2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

[Mr.Phips]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

[Mr.Phips]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

Like that actually was going to happen.

[SnowLabrador]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

Like that actually was going to happen.

To be fair, it probably would have. But I think Bernie would have beaten Trump by a larger margin. He'd certainly be fighting a lot harder for his agenda right now, as opposed to Biden, who's just rolling over and letting Republicans walk all over him.

[ElectionsGuy]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073 LV

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

Right, because Bernie would be so much more popular right now, therefore able to avoid the political gravity of midterm elections with record high inflation.

Eh, I don't think Bernie would stop a red wave in the midterms but I think he would do better than Biden. He's better at hammering in on certain favorable topics and he'll definitely avoid the base not showing up. He's certainly more rhetorically gifted than Biden.

I actually argued for months in the primaries that Bernie would've been as strong or stronger in the general election than Biden. However, the current conditions were not avoidable with a different Democrat. This is broadly to do with the economy as it stands and the Democratic Party as it stands. And I don't buy the idea that "the base" won't show up in the midterms when 81 million people voted for this guy just over a year ago and he claims he's going to be "heavily involved" with the elections. Every single one of these elections is going to be made into some existential threat for democracy so I think it's independent losses, not base turnout, that will be the main problem for them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

Like that actually was going to happen.

Translation: “It couldn’t happen here”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know QU is trying so hard to make it a 2020 cycle they have Biden at 35/55 and they underpolled Blk and Latino voters 37 percent among Latinos how do you explain CA, IL, NM, NV, AZ and CO

Latino and BLK votes make up 30 percent of the D vote and Blks are not 54 it's 90)9

Why would Blk and Latino voters vote R 2)3 RDS of the poverty lie are Blk and Latino men due to prison and Homelessness

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1494330915975151630

Nice!

[Ferguson97]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073 LV

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

Right, because Bernie would be so much more popular right now, therefore able to avoid the political gravity of midterm elections with record high inflation.

Eh, I don't think Bernie would stop a red wave in the midterms but I think he would do better than Biden. He's better at hammering in on certain favorable topics and he'll definitely avoid the base not showing up. He's certainly more rhetorically gifted than Biden.

The base prefers Biden over Bernie. That's why he won the primary.

[Aurelius]

Latest Rasmussen GCB poll (yes, I know):

GOP 50%
Dem 37%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_feb18

We can throw this in the junk pile with that Economist D+5 poll, but the fact that the GOP-favoring junk polls are showing bigger margins than the Dem-favoring junk polls does say something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1494330915975151630

Nice!

QU poll underpolled Latinos and Blks Rs aren't winning by 13' pts where are the ABC or Marist polls only Rassy and Traggy are giving us GCB

How can we believe GCB polls and Biden low Approvals and there aren't any NC, OH, WI or PA polls if Fetterman or Ryan or Beasley are down 20 pts which they're not then I will believe these numbers

Demings and Crist are down by 7 and DeSajtis overcame with a mnth left after he beat Putnam in primary a six pt DEFICIT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember whom is in charge of Rassy and Tralfager pills Fox News we need some Fox polls that give us the truth on the 303 map

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1495112270707404806



It's not yet set in stone, but I think, that a lot of Dems still don't grasp how big red wave might [likely?] become. Imo most people still think it will be R+2 at *worst*.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1495112270707404806


It's not yet set in stone, but I think, that a lot of Dems still don't grasp how big red wave might [likely?] become. Imo most people still think it will be R+2 at *worst*.

I love the absolute copium in his replies lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1495112270707404806



It's not yet set in stone, but I think, that a lot of Dems still don't grasp how big red wave might [likely?] become. Imo most people still think it will be R+2 at *worst*.

The actual "red wave" could be big but again, the districts being less swingy will mitigate the # of seats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A-)-rated Emerson College
February 19-20

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/february-2022-national-poll-inflation-tops-nation-s-concerns-perception-of-covid-s-public-health-threat-drops

1138 RV:
R 50(+1 compared to Nov)
D 41 (-1)

The majority (73%) of registered voters report being very motivated to vote in the 2022 midterm elections. Republican voters express higher levels of motivation to vote than Democrats: 79% say they are very motivated to vote compared to 65% of Democratic voters. Younger voters are less motivated to vote: 57% of voters between the ages 18-29 say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 84% of voters over 50 who say they are very motivated to vote.

[Matty]

50-41 is probably a bit high, but Emerson was accurate in VA

[SnowLabrador]

Bye-bye democracy, I'll miss you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bye-bye democracy, I'll miss you.

Lol do you ever stop Hobbs is tied with Lake in Gov poll Vaccinated Bear only post polls he likes IPSOS HAS US 42/34 ON GCB


It's nine mths till EDay it's not October

[ElectionsGuy]

Bye-bye democracy, I'll miss you.

Well it's clear democracy has been redefined as simply Democrats winning and getting everything they want.

The truth is, most of the left hates democracy. They have contempt for regular people and think they're too stupid to make decisions for themselves. This can be seen on this forum all the time, including a thread where most Democrats are in favor of abolishing midterms because they're too inconvenient. Most of the left after the 2020 election, was slightly relieved but very distraught at just how many people chose to vote Republican after such vitriolic and hyperbolic propaganda that shamed anybody who even thought about voting for him. They clearly think half this country is irredeemable, so why continue this song and dance about how much they love democracy? They love centralized power and they love winning. The only thing that is actually giving the Republican Party a chance in this country is democracy. If it were up to institutions and oligarchs, the current Republican Party would be vastly overwhelmed and defeated, as it "should have been" in 2020.

[Roll Roons]

Looks like Upton is running again: https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1496175307606351884

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm assuming he's running for the new 4th?

If he survives the primary safe R. If he loses around likely R give or take depending upon the "sanity" of the Republican candidate.

[Roll Roons]

I'm assuming he's running for the new 4th?

If he survives the primary safe R. If he loses around likely R give or take depending upon the "sanity" of the Republican candidate.

Yeah, he's running in the 4th. Huizenga is a pretty generic R and should be able to hold it except maybe in a big blue wave, but I think an MTG type would definitely struggle most of the time. 

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1496577073669881859

Meuser running in PA-09, not against Cartwright.