The top 5 candidates in the Democratic and Republican primaries?

[All Along The Watchtower]

At this point, who do you think will be the top 5 candidates in each of the two major parties' primaries in 2016?

In no particular order, I'm thinking:

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Martin O'Malley
Amy Klobuchar

Republicans:

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Susana Martinez
Rick Santorum
John Thune

Feel free to speculate.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd throw Biden in there for the Dems.

[Maxwell]

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer


Republicans:

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Susana Martinez
Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal
Rand Paul

[Comrade Funk]

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Kirsten Gillibrand
Brian Schweitzer
Martin O'Malley

Republicans:

Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum

[Blue3]

* There's no way Feingold is running (too old, lost election, shows no interest).
* And O'Malley unfortunately reminds me of Pawlenty, I don't think he'll ever break through.
* 2016 is too early for Julian Castro or Corey Booker.

* Jeb Bush is also too old, out of office for too long, has too much baggage.
* Rubio will have to choose between his Senate seat (which will be competitive) and the presidential race, and he'd probably choose the Senate, and just run for President in '20 when he doesn't have to worry about his seat.
* Thune is like Pawlenty and O'Malley, except he probably won't even run, he'll want to become a leader in the Senate.
* Ryan won't run, plus he's damaged. He might not even be able to win a statewide race for Governor/Senator.
* Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman are so done, even in the slight chance that they do run again.

* We have to remember that many Democrats, like Gillibrand and Schweitzer, have flat-out said they wouldn't run if Hillary runs. There will probably only be a Kucinich-like figure running against Hillary, if she runs. There won't even be a "top five."




Democrats:
1. Hillary
2. No one
3. No one
4. No one
5. No one

OR

Democrats:
1. Schweitzer
2. Cuomo
3. Klobuchar
4. Patrick
5. Gillibrand


Republicans:
1. Martinez
2. Christie
3. Jindal
4. Haley
5. Santorum

[Mr. Morden]

What do you mean by top 5 candidates?

Do you mean, who are the 5 most likely people to get the nomination?  Or do you mean, of the people who will run, who will be the top 5 people by popular vote or delegates or something, regardless of their chances of winning the nom.?  Or do you mean something else?

Assuming you mean 5 most likely to win the nomination, I guess I'd say:

Dems:
Clinton
Cuomo
O'Malley
Schweitzer
Biden
honorable mention: Klobuchar, Warren

GOP:
Christie
Rubio
Ryan
Jindal
Bush

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

Democrats:
Hilary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro

Republicans:
Chris Christie
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
Marco Rubio
Newt Gingrich

[Mr. Morden]

* Rubio will have to choose between his Senate seat (which will be competitive) and the presidential race, and he'd probably choose the Senate, and just run for President in '20 when he doesn't have to worry about his seat.

The filing deadline for his senate seat isn't until June 2016, so he could run in the primaries and then wait until the nomination is decided before having to decide on a reelection bid.  If he wins the GOP presidential nomination, he leaves the Senate.  If he loses the nomination, he jumps from the presidential race into his reelection bid.

[Blue3]

* Rubio will have to choose between his Senate seat (which will be competitive) and the presidential race, and he'd probably choose the Senate, and just run for President in '20 when he doesn't have to worry about his seat.

The filing deadline for his senate seat isn't until June 2016, so he could run in the primaries and then wait until the nomination is decided before having to decide on a reelection bid.  If he wins the GOP presidential nomination, he leaves the Senate.  If he loses the nomination, he jumps from the presidential race into his reelection bid.

I don't see why Rubio would do that. If he loses the nomination, then he's in a very weak position for his Senate re-election. He would look vulnerable, even more vulnerable after the national spotlight was on him for months. And the people of Florida would be upset with him trying to leave them for the national stage, and feel used that they were just a platform for his higher aspirations.

If he wins the nomination, then he definitely wouldn't leave the Senate too, because (1) he could still lose the GE, and (2) the party would have to find someone to run very quickly.

[Mr. Morden]

To be clear, I'm not saying that there's no chance that the Senate race deters Rubio from running for prez in 2016.  I think the chances of him running for president in '16 are maybe ~55% or so.  I just think he's, more likely than not, primarily interested in being president, and his Senate seat is just a stepping stone.  (Unlike, say, Thune, who's now clearly shown that he's more interested in the Senate.)

If Rubio wins the nomination and has to give up his Senate seat, then yes, he could always end up losing the general election, and he'd be out of a job.  But again, if his primary goal is to become president, and he doesn't care that much about his Senate seat in and of itself, then that's clearly a risk worth taking.  And I don't know if it would necessarily be tough for the party to put someone up at the last minute before the filing deadline.  I don't know that they'd have to.  The real decision would probably come in March or so, at the time of Super Tuesday.  By then, it's usually pretty clear who's going to win the nomination.

You also write that, if he loses the presidential nomination and jumps into the Senate race, his presidential campaign would have hurt him.  I don't know.  It's not clear that it would hurt him that much.  Depends on what his popularity is in Florida at that time, and who the Dems are likely to run against him.  He might end up being in a strong enough position that he can take a bit of a hit like that.

[TomC]

Clinton
Biden
Coumo
O'Malley
Warner

Bush
Christie
Ryan
Martinez
Santorum

[Mister Mets]

Democratic side...
Clinton- Overwhelming favorite if she wants the nomination.
Biden- Weak frontrunner if Clinton doesn't run.
Cuomo- The frontrunner if Clinton and Biden don't run.
Villariagosa- Appeals to voters who want a Hispanic President, Unions and urban organizations.
Schweitzer- Seems likelier to run than Warner.

