Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #10: Multnomah County- Part II


Ok--- in order to breakdown a large county like Multnomah in more detail, it is necessary to move beyond just the city based breakdowns, and delve a bit deeper into the various neighborhoods of the city. What makes it a bit more difficult is trying to create an apples to apples comparison with shifts in redistricting between the '04/08 elections and the '12/16 elections...

After further review, what seems to make the most sense is to break it down by State House districts, since these remained constant between '12 and '16 (as opposed to precinct boundaries), and although there were some shifts between the '04/'08 state house districts vs the '12/'16 HDs these changes are easier to note than trying to go precinct by precinct....

So without further ado....

West Multnomah County:

2004: (74.8k Votes)--- (74-23 Kerry)....   +51 D
2008: (75.9k Votes)--- (80-18 Obama)...  +62 D
2012: (77.2k Votes)--- (77-20 Obama)...  +57 D
2016: (82.9k Votes)--- (79-13 Clinton)     +66 D

West Portland encompasses all of the precincts West of the River, and approximately 25% of the voters in the City live in the various neighborhoods from the "inner" parts (Downtown, Chinatown, Pearl District, NW District, Goose Hollow) to South Portland with the new high-rise condos across the skybridge to OHSU, to places like Hillsdale/Multnomah Village, and further South, West and Southwest....

Demographically, it is a fairly White Collar part of the city (2:1) with almost 60% of the population with a Bachelors degree or higher, an extremely high household income compared to the city average, and an average household net worth greater than $600k...

Ethnically, it has a much larger percentage of Non-Latino Whites than the citywide average      (72.2%- 2015), although there are still vestiges of the immigrant communities from the 1910s-1930s to be found, for example vibrant Observant/Orthodox Jewish communities in places like Hillsdale and Multnomah Village, Chinese-Americans throughout West Portland, and so forth...

Politically--- This used to be a part of the city/county where Moderate Republicans would typically perform extremely well.... even in the '16 Democratic Primaries Clinton only lost West Portland by 2% versus Bernie Sanders, and she actually well out-performed her numbers compared to the '08 Democratic Primary....

House Districts (For Multnomah County Precincts Only):

HD-27- Basically a small handful of upper-middle class precincts in the West Hills....

There was a small shift that added a few precincts into HD-36 between '08 and '12

2004: (2.7k Votes)--- (67-32 Kerry)   +35 D
2008: (2.8K Votes)--- (74-25 Obama) +49 D
2012: (1.3k Votes)--- (63-36 Obama)  +27 D
2016: (1.4k Votes)--- (72-20 Clinton)  +52 D

Regardless--- what is interesting is the extent of the Republican collapse between '12 and '16 when the boundaries were fixed.... and the dramatic gain of support for Clinton vs Obama numbers. There was basically a net 25% swing in one of the wealthiest parts of Portland, where Republicans could count on 33% in a good year and 25% in a bad year....

HD-31---- Basically went from one WWC precinct in '04/'08 located near a major Port district to add on a few other WWC precincts in '12/'16 also located directly across from St. Johns.

2004: (0.6k Votes)--- (51-48 Kerry)   +3 D
2008: (0.6k Votes)--- (57-40 Obama)   +17 D
2012: (3.4k Votes)--- (63-34 Obama)   +27 D
2016: (3.6k Votes)--- (64-26 Clinton)   +38 D

So even in a heavily WWC part of PDX with a lot of residents directly connected to work in the Ports, we see a collapse of Republican numbers from '12 to '16.

HD-33---- ok, now we're starting to move into a more populated part of West Portland. The post 2010 district still includes much of "downtown" Portland, although it dropped off several large precincts located North of Burnside and West of the 405 into HD-36, so it makes it bit more difficult to compare.... However it does contain several precincts (3302) North of Burnside, West of the 405, East of Broadway to the river to the North, as well as (Precinct 3301) NW-PDX North of Lovejoy to well past NW 23rd, and then throws in a few random wealthier precincts in the Hills around Forest Park.

2004: (19.7k Votes)--- (75-20 Kerry)   +55 D
2008: (20.5k Votes)--- (82-16 Obama)  +66 D
2012: (11.9k Votes)--- (79-19 Obama)  +60 D
2016: (13.5k Votes)--- (82-11 Obama)  +71 D

Even if we ignore the '04/'08 HD results (Which honestly I don't think would have changed the percentages much, if anything moved them in Clinton's favor).... this is a part of Portland that has seen a dramatic increase in construction and growth of expensive high-rise condos, not only in the Pearl District, but also in Precinct 3301, it is pretty clear that Trump somehow managed to lose 50% of Republican support from Romney '12 numbers, while Clinton actually improved on Obama '12 numbers.

HD-35--- a handful of Middle-Class precincts in SW-Portland that could be easily missed if you are cruising down I-5, or even if you are doing the slow route down Barbur Boulevard towards Tigard... there was a precinct add-on between '04/'08 that added the Southern Part of Ashcreek to HD-35 that doesn't appear to have substantively impacted the results.

2004: (2.4k Votes)--- (68-31 Kerry)       +37 D
2008: (2.4k Votes)--- (72-25 Obama)     +47 D
2012: (5.1k Votes)--- (74-23 Obama)     +51 D
2016: (5.4k Votes)--- (75-16 Clinton)     +59 D

Ok--- so trend pattern continues in West Portland, this time in a relatively Middle-Class neighborhood.... Trump numbers collapse vs Romney '12 numbers, and Clinton improves marginally vs Obama '12 numbers.

HD-36---- now we're starting to really get into the meat of West Portland, which single-handily accounts for almost 50% of the votes in MultCo West of the River....

The current district includes everything from the vibrant neighborhoods around NW 21st/23rd Street with an extremely visible and proud historic LGBT community that dates back to the '70s, to the high-rise Senior Condos in SW-PDX, which was the historic center of Jewish immigrants in the City, the student districts near Portland State University (South Park Blocks) where there were days of street battles during student unrest after Kent State and the revelation that Nixon had for several years been running a massive carpet-bombing operation in Cambodia and Laos.

Moving South, there are the new High-Rise Towers in South Portland, where Doctors can live in the new luxury Condos, that are still not yet finished, but in terms of density, are the top between Vancouver, Canada and San Francisco, and take the equivalent of a massive ski-lift 1500 feet up to be deposited to the best Hospital in Oregon (Oregon State Hospital University).   Throw in Hillsdale/Multnomah Village, with one of the largest and most visible Jewish-American populations in the City (Tip: Get to the Safeway on Barbur way early on Friday if you want Kosher carry-out)...

You also have some of the wealthiest WASP communities ever in places up in the West Hills, not to mention down in the hills overlooking the Willamette down Macadam Blvd, and then throw in some working and Middle-Class apartment areas on the edge of the Beaverton-Hillsdale Hwy....

So, a very interesting OR House District, but in theory should tilt Republican on taxation policy and Democrat on social policy, and liberal non-interventionist generally on foreign policy....

2004: (36.7k Votes)---- (76-31 Kerry)       +45 D
2008: (37.1k Votes)---- (82-16 Obama)     +66 D
2012: (37.2k Votes)---  ( 79-17 Obama)     +62 D
2016: (40.1k Votes)---  ( 81-11 Clinton)     +70 D

So... here you have not only a massive collapse in Republican levels, in a part of the County where Republicans used to be able to perform quite well, but additionally an increase in the Democratic Vote from Obama '12 numbers....

HD-38---- basically a mixture of Middle-Class and slightly upper-Middle-Class neighborhoods that added a few heavily Democratic Precincts North of Barbur/I-5 in '12, to a fairly ritzy district centered on the Westside Hills of the Sellwood Bridge and off of the Eastern end of Boone's Ferry Road...

2004: (12.6k Votes)--- (71-28 Kerry)      +43 D
2008: (12.5k Votes)--- (76-22 Obama)   +54 D
2012: (18.2k Votes)--- (75-18 Obama)    +57 D
2016: (18.9k Votes)--- (77-14 Clinton)    +63 D

So again, West of the River significant drop-off in Republican support and increase in Democratic support from '12 to '16....

Next stop East Portland.....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #10: Multnomah County- Part III

Ok--- moving over to neighborhoods on the Eastside of the river....

HD-41- Basically currently covers the neighborhoods of Sellwood-Moreland, Eastmoreland, as well as a sliver of the Southern part of Woodstock & Western part of Brentwood-Darlington. The majority of Woodstock, Brentwood-Darlington & Mt Scott- Arleta were all pulled from this HD after 2010 redistrict changes.

Generally these are neighborhoods with older single-family homes, higher number of married couples, higher than average house value levels, Whiter than the City average, and slightly older than the City average, and more of bedroom community neighborhoods, that are both relatively close to the amenities of Downtown and "happening" inner Eastside neighborhoods, but also fairly quiet neighborhoods

2004: (20.7k Voters)       (76-23 Kerry)    +53 D
2008: (20.8k Voters)       (81-17 Obama)   +64 D
2012: (14.6k Voters)       (81-15 Obama)   +66 D
2016: (15.8k Voters)       (81-10 Clinton)    +71 D

HD-42---- This district contains most of the iconic SE Portland neighborhoods, and in many ways is responsible for the Portland "hipster" stereotypes in recent years, since although these neighborhoods account for only a relative fraction of the total population of the city, they contain some of the more popular shopping districts, nightlife, and dining areas within the city, with a predominately small-business base and walkable neighborhoods.

Neighborhoods contained within the '12/16 district: Kerns, Buckman, Sunnyside, Hosford-Abernethy, Brooklyn, Richmond, Creston-Kenilworth, & much of Woodstock.

Although many of these neighborhoods might be defined as trendy or hipster areas, there is actually a fairly decent residual Blue Collar component to much of the district, although overall it has a significantly lower average age than the city at large, higher proportion of unmarried and non-family residents, higher than average White population, most of the neighborhoods have a lower than average income level, despite many of the neighborhoods having a higher than average household value.

Politically, these parts of Portland have historically been some of the most solidly Democratic neighborhoods in the City, along with neighboring NE Portland (HD-43) despite fairly different historical demographics.

The district did not change substantively after the 2010 redistricting...

2004: (37.8k Voters)--- (87-11 Kerry)      +76 D
2008: (37.7k Voters)--- (89-8 Obama)     +81 D
2012: (39.5k Voters)--- (87-8 Obama)      +79 D
2016: (43.6k Voters)--- (85-6 Clinton )       +79 D

Since it is already such an overwhelmingly Democratic district, I didn't think that there was much room for Republican numbers to collapse further.... Note 4.5% Stein, 2.1% Johnson, and 2.8% Write-Ins in '16.... Trump's best precinct here was 4210 (9.2%), which is basically the Eastern part of Creston-Kenilworth and Northern Woodstock, however it is also the area where Republican's saw the largest collapse between '04 and '16 (McCain garnered almost 20%), and is an extremely popular neighborhood for younger Middle-Class couples with kids, and as a result has gone through some gentrification over the past decade or so....

OR-HD43---- Another fairly large HD located entirely within the city of Portland, which encompasses most of the historic neighborhoods of NE Portland, including areas with extremely expensive old homes, some relatively blue-collar and working-class neighborhoods, a few high rise luxury condos down on the Eastern bank of the Willamette, and older high-rise apartments East of the Lloyd District.

Until recently, it contained the only Black Majority neighborhoods in the City (Around the King neighborhood or formerly town of Albina), where racist housing policies and banking/real estate "redlining" limited where Black folks could live, and for many decades after the end of these laws and practices technically ended, the neighborhoods around King still retained not only a large Black population, but also a special role among African-Americans living in other parts of the City and Metro area as an important part of the history and culture of the community.

In particular since 2000 many of the older working-class communities in the district have experienced some of the most significant gentrification of any part of Portland. Although there is still a significant working-class Black, Latino, and White component to many of the neighborhoods on the Northern part of the district, it is now 65.7% White, 17% Black, 8.6 % Latino, 4.9% Mixed/Other, and 3.1% Asian.

With the expansion of the MAX line down North along MLK Drive, older houses are being torn down and replaced by modern, and from my angle (on the exterior) unaesthetic mid-raise apartments, and many locals, (including the alternative poor artsy types) are essentially being priced out and replaced by the modern equivalent of yuppies. Single Whites aged 30-34 working in professional and tech jobs are now one of the single largest demographic adult groups within the district.

The Black population in the district is now increasingly older, and still contains a large component of adults 55+, and also younger (<19 yrs) because of the demographic bulge now created by the Anglos in their late '20s and early '30s.

Meanwhile with the explosion of gentrification, there is now a huge income gap between the newer residents, and the older working-class Black-Latino-White populations. 25% of households make >$100k/yr and 34% <$40k/yr.

Economically many of the residents still work in Blue Collar occupations, Health Care is significantly higher than State/City averages with several large Hospitals/Medical Centers located in the area, as well as jobs in the educational and Hospitality sectors.

The political boundaries of the district only changed marginally after 2010, with the addition of the South part of the Overlook neighborhood, and subtraction of part of the Cully neighborhood, and contains the following city neighborhoods (Lloyd District, Sullivans Gulch, Eliot, Irvington, Boise, Humboldt, Sabin, King, Vernon, Woodlawn, Concordia, Southern Part of overlook and Piedmont, as well as part of Cully.

Despite the massive in-migration and out-migration from this district, interestingly enough it hasn't changed that much politically between 2004 and 2012:

2004: (33.6k Voters)----  (87-12 Kerry)     +75 D
2008: (36.4k Voters)---   (91-7 Obama)     +84 D
2012: (39.4k Voters)---   (89-7 Obama)     +82 D
2016: (42.6k Voters)---   (87-5 Clinton)     +82 D

It does appear that there was a bump in turnout between '04 and '08 with Obama on the ticket, combined with an increase in Dem margins and drop in Rep numbers---- similar to much of the rest of Portland, combined with a slight decrease of Dem numbers in '12 towards 3rd Party candidates, and in '16 roughly an equal drop in Dem and Rep numbers, (Mostly a defection to the Left- Green & Bernie Write-Ins) but the margins remained consistent from '08 onwards.

