MO-PPP: Obama leads Palin by 3; trails Huck by 7, Romney by 6, Gingrich by 1

[California8429]

More evidence MO is no longer a battleground state.

It really looks like MO is asserting itself as part of the traditional South, while NC and especially VA are rapidly diverging from it.

which seems odd, especially considering VA elected McDonnell and had pick-ups for Congress.

I just think the voters think the republican field is weak (though I don't think there is anybody they would actually like) Voters tend to be no voters than actively looking for a good candidate.

[California8429]

More evidence MO is no longer a battleground state.

It really looks like MO is asserting itself as part of the traditional South, while NC and especially VA are rapidly diverging from it.

which seems odd, especially considering VA elected McDonnell and had pick-ups for Congress.

I just think the voters think the republican field is weak (though I don't think there is anybody they would actually like) Voters tend to be no voters than actively looking for a good candidate.

Regarding VA, I don't think there has actually been that much of a  shift back from 2008.  When VA elected Warner in 2001, would you say that was an indication it was getting ready to vote against Bush in 2004?  I don't think so.  VA hasn't elected a governor from the same party as the president since the 1970's.  Three congressional districts did flip R, but they were all at least R+5 PVI and the Democrats didn't have any business holding them long term unless there was a very different map.  Notably, the D+2 district didn't flip, while in other parts of the country many of these districts did.  VA certainly isn't moving any further left, but it's hardly turning hard right either. 

That is my point, yes it is a toss-up, but I don't think we'll see it more blue than in 2008.