MO-PPP: Obama leads Palin by 3; trails Huck by 7, Romney by 6, Gingrich by 1

[Whacker77]

more evidence Palin probably will flame out a lot quicker than people think

I completely disagree.  Fact and reason have not slowed the Palin juggernaut one bit.  The more proof is shown she can't win, the more supportive her supporters become.  Recently, they have begun to make the comparison to Reagan.  At NRO, commenters to posts have said there is nothing different between Obama quitting the Senate to become president and Palin quitting the governorship to become a media star and then run for president.

She is the prohibative frontrunner.  Despite all of the gaffes, she is still a leader in national polls and she is the leader in Iowa and South Carolina.  Since she is going to skip New Hampshire, she needs to win the two states and she will be the nominee.  Trust me, she knows this and that's why she is running.  Because the core conservative base is so strongly for her, it's not much of a challenge for her.

Only a collapse by the current challengers and the arrival of a white knight can stop Palin.  My party is determined to win by losing.

[Whacker77]

1)   I think you’re underestimating the sophistication of the nomination process.  It usually forces voters to set aside their self pride and try on different suits to see which one best fits.
2)   There is no reason for an unbiased person to pick Palin over Pence once Pence becomes more well known.

You just used a word that is contradictory to everything about Palin: sophistacation.  Nothing about her popularity or the strong support she recieves from the core base, Rush, Mark Levin, Hannity, or Laura Ingraham is sophisticated.  It is all about not being elite or a cut above the masses.  It is vulgar populism.  If sophistication ruled the day, Palin would be nowhere after quitting her job.

As for Pence, I like him as well, but how does he survive what will likely be a fourth or fifth place finish in Iowa.  Maybe he catches fire, but at the expense of whom?  Palin?  No.  Gingrich?  A little.  Huckabee?  No.  Romney?  Possibly.  I don't see how he raises money with Palin sucking up all of the oxygen.

Among the current crop, I do hope you are right.

[Whacker77]

She is the prohibitive frontrunner.  Despite all of the gaffes, she is still a leader in national polls and she is the leader in Iowa and South Carolina. 

She hasn't led a single poll in Iowa.

I thought I had seen some that said she was leading.  Oh well.  Regardless, the caucuses are about passion.  Palinistas have passion for Sarah.  There is no passion for any other candidate.  I stick by my belief that none of the current crop will be able to approach her in the polling by late summer 2011.  That is going to set off one of the most contentious behind the scenes fights to stop her either through subterfuge or a white knight as I'm calling it.

As for sophistication, if it hasn't stopped Palin by now, why believe it will?  Her support has only grown over the last year.  I find it troubling to say the least, but the supporters of her are as loyal and vocal as the Ronbots are.  The Palinistas are just higher in number.  If Huck doesn't run, her national support will shoot to the mid 30's with the Lilliputians left to bite at her ankles.  Is it really believable that negative attacks from Romney and Newt will slow her down?  Heck, Romney ran negative ad after negative ad in 2008 and they didn't work.

Until I see credible, big name Republican politicians hounding her, she has the strongest of strong hands.