Trump did not score >5% in a single precinct, regardless of income or ethnicity.... Romney was able to achieve >5% in most precincts, and 13% in the area around Concordia. McCain was able to garner >15% in Concordia, as well as the precinct that included the Lloyd Center/Sullivans Gulch/south Irvington (Generally older, Whiter, and wealthier than most of the district)....

HD-44----  This HD includes the area known as North Portland and stretches all the way along the Columbia River to the Portland airport way out to where I-205 crosses into SE Vancouver in Washington State.

Traditionally, these neighborhoods have been defined by the River, and a blue collar ethos heavily tied to work in the Port of Portland Cargo Docks, and related warehousing and manufacturing work associated with the Port.

WWII sparked a dramatic increase in employment and shipping related activities, as Americas Greatest Generation rolled up their sleeves, forged the steel and built the ships that help within the War in the Pacific. After the war, the dramatic expansion in Port facilities created a private sector boom along the Waterfront.

Columbia Villa was a giant suburban style housing estate, built to house 18,000 workers in the Defense Sector during WW II, and one of only two such estates intended to be converted to a Public Housing estate after the war. It was widely considered one of the model public housing projects in the United States, although the aging nature of the facilities led to a renovation program that resulted in the displacement of some residents, and more of a "mixed use" style of housing that included privately owned homes, mixed in with rental units, and subsidized units.

Although employment related to the Port is significantly lower than it was even 30 years ago, this is still a part of the city that has fundamentally retained it's blue-collar roots and identity, and remained relatively immune to the gentrification that has exploded in many other parts of the City, and is still affordable for housing costs.

Unemployment is significantly higher for all demographic groups, and significantly exceeds both the state and city average, and like much of Portland it has a higher than statewide proportion of adults with more than a HS degree, the overall household income level is fairly low for the city.

Demographically, it is less White than the City at large, with 64% White, 14% Latino, 10% Black, 4.2% Asian, 4.9% Mixed, 3.2% Other, and like many other parts of the city skews a bit on the younger side, with only 8% 65+. 

It is home to the University of Portland, an older Private Catholic University, which is a sister school of the better known University of Notre Dame, which has helped provide a boost to employment in the "core" part of the district.

Election Results 2004-2016:

2004: (27.2k Voters)---- (76-22 Kerry)     +54 D
2008: (29.1k Voters)---  (82-15 Obama)   +67D
2012: (30.2k Voters)---  (82-14 Obama)   +68 D
2016: (33.7k Voters)---  (79-11 Obama)   +68 D

Here's an area where I though there might have been some minor shift towards Trump among some of the WWC population, but that was not the case.

To be continued further into the Eastside

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #10: Multnomah County- Part IV

Oregon HD 45- This district roughly encompasses much of Central/Outer NE Portland and basically covers a number of neighborhoods to the North and South of Sandy Blvd (Major NNE thoroughfare) from NE 24st on the Western end and stretches all the way out past NE 122nd to the far NE section of the district.

The Western portion of the district is solidly upper middle-class posh Grant Park & Beaumont-Wilshire neighborhoods with the average home built in 1926 and home to many Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers, and Managers....

The Central portion of the district is more typically Middle-Class as you head into Rose City Park & Roseway, with occupations like education,

As you head further East into the neighborhoods of Sumner, Madison Park, and Parkrose it becomes more working-class and lower-middle class with a higher concentration of occupations in White Collar jobs like Sales, as well as Blue Collar sectors.

Ethnically, the district is slightly Whiter than average for Portland, but has one of the higher proportions of Asian-Americans for any HD within Portland, as well as a decent Latino and Black population... (73.8% White, 7.4% Asian, 7.3% Black, 6.4% Latino, 3.7% Mixed, 1.4% Other).

The Asian-American population is most heavily concentrated in the Rose City Park area, other neighborhoods in the Central part of the district, and in the Eastern part.... Heavily SE Asian (Large and established Vietnamese population around the Hollywood District, as well as a large Laotian community). Not unusual at all driving down Sandy to see signs in jewelry stores in Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian, as well as English....

The Latino population is most concentrated in the Eastern neighborhoods, closer to where the I-84 and I-205 converge, and also in the South Cully and Northern neighborhoods of Rose City Park.

Election Results (2004-2016):

2004: (32.8k Votes)----- (74-24 Kerry)      +50 D
2008: (32.9k Votes)----  (80-18 Obama)    +62 D
2012: (34.9k Votes)---   (79-17 Obama)     +62 D
2016: (37.6k Votes)---   (78-13 Clinton)     +65 D

Looking at the district by precincts, it appears that there was a major collapse of Republican support between '12/16 in areas with the highest Asian-American populations.... looking at the '04-'16 results there appears to be a correlation with areas with a significant number of both Asian and Latinos....

The parts of the district with the largest White populations, as well as upper-income communities were actually significantly more Democratic in '04/'08/'12 than those districts with large Asian and Latino populations....

However despite the largest swings towards Clinton happening in in the middle and working-class precincts with a large population of Asian and Latino Americans, these same precincts still gave Trump a higher % than in others within the district (Precincts 4509, 4510, and 4511).

OR-HD-46--- basically the equivalent of OR-HD45 in that it includes most of the population of Portland from the Central to Outer Eastside parts of the city.

It stretches from the heavily White and wealthy neighborhoods of Laurelhurst and Mt Tabor to White Middle-Class and gentrifying neighborhoods around Woodstock and Bretnwood-Darlington, to extremely Multi-Ethnic and Middle and Working Class neighborhoods as you move East towards 82nd.

Although, like most of Portland the population is heavily White, this district has the highest % of Asian-Americans in the City (13.3%) as well as a large Latino population (7.6%) and a for Portland a relatively small Black population (4.5%).

Economically, the median household income is a bit lower than in some other parts of the city, and likely because of where most of the residents live, there are a significant number of people that face longer commutes to jump over to the 205 or take side streets and thoroughfares to work elsewhere on the Eastside....

Politically, this has long been one of the more Republican parts of Portland in recent years, next to HD-38 in SW Portland, and like much of the City has been swinging Democratic.

Interestingly enough, the wealthier and Whiter precincts around Laurelhurst and Mt Tabor have been much more Democratic than the precincts with a higher percentage of Asian-Americans and Latinos....

The main change in HD precincts after 2010 added on areas East of the 205 that have a higher Asian and Latino population....

Election Results: 2004-2016:

2004: (31.3k Votes)---- (74-25 Kerry)      +49 D
2008: (31.3k Votes)---- (80-17 Obama)    +63 D
2012: (31.4k Votes)---  (79-17 Obama)    +62 D
2016: (35.3k Votes)---  (77-13 Clinton)     +64 D


Trump garnered <10% in Laurelhurst and Mt Tabor, but was able to achieve 24% in precinct 4607, which is the add-on East of the 205 which actually has some of the highest % of Non-Whites within the district....

