LA: Mason Dixon/WAFB9 poll: Edwards at 45% in jungle

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

What we could be seeing is infighting causing some Abraham/Rispone voters to go to JBE in the runoff. This happened in 2015 but to a much greater extent. In this poll it's +4 R before and +9/+15 D after.

This poll is better for Edwards than the JMC one, but some numbers are hard to believe.

Trump approval only +6
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181260468817743873?s=20

And a D+8 electorate while the early vote was only 43/42 D
https://twitter.com/MattCHouston/status/1181259584226373638?s=20

The racial numbers and the party registration numbers make sense, but Trump's approval doesn't. It makes me think it's skewed towards white liberals instead of the DINOs that will come out for JBE but vote for Trump in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

Atlas: LA is Safe R!!!

This poll had JBE beating Rispone + Abraham by 6. He lost to them by 4, so if we do some "unskewing" we get a 1 point Rispone win in the runoff.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kind of important to note JBE is over 50% in both runoff scenarios:

Edwards 51
Rispone 42

Edwards 53
Abraham 38

What we could be seeing is infighting causing some Abraham/Rispone voters to go to JBE in the runoff. This happened in 2015 but to a much greater extent. In this poll it's +4 R before and +9/+15 D after.

This post is actually completely wrong. It was +6 D before not +4 R.

Unskewing based on turnout that hasn’t happened yet is a bit silly. Rs were very motivated to turn out in the primary because of the impeachment inquiry combined with the fact that they had the only competitive race involved. I do think it is likely that the vast majority of undecided voters in every poll from here on out will go R though - I view a 51-42 JBE poll as more of a 52-48 poll once the undecided voters actually pick someone, tbh. Unless Abraham endorses JBE, though even then probably only 53-47. Either way, it’ll come down to turnout.

I know, I'm simply demonstrating that this poll can't be trusted to wish away Rispone's chances of winning.