:

1. Angelika Mlinar
2. Stefan Windberger
3. Anton Fink



The candidates were decided in a 3-stage process, with the first process being an online-primary in which every person who was willing to pay 10€ was able to vote. The online primary had the most weighting (something like 90%). The 2nd step was a vote by the party members. The 3rd step was a vote by the party leadership.

http://neos.eu/vorwahl-eu/ergebnisse

[EPG]

Ireland's Fine Gael has had some selection conferences.

In South, which includes Munster and south Leinster, they will run Seán Kelly MEP and Senator Deirdre Clune, each from Munster. They also wanted the former Irish Farmers' Association head John Bryan, who would appeal to south Leinster, but he refused to run on a three-person ticket since they will realistically win only one or two seats. Fine Gael are now seeking a south Leinster candidate to be added to the ticket by national HQ.

Midlands-North West is a misleading name because it is split 50-50 between north Leinster, including Dublin commuters, and Connacht-Ulster. It won't be much like the old North West constituency. They selected Mairead McGuinness MEP (currently East) and Jim Higgins MEP (currently North West) and they probably won't add another candidate as their geographic spread is pretty good. McGuinness is the only current candidate from Leinster, apart from the Green Party's man; she is also extremely popular among farmers in general. Higgins will have a bigger problem, as the three North West MEPs are now effectively fighting for two seats in their heartland, if we accept that Sinn Féin will definitely take a seat in a constituency that combines their strongest areas.