Similar to HD-45 however, the biggest swing towards Clinton was in Precinct 4604, that has one of the highest percentage of Vietnamese-Americans in the district....

These same precincts (4125 and 4362) were the most Republican in 2008 where McCain garnered 28 and 24% respectively....

Vietnam Vet John Kerry in these same two precincts won, but George W. captured 38% and 33% respectively....

So regardless of the defection of White educated voters towards the Democratic Party in the Obama era, with a significant chunk of White Liberals going Green/Bernie, it appears that the major shift was with Asian-American voters starting to shift towards Obama in '12 and completely abandoning Trump in '16, while at the same time there was some minor movement towards Trump among WWC voters living in the apartments closer to the I-205 in more heavily Latino parts of the district.

Next stop Gresham and East County....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Election Update #10- Multnomah County- Part V

Oregon HD-47- The covers the bulk of the far Eastern side of Portland, roughly almost everything East of the I205 to the Eastern edge of the city limits from North of Holgate or Division on the Southern end to I-84 on the North.

This district has the lowest median household income of any part of Portland of only $42.2k/Yr. and as rents have skyrocketed in Portland over the past few years, contain some of the few neighborhoods where it is still possible to find semi-affordable housing.

There is a significantly higher population of individuals in Blue Collar occupations than many other parts of Portland in areas such as construction, transportation, production, material handling, facilities, and food services, and a much lower than average proportion in heavily White Collar occupations.

Only 26% of the population has a post HS degree, and about half of those are associates or vocational degrees.

It is a fairly multi-ethnic district for Portland and is only 59% Non-Latino White, with the highest Latino population of any part of the City (17%), as well as a large Asian-American population (11%), and about the citywide Black average (7.6%).

The Northern neighborhoods of Parkrose Heights, Russell, and the Southern part of Wilkes tend to be Whiter than the district at large (~70%) as well as being more middle-class with a median household income of $15k more than the district average.

The Latino population is relatively dispersed throughout the district, with the greatest concentrations in Centennial (26%), Mill Park (23%), and parts of Powellhurst-Gilbert (20%).

The Asian population is heaviest in Mill Park, SE Hazelwood (15%) and Powellhurst-Gilbert (15%) and is heavily Vietnamese-American, although there is a housing tract in Powellhurst-Gilbert that is 12% Chinese.

There is also a sizeable Russian-American community concentrated most heavily in Mill Park and Hazelwood neighborhood (8.6% Russian).

The Black population is most concentrated in the Northern part of Wilkes (16%) and in the Western part of Hazelwood and Centennial (10%), and throughout the Southern neighborhoods in the district.

The election districts remained virtually intact following 2010 redistricting...

Election Results: 2004-2016:

2004: (26.5k Voters)---- (59-40 Kerry)      +19 D
2008: (25.4k Voters)---  (65-32 Obama)    +33 D
2012: (22.5k Voters)---  (65-31 Obama)    +32 D
2016: (24.7k Voters)---  (61-28 Clinton)    +31 D

So interestingly enough, the most multi-ethnic and working-class State House District in Portland, is actually the most Republican in 2016!

Overall the biggest collapse in Republican support between '12 and '16 was in Whiter and more middle-class precincts (4702 & 4703), with the latter going from +22 D to +30 D....

Elsewhere, both parties lost support between '12 and '16 with a higher proportion of Democratic voters going 3rd Party than Republican voters.

There were two precincts (4706 & 4710) where 8% of the Democratic vote dropped off and the Republican vote remained constant, indicating some Obama '12/Trump '16 cross-over voters....

Both precincts have some fairly White housing tracts (63%) with a decent Latino population (15%), and have the lowest median household incomes in the district (~ $35k/yr).

However the Left (Greens & Bernie) managed to capture 8% of the vote in these two precincts with 4-5% voters going Libertarian, so although there were some WWC voters that switched parties, there wasn't really a net gain with some Romney '12 voters backing Clinton, and a chunk going Libertarian.

These were Bernie's two best precincts in this HD in the May Primary (+25 & +29), and Trump's best precinct in the entire city with >100 Republican voters in Portland (Running unopposed) was 4706 where he won 66% of the vote....

OR-HD 49----      Basically includes the sliver of SE-Portland adjacent to Clackamas County, including much of Brentwood-Darlington, Lents, and Pleasant Valley. Much of the district is located in the county next door, and is demographically fairly similar to OR HD-48, except it is a bit Whiter, with slightly fewer Latinos, and higher % of Asians, and lower proportion of Blacks.

The median household income in the MultCo part of the district is a bit higher than HD-48, although generally is still a Blue-Collar Working/Lower Middle-Class part of the City.

Election Results: 2004-2016:

2004: (20.2k Voters)---- (59-40 Kerry)      +19 D
2008: (18.8k Voters)---- (64-33 Obama)   +29 D
2012:  (10.9k Voters)---  (68-27 Obama)    +41 D
2016:  (12.5k Voters)---  (62-25 Clinton)     +37 D

The biggest swing was in precinct 4801, in the Western part of Pleasant Valley that is relatively Middle-Class compared to the rest of the district ($55k/Yr Median Household Income) and although 65% identify as Non-Latino White, there is not only a sizeable Asian and Latino population, but additionally 10% self-identify as of "Mixed Race/Ethnicity).... It was 57-41 Obama/Romney in '12 and was 55-33 Clinton in '16. with write-ins beating both Stein & Johnson (Bernie???). It was a relatively weak precinct for Trump in the primaries in the outer Eastside (56%) and relatively strong Bernie precinct for the area (62%)....

Oregon House District 49---- Located virtually entirely outside of the City of Portland, about 50% of the vote is located in North Gresham, with most of the remainder located in Troutdale and Fairview.

The district, like most of East County is fairly Blue Collar and Working-Class with a Median Household income of ~ $48k/Yr, and occupations concentrated in areas like material-movement, transportation, production, repair, as well as "Pink Collar" jobs in Administrative and Food Service.

Ethnically, it matches the county average in terms of Non-Latino Whites (67%) and although it has a lower proportion of Asians (4.9%) and Blacks (4.4%), it has the highest percentage of Latinos of any part of the county of any of the OR-HDs thus far (19%).

Gresham was a small sleepy town of <10k residents until 1970, but has exploded in population, but has mushroomed in recent decades to become the 4th largest city in the state with >100k residents, and places in the top ten cities in the state in terms of percentage population growth between 2010 and 2014.

Although it does not have as fast a % growth rate as some of the other areas in Metro-Portland, likely as a result of being located way out in East County making it less of an attractive bedroom community, and also not having as many large employers as in Washington County that have helped drive growth in places like Beaverton & Hillsboro, it's obviously still a big population center that accounts for roughly 15% of the population of Multnomah County, and has a larger population than the vast majority of counties in the State....

