jaichind
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,684
Political Matrix E: 9.03, S: -5.39
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« Reply #700 on: December 21, 2017, 12:47:54 PM » |
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« edited: December 21, 2017, 09:10:54 PM by jaichind »
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I decided to compare real results in terms of vote share and wins with hypothetical results had every PR voter voted in the districts according to my model
Real PR implied Win Vote share Win Vote share LDP 215 47.82% 228 46.85% LDP(Retroactive) 3 0.39% 3 0.33% LDP rebel 1 0.81% 1 0.73% KP 8 1.50% 8 1.80% HRP 0 0.29% 0 0.29% JRP 3 3.18% 2 3.01% HP 18 20.64% 19 24.26% Ind(HP) 8 1.98% 2 1.59% Ind(LP) 2 0.41% 2 0.40% Ind(OPPN) 11 3.18% 12 3.13% Ind(CDP) 1 0.63% 0 0.70% CDP 17 8.53% 10 8.15% SDP 1 1.15% 1 1.04% JCP 1 9.02% 1 7.31% Ind(Left) 0 0.15% 0 0.10% Ind(Minor Right) 0 0.19% 0 0.19% Ind(MinorLeft) 0 0.12% 0 0.12% Others 0 0.02% --------------------
I assume HRP, Ind(Minor Right), Ind(Minor Left) get the exact same votes as in real life and I assumes Others does not run in my PR implied world.
What this shows that the opposition actually over-performed their PR vote share results. So if all parties ran generic candidates the LDP would have done even better. In this case there are key districts where the opposition candidates outperform what the PR vote would imply (mostly CDP and Ind(HP)).
So when I say that the part of the cause of opposition was due to candidate quality I have to qualify that the average competitive opposition candidate seems to be equal in quality to the LDP candidate in my some cases superior but not achieving parity candidate quality with LDP in a bunch of district cost the opposition (mostly HP) a bunch of seats.
Overall, I found 18 seats (11 HP, 1 CDP, 2 JRP, 4 IND(OPPN)) that LDP won that the opposition could have won if their candidate quality were equal to LDP. There are 31 (10 HP, 8 CDP, 3 JRP, 3 IND(OPPN), 6 IND(HP), 1 IND(CDP)) seats that the opposition won that they would have lost to LDP had the opposition candidate quality been the same as LDP (and perhaps lack of anti-LDP tactical voting).
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