Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Lunar]

I gave it 9:1 odds of showing a lead, Sam only said it'd be at least tied.

Please at least quote me correctly next time.  Thanks. 

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

Another thing: Friday night/Halloween polling is bound to be horrible.  Do not trust it one bit.

Zogby polls (*supposedly*) during the daytime, so he's actually exempt from this edict.

Haha, I was just joshin'!

I wonder if Zogby is secretly using his internet numbers for his actual poll...  it'd be cheaper

He's certainly found a great ally with Drudge

[Eraserhead]

LOL by Monday night Obama will be up 10.  I wonder if he just makes this stuff up to get media coverage.  Lets see if we see a monster day for McCain in the other trackers tomorrow.

You wonder?

[Sam Spade]

Tracker (finally) updated.

[Lief 🗽]

DRUDGE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PATHETIC SELF-PARODY

[Tender Branson]

R2000/DailyKos does not show the narrowing that Zogby saw:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Friday sample only:

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 43 (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Diageo/Hotline - Saturday, November 1:

Obama 51 (+3)
McCain 44 (+3)

[J. J.]

Diageo/Hotline - Saturday, November 1:

Obama 51 (+3)
McCain 44 (+3)

Diageo/Hotline might join the ranks of "It's Zogby," after this election.  They are either brilliant or idiots, but I don't know which.

[ChrisFromNJ]

R2000/DailyKos does not show the narrowing that Zogby saw:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Friday sample only:

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 43 (-1)

Glad to see that this tracking poll is starting to revert back to where it was a week ago. I was starting to get worried. Because, in reality, with the weightings in this tracking poll, if you are only up 5 in this poll, you are likely only up 1 or 2 nationally.

[Wall St. Wiz]

None of the trackers supporting Zogby, they are moving in the opposite direction.  sh**t. Lets see what Gallup says, though I'm not optimistic.

One question for the experts here.  Are state polls typically weighted by party?  It seems to me they show a closer race then the national polls.  I wonder if that is because the national polls are weighting Democrats 8-10% more then Republicans, when in reality the gap may end up being much smaller, perhaps 3-4%.

[Moooooo]

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 10 in Likely Voters



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

A bit excited huh...? This is the non-Gallup thread

[Eraserhead]

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 10 in Likely Voters



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Hell yeah! Time to blow these Republicans out of the water!

[ChrisFromNJ]

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 10 in Likely Voters



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

A bit excited huh...? This is the non-Gallup thread

You're right.. I just deleted it.

[J. J.]

TIPP 11/1/08


   
McCain  43.4% (-0.4)
   
Obama  47.9% (-0.3)
   
Undec.   8.7%
   
+4.5 Obama (+0.1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Where is Sludge's update?

[Moooooo]

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Zogby is a trip...

[Reds4]

Could have seen this coming from a mile away... so basically what he's doing is getting foxnews and Hannity and all of them to talk about his poll on one night and then try to say no one should have talked about it... right...  what a game

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Zogby is a trip...

[Tender Branson]

I though Zogby is going to release another 2 rounds of battleground polls ?

When ? Tomorrow and Tuesday morning ?

[Eraserhead]

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Zogby is a trip...

What a cocksucker.

[pepper11]

Kos

Sunday Nov 1

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 44 (nc)

Best one day sample for McCain in 6 weeks: 50-46.

Kos (R)?

[Sam Spade]

Folks, remember what I said Friday evening.  Do not trust Halloween night polling.  Even if it is correct or shows a pro-McCain result (which it is unlikely to considering who is out).  I've been reading up a bit on Zogby's polling practices, and my sample today is partially Halloween night polling, so there.

[Tender Branson]

Diageo/Hotline - Sunday, Nov. 2:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Diageo/Hotline - Sunday, Nov. 2:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

Diageo started pushing their leaners yesterday.  I don't like it.  Or at least tell us who they are.

[Sam Spade]

Two trackers for the price of one...

Daily Tracker Table - November 1, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.1%	44.1%	O+5.0%	M+2.0%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.25%	46.47%	O+4.78%	O+0.81%	Good sample for Obama (Halloween).
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	51%	44%	O+7%	NC	Started pushing the leaners without telling us.
R2000/DKos	51%	44%	O+7%	O+1%	Movement towards Obama.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	42%	O+10%	O+1%	More movement towards Obama (Halloween).
Traditional	52%	42%	O+10%	O+2%
IBD/TIPP	47.9%	43.4%	O+4.5%	O+0.1%	Not much going on here.
ABC/WP	53%	44%	O+9%	NC	Ditto.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.53%	44.12%	O+6.41%	O+0.17%	Slight movement towards Obama (ignoring Zogby).

Daily Tracker Table - November 2, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.5%	43.8%	O+5.7%	O+0.7%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.42%	46.50%	O+4.92%	O+0.14%	Obviously, very similar to the sample that dropped off
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	45%	O+5%	M+2%	Slight movement towards McCain.
R2000/DKos	51%	44%	O+7%	NC	As noted, the one-day sample was one of the better ones on this poll in a while for McCain.
Gallup
Expanded	52%	43%	O+9%	M+1%	Around and around we go.
Traditional	51%	43%	O+8	M+2%
IBD/TIPP	46.7%	44.6%	O+2.1%	M+2.4%	Need to check what dropped off, but a good day for McCain probably bumped on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	O+2%	Good sample for Obama bumped on.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.39%	44.36%	O+6.03%	M+0.38%	Slight movement towards McCain.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - November 2, 2004
Obama 46.7 (-1.2)
McCain 44.4 (+1.0)
Undecided 8.9% (+0.2%)

[pepper11]

CLOSING times.