Although Gresham is frequently associated with Boeing (the largest private-sector employer) in the city with 1.5-2k direct FTE, it also has a major US Bank Check processing center (1.5-2k FTE), as well as large computer chip manufacturers, Call Centers, and Food Distribution centers that employ a significant number of people.

The Gresham precincts located within the district include some heavily Latino precincts (4910 & 4911), where you see some census tracts >30% Latino and others running more like 20-25% (4909)....

The Black population in the district is also concentrated in the same two precincts 4910/4911 (9-11%)

The Asian-American population isn't that large in Gresham, but mainly in 4910, and 8-10% in parts of Troutdale....

Troutdale (Pop 13.8k) to the East is overwhelmingly White (88%) and has the highest median household income in the district (~ $65k/Yr) and accounts for 30% of the district's votes.

There was a major aluminum plant in the city established during WWII that closed back in 2000, and increasingly tourism defines the local economic base of the City.

Election Results 2004-2016:

District lines remained constant after the 2010 redistricting.

2004: (24.7k Votes)---- (54-44 Kerry)      +10D
2008: (23.6k Votes)---  (59-38 Obama)   +21 D
2012: (23.0k Votes)---  (57-40 Obama)    +17 D
2016: (25.0k Votes)---- (49-39 Clinton)    +10 D

If we break down the cities by cities within the district we see some interesting results:

Gresham:

2004: (12.7k Votes)--- (57-42 Kerry)    +15 D
2008: (11.6k Votes)--- (61-36 Obama)  +25 D
2012: (11.2k Votes)--- (59-37 Obama)   +22 D
2016: (12.2k Votes)--- (52-37 Clinton)   +15 D

This definitely appears to reinforce something we have seen in other precincts and HDs in MultCo.... There was clearly a chunk of Obama '08/'12 voters that crossed over for Trump '16.... Johnson captured about 5%, Write-Ins (Bernie?) about 4% and Stein/Greens about 3%.

Gresham was not one of Bernie's strongest parts of Oregon, let alone MultCo, however he did better in the working-class heavily Multi-Ethnic voters here, than he did in heavily Upper-Middle Class White neighborhoods in West Portland.... Trump performed relatively well in these precincts and his highest performance in the primaries was precinct 4908, where he only lost by 4.6%, and one of his best precincts in EastCo...

Troutdale: Election Results 2004-2016:

2004: (7.1k Votes)---- (50-49 Kerry)     +1 D
2008: (7.0k Votes)---  (55-43 Obama)   +12 D
2012: (6.9k Votes)---  (51-46 Obama)   +5 D
2016: (7.4k Votes)---  (44-43 Clinton)    +1 D

So again, in this district we see a similar pattern that we have seen in many other parts of WWC Oregon in areas with a high Blue-Collar population.... a dramatic drop-off in support for the Democratic candidate, and the Republican nominee holding the floor up compared to '04 or '08 numbers with a minor level of cross-over Obama '08/'12 numbers with a slight McCain/Romney Clinton cross-over.

[NOVA Green]

OR-House District-50:---- ok trying to wrap this up, because #1 am getting a little tired of Multnomah County, and #2, I think the patterns are talking for themselves...

95% of the population is concentrated entirely in the City of Gresham, so see my comments above.

The district is 73% White and 16% Latino with a small Black, Asian, Mixed and other population with the Latino population heavily concentrated in the NW and far Eastern sections of the City....

Overall the district is fairly Blue Collar and Working-Class and in theory should be an excellent example of "the Trump effect" with WWC voters....

Election Results 2004-2008:

2004: (28.3k Voters)--- (50-49 Kerry)       +1 D
2008: (27.4k Voters)--- (56-42 Obama)   +14 D
2012: (23.6k Voters)--- (54-42 Obama)    +12 D
2016: (26.0k Voters)--- (49-39 Clinton)    +10 D

Trump actually won a precinct here (46-42) # 5006 in the far NE section of the district that is a bit more solidly Middle-Class than working-class and Upper-Middle-class sections of the city...

OR-HD 51:

Small district in SE MultCo that has a few isolated PDX precincts, one from Gresham and a few Uninc areas...

Generally fits the pattern of HD 47-49....

2004: (1.5k Voters)---   (44-55 George W)   +11 R
2008: (1.5k Voters)---    (62-34 Obama)       +28 D
2012: (10.9k Voters)--- (60-37 Obama)       +23 D
2016: (12.3k Voters)---  (53-36 Clinton)       +17 D

Not sure what's going on here, but thinking there were new developments added within the urban growth boundaries that caused an explosion of affordable housing before the bust... will need to look into this.

HD-52:... two small precincts that include all of the rural area East of Portland Metro going up into the national forest and Columbia River gorge areas...

2004: (4.3k Voters)---- (47-52 George W.)     +5 R
2008: (4.1k Voters)---  (48-49 McCain)          +1 R
2012: (6.5k Voters)---- (46-51 Romney)        +5 R
2016: (7.0k Voters)---- (40-49 Trump)           +9 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #11: Hood River County

Time to take a break from large Metro counties and drop over to the Eastern side of the Cascade Mountain Range into a heavily rural county, that has been trending Democratic for some years, and the only county that I have covered so far on this thread, where there was a strong Democratic rural precinct showing in 2016.

Note: My definition of rural might be a bit different from the generic term that many on the Forum use to describe counties, and since precinct level results, as well as Oregon Land Use Planning laws limit development in areas zoned agricultural/forest, it provides a better snapshot of how actual rural voters shifted between '12/'16 versus small-towns and cities that might share certain rural characteristics...

So to summarize what we have seen from the data of rural precincts in Oregon thus far, Trump and 3rd Party voting wiped out most of the rural Democratic precincts between '12/'16, even in Clatsop County, as well as Columbia. We do see Clinton doing fairly well in rural precincts in Benton County, although many of these are places outside of cities where individuals commute to work in neighboring population centers. We saw a similar phenomenon in parts of Marion County, and although I didn't dig into as much detail, but appears to be a similar phenomenon combined with a few precincts with heavy Latino populations. 

In Deschutes County, the "rural" precincts that Clinton won were basically outside of Bend (Where the Prez Republican vote share collapsed between '12 and '16).

Jefferson County, Clinton won the precinct with the Warm Springs Indian Reservation as well as another rural precinct directly to the South.

Hood River County Background- ---- Is a small county both in terms of land area (2nd smallest in Oregon) and population of only 22.3k (2010 census) tucked on the Eastern slopes of the Cascade Mtn range with the Columbia River on the Northern boundary with Washington State, and part of the Mt Hood in the Southern Part of the County.

Mostly thought of by Portlandiers as a weekend tourist destination, and "the" place to go wind-surfing in the region, and enjoy year around outdoor sports activities from skiing in the Winter to hiking/Mountain Biking other seasons, tourism is actually only a sliver of the economy of Hood River County.

Agriculture is still a dominant force in the county, with approx 2,000 jobs directly tied to the harvesting of the apples and is the world's #1 producer of d'Anjou Pears in the World, and the #1 producer of pears in the United States. Additionally, the growing conditions have also created a dramatic growth in Vineyards and Wineries. There are also ~1.7k jobs tied to "post-harvest" jobs in fruit packing, canning, & shipping of the harvests, which is essentially a nine month season.