Republican side...
Rubio- Seems to be positioning himself for a run. Will likely have Jeb Bush's network. Conservatives love him already.
Paul Ryan- National figure after Veep campaign.
Rand Paul- Probably has a floor of ten percent because of his dad's fans. Has a better shot at actually getting votes.
Christie- Most prominent Republican Governor. Acceptable to conservatives with an appeal to McCain voters. Could lose to Booker in '13. Might be suited challenging incumbents than in an open presidential election.
Jeb Bush- Rubio's likelier to run, but Jeb would be a top-tier candidate in the other scenario.


Jindal and Santorum seem likely to run, but neither has a great shot at the nomination. Jindal is the third most impressive socially conservative Catholic policy wonk born in the early 1970s. Santorum's fans are likely to go elsewhere now that there will be more plausible social conservative options.

[California8429]

Democrats-
Clinton
O'Malley
Biden
Cuomo
Schweitzer

Republicans-
Rubio
Christie
Martinez
Santorum
McDonnell

...everyone R is a catholic...

[milhouse24]

Okay, here is my prediction about the Top 5 candidates that will be running:

Dems:
Clinton or Cuomo (Cuomo won't run if Clinton runs/will split the NY donors)
O'Malley
Schweitzer
Biden
Warner

Others who will run:
Klobuchar
Bayh

GOP:
Jeb or Rubio (Rubio won't run if Jeb runs/similar donor circles)
Christie
Paul Ryan
Jindal
Santorum

Others who will run:
Martinez
Brownback
Thune (running for VP or Senate re-election)

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Cuomo
Schweitzer
O'Malley
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar

Christie
Martinez
Ryan
Santorum
Jindal

[bedstuy]

Democrats:
Clinton
Biden
Schweitzer
Warren
O'Malley

Republicans:
Christie
Jindal
Ryan
Rubio
Santorum

I don't see why people are mentioning Klobuchar.  She's very bright, but she's a policy wonk.  I can't imagine that she would run. 

[Mr. Morden]

I don't see why people are mentioning Klobuchar.  She's very bright, but she's a policy wonk.  I can't imagine that she would run.  

Because she met with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at the DNC (what is the point of that if you're not at least considering a run for national office?):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

and said to the Iowa delegation "I can see Iowa from my porch".  

[Granted, in that last article she's quoted as saying that she “loves being in the Senate” and is not planning a presidential run.  But that's classic non-denial denial.  Not planning a presidential run right now in 2012 doesn't mean that you're not going to start planning one in the future.]

Weigel on Klobuchar at the convention:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

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[bedstuy]

I don't see why people are mentioning Klobuchar.  She's very bright, but she's a policy wonk.  I can't imagine that she would run.  

Because she met with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at the DNC (what is the point of that if you're not at least considering a run for national office?):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

and said to the Iowa delegation "I can see Iowa from my porch".  

[Granted, in that last article she's quoted as saying that she “loves being in the Senate” and is not planning a presidential run.  But that's classic non-denial denial.  Not planning a presidential run right now in 2012 doesn't mean that you're not going to start planning one in the future.]

Weigel on Klobuchar at the convention:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I guess there needs to be a female candidate if Hillary doesn't run.  But, ultimately the question is, who is excited about Amy Klobuchar?  She does good work in the Senate, but I've never seen a whole lot of vision or charisma that would translate to a Presidential campaign.

[nolesfan2011]

Personal preference aside..

Dems:
Clinton
Patrick/Booker (one or the other trying to carry Obama fresh/modern "change" mantle)
Cuomo
Howard Dean (better chance of him being the liberal candidate instead of Feingold)
Biden (would throw hat in and probably bomb out)

also rans would be maybe a southern governor like Beebe, Klobuchar or Gillibrand, possibly a Hispanic candidate like Luis Gutierrez or Villagarosa, O'Malley would bomb out like Tim Pawlenty..

GOP:
Nikki Haley (suprising, but she has a good record, common sense, charisma, female and minority, southern base and tea party likes her)
Chris Christie (if he loses NJ gov race to Booker, he would run, if he wins, I think he doesn't run)
Rand Paul (Paulites will transfer their support to him)
Paul Ryan (next in line kind of thing, still young and somewhat popular)
Scott Walker (firebrand, popular with tea party, well connected and won twice in a blue state)

also rans: Jeb Bush, cause of Bush fatigue, maybe Jon Huntsman runs again, Martinez I dunno, possibly some tea party firebrand type.. like Allen West or something. Rick Perry could run again too, but given how bad he did in 12, don't give him much chance.   Santorum could run again, but he probably will get pushed out and won't have the same evangelical/conservative support.  I could see Huckabee running again too as a "happy warrior" evangelical type, but might be a bit too much on social issues.

As for Rubio, time will tell, he might still be a bit too young, and may or may not have some skeletons in closet issues.

At this point, who do you think will be the top 5 candidates in each of the two major parties' primaries in 2016?

In no particular order, I'm thinking:

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Martin O'Malley
Amy Klobuchar

Republicans:

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Susana Martinez
Rick Santorum
John Thune

Feel free to speculate.

[Sol]

GOP:
Nikki Haley (suprising, but she has a good record, common sense, charisma, female and minority, southern base and tea party likes her)

Haley's pretty corrupt, and might lose re-election in 2014 if Shaheen runs again.

[Psychic Octopus]

Five most likely nominees as of now. Obviously, there's some difference. If Rubio runs, Jeb won't, and vice-versa. Biden won't run if Clinton does, and the others would probably be pushed out as well. Hillary clears the field.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Andrew Cuomo
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer

Republicans:

Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum