NY-20 Special Election (user search)
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179822 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: January 23, 2009, 03:15:15 PM »
The internal dynamics of this CD, who will likely be the nominees of the parties (I consider Liddle or Tedesco to be the most likely for the GOP, of those mentioned) and the way special elections tend to go in marginals would make me conclude that the GOP nominee is the favorite unless there is some ugly primary battle that extends beyond the primary.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2009, 06:47:04 PM »
The big players who appear to be in the running would have little trouble getting the Conservative Party nod simply because they're not particularly liberal (on social issues for sure - i.e. pro-life, pro-gun).  In my mind, the concern would be more about Independence party hijinks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2009, 04:13:21 PM »
The only disadvantage Tedisco has is that he doesn't live in the CD for now (the Saratoga county part of his Assembly district is in CD-20, he resides and is from the Schenectady part of the AD).  Other than that, I've found him to be very articulate in the past in his news conferences.  We'll see.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2009, 04:16:37 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on January 27, 2009, 04:15:09 PM
Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

Oh, I agree.  I just wanted to point out the disadvantage in what to me looks like a good pick for the GOP (if not entirely expected).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2009, 04:13:55 PM »
Until I see the quality of the businessman's campaign (dudes with money are usually bad politicians/campaigners, but you have to make sure first - there are certainly exceptions), I would temporarily call the race as Toss-up/Lean R or Lean R or whatever.

Tedisco isn't really your normal assemblyman - as House Minority Leader, he does get a good deal of press coverage and therefore certainly has a higher name recognition than most state legislative politicians.  I also didn't know 59 was elderly, Lewis.  I'll have to remind my mother of that.  Tongue

I also tend to believe that we are not in a good time to be nominating "wealthy venture capitalists", or whatever Mr. Murphy is, which also influences my early call slightly.

We'll see.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2009, 04:30:48 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on February 02, 2009, 04:17:40 PM
I also think the national GOP party is hungry, really hungry, and will have more than enough matching funds and support. 

and I don't know if Kirsten will jump through the hoops for Murphy



You know, Tedesco might not be a bad fundraiser himself (who knows?), and as I pointed out above, his name recognition is already higher than pretty much anyone else who could have run here.  So, you don't have to do as much as you might normally.

Like I said, we'll see.  I'm willing to be patient.

Though I agree - the national GOP will probably get heavily involved if needed.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2009, 10:13:55 AM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand

Not mentioned in the article is the fact that her father was one of Al D'Amato's key staff members (in addition to being a lobbyist).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2009, 10:57:18 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on February 12, 2009, 07:37:13 PM
I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

Running an ad mentioning guns, illegals or marriage (or anything similar) might just do her in with the 2010 primary, considering her *present* views on such issues (which have moved considerably).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2009, 02:05:19 AM »
Tedisco has been a surprisingly mediocre candidate so far.  May downgrade soon.

I would like to see a poll or an attempt at a poll, however.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2009, 02:51:30 AM »
E-head - if you think the budget cuts now are bad - just wait...  The states are being saved this year by the stimulus (and btw, in certain places (NY quite possibly), I think the problems will probably come back in about 6 months or so), after this year, well...

It's going to be very, very ugly.

Anyway, the poll pretty much confirms what I think about this race - Lean R.  Even if it is a crappy poll...  Btw, look at the internals, which are a tad odd, and would spell more trouble for Murphy, if true.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2009, 03:47:11 PM »
Independence party nod means more than you might think.

Still no change from my prior call, however.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2009, 05:48:38 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 11, 2009, 04:52:39 PM
Everyone and their mom is now bringing up a poll that has Tedisco at 44 and Murphy at 37. Except it was done around February 25. I'd like more recent polls if there are gonna be any. Sad

You mean everyone and their mom *who reads Daily Kos and MyDD*...

Anyway, the poll was commissioned by the DCCC and done by Benenson Strategy Group.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19881.html
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2009, 07:45:28 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 31, 2009, 07:32:23 PM
"Bronx GOP" sounds like an oxymoron.

Well, they do manage to get candidates to run every time out who can usually successfully pull 5%-10% of the vote.  Whatever that means...  Smiley

I thought NY polls close at 9:00 PM.  Am I wrong on this?  Anyway, I'll be in and out, probably this evening.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2009, 07:53:13 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 31, 2009, 07:47:15 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 07:45:28 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 31, 2009, 07:32:23 PM
"Bronx GOP" sounds like an oxymoron.

Well, they do manage to get candidates to run every time out who can usually successfully pull 5%-10% of the vote.  Whatever that means...  Smiley

I thought NY polls close at 9:00 PM.  Am I wrong on this?  Anyway, I'll be in and out, probably this evening.

Yes, polls close at 9.

The Bronx had a Republican state senator until he went to prison a few years back.

Not uncommon for state senators in the NYC area really...  Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2009, 07:54:55 PM »
AP results link.  Maybe it's faster, maybe no.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2009, 08:11:21 PM »
Interesting...  But useless for now.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2009, 08:16:54 PM »
They're all good.  Just be patient.  It's too early to say anything, anyways.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2009, 08:22:00 PM »
Still waiting before making some observations.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2009, 08:23:55 PM »
Once you have full county results, cinyc, that would be mighty helpful.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2009, 08:28:41 PM »
Looks like its going to be fairly close.  Still need more results to really get a good guess.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2009, 08:34:33 PM »
Still way too close to even attempt to call, folks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2009, 08:37:25 PM »
If I had to guess right now (with 1/2 through) - Tedisco by 1,000 or so.  But this is only a guess.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2009, 08:41:04 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on March 31, 2009, 08:39:11 PM
Tedisco's margin in Saratoga has been gradually shrinking (59% lead to now only 56%)

Probably because the votes that are coming in are splitting evenly.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2009, 08:43:27 PM »
Still way too close to call, but I'm agreeing with Dan and like my 1,000 vote margin call still.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2009, 08:54:10 PM »
I'm not all-seeing, I can just do math...  Tongue

Besides, I'm not right yet - I'm starting to prefer a call in-between 500 and 1,000 votes now.
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