There is also a significant High-Tech sector that has exploded throughout the region, with the largest single private-sector employer in the County Insitu (Now purchased by Boeing) that developed the ScanEagle38 unmanned drone widely deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, being at the forefront, along with several computer chip mfg companies, as well as Tech start-ups and smaller Indie Software companies.

Round that out with a large Health Care sector, that provides services to the larger region and you had a relatively "Recession-Proof" formula, that allowed this region to avoid a dramatic spike in unemployment during the Great Recession.

Part of the magic formula was also a dramatic increase in Wind Energy development in the region, funded by stimulus $$$ and state alternative energy funds, and many of the construction related job losses were completely offset by the boom in construction worked that kicked in around 2009 to build the Wind Farms along the Gorge.

Ethnically, Hood River County has one of the highest percentage of Latinos in Oregon (30%) and unlike Umatilla and Malheur Counties to the East, the majority are US Citizens, as well as a significantly chunk of workers under H2-A and H2-B "Guestworker" programs as there is a significant shortage of labor in the agricultural sector, and agricultural employers are frequently trying to expand employment from seasonal to longer-term by adjusting crop varieties and harvest seasons, especially since Obama has made it much more difficult for Los Migros, or as Ricarado Arjona the Central American Singer-Songwriter talked about in his song "Mojado" (Saw him live in Houston back in early '15---- check it out is a powerful song), to be able to cross the border to work the jobs in the fields with the Pre-Trump "Deporter in Chief".

So--- slightly OT, but the farmers of Hood River County not only have a major shortage of workers in the fields, where the average farm size is only 48 acres, with a "medium sized" farm of 19 acres (check out comparisons for a small/medium farm in the Northern Sac Valley), but additionally many of the farmers are Asian-Americans (10%) in a region where Japanese-Americans were sent to the equivalent of "concentration camps" (Not "extermination camps") but basically detention centers in the deserts throughout the West simply because of their country of ancestry, and lost all of their property, although many did come back to the Hood River area, and some got back into farming. Latinos represent 7% of the farmers in the county, and many of the Anglo farmers are only a generation or two removed from the "Okies" that came to pick the apples and pears during the Great Depression.... Check out the original Woody Guthrie, or the Bob Dylan cover of "Pastures of Plenty" to get some context.

Time to actually start pulling some voting numbers, now that I've tried to provide a local narrative of why this tiny predominately rural county is increasingly Democratic....

Will start with county level and then start shifting to precinct....

Hood River Co Election Results (2000-2016)

2000: (48-44 Gore)       +4 D    (Nader got 8%)
2004: (57-42 Kerry)      +15 D
2008: (64-33 Obama)    +31 D
2012: (62-35 Obama)    +27 D
2016: (60-30 Clinton)    +30 D   (Green 3%, Libertarian 5%, Write-Ins (Bernie?) 3%

So it appears that Republicans used to be able to capture >40% of the vote in the County in 2000 and 2004, and their numbers at the Presidential level have collapsed by 25-33% between 2000 and 2016....

ok--- more detailed precinct level coming up in the 2nd part (Needed to split my post into two parts because of the 11,000 character limit.

Give me 30-60 minutes for Part II.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #11- Hood River County- Part II

Hood River is one of only a small number of counties in Oregon that actually has precinct level results going back to 2000, and plus their precincts haven't changed much, and it isn't a high growth area, making it a bit easier for "apples to apples" when looking at the data.

The largest, and only city located within the county, is Hood River (Pop 7.2k---2010) and accounted for 34% of the county vote in 2016, up from 32% in '12, 31% in '04, and 29% in 2000. As stated multiple times elsewhere, Oregon limits growth in rural areas outside of designated "urban growth boundaries", and even then like elsewhere in America, locals tend to leave more rural areas and migrate towards the regional "city" in search of work, opportunities, cultural amenities, and dating activities, etc...

The City itself is slightly less Latino (~25% 2010) than the County at large (30%), with a significantly lower than average household income ($32k/Yr-2000) than the county ($57.6k)....

Hood River City- Election Results 2000-2016 (County Precincts 1-3):

2000: (55-35 Gore)     +20 D    (Nader 9.4%)
2004: (67-32 Kerry)    +35 D
2008: (72-26 Obama)  +46 D
2012: (69-27 Obama)  +42 D
2016: (69-22 Clinton)  +47 D  ( 2.7% Green, 4.4% Lib, 2.7% Write-Ins (Bernie?)

So something obviously dramatically occurred in Hood River between '12 and '16 in a relatively working-class city, as well as the larger story of the changes in the city between 2000 and 2016.

Precinct #1: Is the Whitest (75%) and most Middle Class part of the City (~$45-50k/Yr household income) (SE Hood River), although there are some heavily Latino census tracts in the Northern part of the precinct.

2000: (56-32 Gore)       +24 D                           11% Nader
2004: (69-30 Kerry)      +39 D  (+15 D Swing)
2008: (73-25 Obama)   +48 D  (+9 D Swing)
2012: (70-26 Obama)  +44 D  (-4 D Swing)
2016: (69-21 Clinton)    +45 D  (+1 D Swing)

Precinct #2: Is a bit more Latino (37%) and slightly more working-class...

2000: (54-38 Gore)      +16 D                          (Nader 7%)
2004: (62-37 Kerry)      +25 D    (+9 D Swing)
2008: (69-29 Obama)   +40 D    (+15 D Swing)
2012: (67-29 Obama)    +38 D   (-2 D Swing)
2016: (67-24 Clinton)    +43 D    (+5 D Swing)

Hmmm....

Precinct #3: Is the most heavily Latino precinct in the City (62%) and also the poorest and most working-class in terms of household income (Northern Hood River):

2000: (56-32 Gore)        +24 D                               (11% Nader)
2004: (72-27 Kerry)       +45 D   (+21 D Swing)
2008:  (76-21 Obama)    +55 D  (+10 D Swing)
2012:  (73-24 Obama)    +49D   (-6 D Swing)
2016:  (72-18 Clinton)    +54 D   (+5 D Swing)         (2.5% Green, 5% Lib, 2.5% Write-Ins (Bernie?)

So overall a massive swing towards the Dems between 2000 and 2004, that even if one accounts for the "Nader Vote" in 2000 appears to have been most heavily concentrated in the most working-class and Latino precinct within the City....

Between 2012 and 2016 there was a net swing towards the Democrats in Precincts #2 and a virtual tie in Precinct #3, even with the context of younger voters skewing more heavily Latino and like their peers elsewhere rejecting the "establishment" message of Clinton while despising Trump...

If we take a peak at a few precincts that are essentially "rural" areas right outside the City of Hood River we might expect to see some swings towards Trump...

Precinct #4- SW of the City but more "Exurban" in character is ~86% Non-Latino White, with a Median Household income of ~ $90k/Yr (About 190% of the County average), and we see a similar pattern that we have seen before in relatively high-income Anglo precincts throughout Oregon (See examples from Benton, Deschuttes, and Multnomah for a few examples)...

2000: (48-44 Gore).... 2004: (55-43 Kerry)... 2008: (63-34 Obama)...2012: (62-35 Obama)...   2016: (64-26 Clinton).

So Clinton gained +2 over Obama '12 and Trump lost 9% off of Romney '12.

The wealthiest and Whitest precinct in Hood River County had the biggest swing towards Clinton between '12 and '16 (+27 to +38) for a +11.6% Swing, regardless of 3rd Party Votes, and it even swung 9.1% between '08 and '16!!!


Precincts #5-13 most of rural Hood River County, saw a marginal change in Dem-Rep margins between '12 and '16, with a few exceptions.

If we start driving down the "Fruit Loop" precincts (Which I named after the famous loop where one drives SE of Hood River down Mt Hood Drive, rolling through the major agricultural regions of the county with a plethora of roadside stands through O'Dell, down to Parkrose, and then loop back up through Dee on the way back to Hood River, overall we see relatively small changes in the total margin between '12 and '16, despite passing through some of the most heavily Latino precincts in the county....

Countywide, Clinton improved overall by +1.2% Obama '08 margins largely as a result of the City of Hood River and the Upper-Middle Class Anglo precinct outside of city limits.

Clinton did improve over Obama '12 margins in most of the rural precincts, AND she carried all but one precinct in the county (Precinct #12).

Obama carried ALL precincts in the county in both '08/'12 and in 2008 he won every precinct by at least 15% margins....

Kerry lost one Precinct (#13) by 1 vote, and George W. carried 6/13 precincts, but despite the obvious defection to the Left in the 2000 Election (Nader), overall the Democratic margins between 2000 and 2016 swelled from a +4 Dem victory to a +30 Dem Victory....

There are two outlier precincts that swung heavily towards Trump and against Clinton between '12 and '16, that tell us a bit more about the types of voters that went heavily Obama in '08/'12 and swung massively towards Trump in '16.

Precinct #9 (Dee Oregon (Uninc).... Confess, I don't know a lot about the community, but it looks like basically a small village that supports a larger agricultural area, where the local hardware and feed stores are shut down, as consumers go to buy cheaper goods at larger box stores....

Could be wrong, but (144-178 voters from 2000-2016) and was 49-41 Gore (2000), swung 55-43 Kerry (2004), swung hard Obama 60-38 (2008), 55-42 Obama (2012) and then 45-43 Clinton (2016).... Looks to be a classic "No Hope.... No change, but still not Republican precinct.

Precinct #12 is more significant in terms of population, and basically predominately includes the City of Cascade Locks, as well as some homesteaders that have property up in National Forest Land:

There was a 25% swing towards the Republicans between 2012 and 2016.... WTF is going on out there?

Ok--- the City of Cascade locks is 88% Non-Latino White... Cool, whatever, sounds like many parts of rural Oregon.... Unemployment rate is 18.8%----- whoah, not cool. Insane unemployment rate post Great Recession that Obama was gonna fix, right???

Precinct #12 Election Results 2000-2016:

2000: (50-41 Kerry)      +9 D     (7% Nader)
2004: (52-46 Kerry)      +6 D
2008: (57-40 Obama)   +17 D
2012: (58-37 Obama)   +23 D
2016: (42-44 Trump)     +2 R       (3.1 Green, 7.4 Libertarian, 4.0 Write-Ins (Bernie?)

There were two major local issues that would each have provided jobs to a struggling local economy:

1.) Proposal that date back to 1999 to create a 7th "off-Native-Land" Casino in Cascade locks that was eventually shot down in 2013. This is a complicated subject, but I am 100% convinced that locals blamed Statewide Democratic political leaders for the failure of the casino project. Additionally, although the Feds and Dpt of the Interior were involved, because the proposed location was under Federal jurisdiction, even though it got stalled under the George W. administration, I wouldn't be surprised if many locals blamed the Feds ultimately (Definitely not Obama considering the '08 to '12 swing), but still Clinton may not have had as much street cred as Obama on this.... why would Trump gain 7% over Romney '12 numbers (37 to 44)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Columbia_Gorge_casino

2.) Proposal from Nestle that would have built a major water-bottling plant in Cascade Locks. This was fought by local, state, and national environmental organizations....

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2016/05/anti-nestle_ballot_measure_in.html

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2016/05/opponents_of_water_bottling_pl.html

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2016/05/opponents_of_water_bottling_pl.html

https://keepnestleout.wordpress.com/

http://www.kgw.com/news/local/state-paves-way-for-nestle-water-bottling-plans-despite-county-vote/347240019

Anyways--- no idea what the actual merits of this are, but regardless, this small community has been suffering economically, and it seems like a bunch of people are pissed-off that attempts to expand larger employers have been shut down by "outside forces" and Trump's "Jobs...jobs... jobs... message resonated.

I suspect this is a situation where all politics are local, but this is my explanation as to why there would be a 23% swing between '12 and '16, regardless of 3rd Party drop-off.

I was trying to figure out why this community would have an unemployment rate of almost 19%, and quite frankly none of the numbers match!!!!

Regardless, the community still appears to have some of the lowest income and highest unemployment rates in the county, not to mention quite a bit higher than the statewide average, but my eyebrows shot to the top of my hairline when I saw almost European style unemployment numbers of 20% and I couldn't find any records of a major factory or mill shutdown in the past year that would have caused those numbers.

https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/city-unemployment-rates-in-the-columbia-gorge-february-2015

http://www.homefacts.com/unemployment/Oregon/Hood-River-County/Cascade-Locks.html

http://www.areavibes.com/cascade+locks-or/employment/

http://city-stats.org/or/cascade-locks/employment/cascade-locks-employment-statistics

[NOVA Green]

Oregon- County Update #12- Josephine County

Time to take a break from a heavily Democratic Urban County (Multnomah) and a heavily Democratic Rural County (Hood River) and take a look at what's going on in arguably the most historically "Rock-Ribbed" Republican County West of the Cascades.

There are few counties in Oregon that can claim the distinction of having voted for Barry Goldwater instead of LBJ in the largest Democratic landslide since the New Deal. In fact, it's been so long honestly I can't remember, and being currently unemployed I don't have access to Dave's excellent database to look it up, but am assumining it likely went for FDR at least once during the Great Depression....

Southern Oregon, and this County in particular was especially impacted by the Gold Rush (Think the SF '49ers) and after the settler population realized that there was no Gold for them in California, many of the riff-raff moved North to Oregon to pan for Gold in the Mountain streams of modern day Jackson/Josephine and Douglas Counties.

The region, like most of Oregon South of Benton County (Which was kind of a border region) was settled by Southerners who were sympathetic to the cause of succession. Genocide against Native Tribes soon followed, where based upon some isolated incidents of Native Resistance, entire communities where forcibly relocated to the Siltez  and Grande Ronde Reservations along the Central Oregon Coast. Essentially a small scale Oregon version of the "Trail of Tears"....

By the 1920s the County was starting to market itself as a tourist destination, and created the legendary "Grants Pass Cavemen Society" and performed a variety of media stunts, including blocking traffic to creating a bid for construction of the SF-Oakland bridge in exchange for 24 Million Deer Hides...

Although doubtless there were some benefits from tourism, it wasn't until the late 1950s and 1960s, when the Timber Industry kicked off "Big League" in the county, that population numbers began to increase significantly, and Josephine went from a county ridiculed throughout the state as a hotbed of John Birchers and Survivalists and moved towards an economic structure with decent paying jobs at family owned timber mills, that although they were non-union generally, still supported the county taxes for schools and other social benefits as part of Oregon's complex structure of sharing revenue from logging on Federal and State lands with local government.

Personal anecdote: My wife grew up in Grant's Pass in the '70s, and when I was a child heading South on I-5 towards Ashland/Medford in the 1980s  I still remember seeing the lights and timber yards of what used to be three large timber mills, that provided employment to many local residents, as well as considerable dollars to the local economy. If you drive down I-5 heading South and look towards what used to be called "The Gut" it is now a giant shopping center that employs people making barely above minimum wage working in retail outlets and box stores.

The last Mill in Jospehine closed a few years ago....  This is part of the reason that I have consistently reacted when we get knee-jerk "Liberal Democrats" that bag on places like West Virginia, because in my mind, when Democrats blame the workers in extraction-based economic sectors on the ground of the "greater good on environmental policy", they are falling into the same trap that happened in Oregon in the late '80s and '90s where it becomes a "jobs versus the environment" false dichotomy and is exactly the trap that the big timber companies and junk-bond merchants played back in the days in Oregon....

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/05/rough_ready_lumber_josephine_c.html

ok---- mini rant aside.

Josephine County has always been one of the most Republican Counties in the state, and yet Obama actually performed relatively well here in 2008, both in the urban areas (Grants Pass) as well as rural precincts....

County Election Results 2000-2016:

2000:  (32-60 George W.)    +28 R    (5% Nader)
2004:  (36-62 George W.)    +26 R
2008:  (41-55 McCain)         +14 R
2012:  (37-59 Romney)       +22 R
2016:  (30-61 Trump)          +31 R

So looks pretty clear, 2000 Nader voters come home to the Democrats, the county swings hard towards Obama in '08, a major swing towards Romney in '12 with 4% of Obama '08 voters going for the other guy. 2016 huge collapse in Democratic % numbers, but minimal gain on the Republican side, essentially taking the Republican % back to 2000 and 2004 George W. numbers.

Now if we start breaking the precinct numbers down into more detail, it helps understand where the real swings happened....

Let's start with the largest, and only real city in the County:

Grants Pass: (34.5k---2010)---

2008: (43-54 McCain)      +11 R     (36% of County Vote)
2012: (39-57 Romney)    +18 R     (36% of County Vote)
2016: (32-58 Trump)       +26 R     (38.6% of County Vote)

Note that the Trump barely improves over McCain, and virtually all of the changes are from Obama '12 voters shifting to 3rd Party Candidates.

Rural Josephine still accounted for 62% of the county vote in '16...

2008:   (41-55 McCain)     +14 R
2012:   (36-60 Romney)   +24 R
2016:   (29-62 Trump)      +33 R

Ok--- so on surface rural areas swung hard towards Trump, right and that's the reason for the major swings?

Well--- not all rural areas are created equal, and actually the most Democratic parts of Josephine County are actually heavily rural in nature....

So, let's take a peak at the Illinois River Valley Area (Think Cave junction and then some).... a place where a ton of hippies moved out to the hills and intermarried with the Vietnam Vets, and guns, tie-dyes and growing weed have been a cultural norm for the past 40+ years, but a bit more redneck than some similar parts of Humboldt and Mendocino Counties in Cali....

2008: (49-46 Obama)    +3 D   (14% of the County Vote)
2012: (44-50 Romney)   +6 R
2016: (34-54 Trump)      +26 R

So clearly you have a boatload of Obama-Trump voters out here, in the most Democratic part of the county

Meanwhile you have a down-ballot effect in the OR-CD-04 race in a Democratic district (43% D- 50% R- 5% Green- 2% Lib)....

In the US Senate Race Lib Dem Ron Wyden wins, but barely (44% D- 42 % R- 8.2% Left (Green & Working Family Party), 4% for an anti Free Trade Progressive candidate, and 2% for a Libertarian)....

Actually, in this part of Oregon, I have seen the highest percentage support for Jill Stein of any precinct in Oregon to date.... (9.4%)...

Now, the biggest swings in rural Josephine occurred in the Illinois River Valley Area, where the last mill was shut down in 2013, in what has been a fairly Democratic rural area....  (Coincidence?)))

There weren't a ton of Obama12-Trump16 cross-overs in most of the County, the biggest drop actually were Obama '08/ Romney '12 voters in most places, with a slight drip from '12/'16....

Illinois River Valley area is the exception, when it came towards a major swing towards the Republican Presidential candidate.

Yes there is still a solid base of Democratic Voters in rural Oregon...

Liberal Senator Ron Wyden won the largest city by 42 votes in 2016.... DeFazio (OR-CD-04) performed well in rural Josephine, with Grants Pass being entirely concentrated in OR-CD-02) and significantly out-performed Clinton....

What stands out at the Federal level is the complete collapse of Democratic support, with most of the shift happening towards the Left at all levels where voters feel like there is "no hope and no change" but still not wanting to suckle up on the nipples of the Trump Train, but still feeling like they have been sold down the river by the Modern Neo-Corporate shift in the Democratic Party that appears to care more about Wall Street than Main Street.

ok--- end rant. Precinct level results in Josephine speak for themselves, and chose to interpret them how you will.







 

[Nym90]

FDR won every county in Oregon in 1936 and all but Benton (!) in 1932.

[NOVA Green]

FDR won every county in Oregon in 1936 and all but Benton (!) in 1932.

Thanks Nym!

That actually raises an interesting point regarding the impact of the New Deal throughout the entire US, both Urban and Rural.

One of the interesting side-notes regarding legacy New Deal sentiments in many extremely historically remote parts of forested regions of the Western Oregon Coastal Mountains, and even to some extent in smaller mill-town communities in the region, is the vast influx of unemployed Americans from throughout the country, as well as parts of Oregon as well, that were deployed to fight forest fires, build roads and bridges and hydro-electric dams and the like.

This not only stimulated the local economy by providing an influx of capital in the form of workers spending their paychecks on "Main Street", but also more fundamentally when combined with the impact of infrastructural investment from that era and later during WW II, helped build the economic foundation that allowed the dramatic expansion of the logging industry throughout the state between '50 and '70, as well as a boom in tourism in remote Coastal towns and elsewhere.

This is a key part of the reason why much of Coastal Oregon remained solidly Democratic, even during the '84 Reagan landslide.... 

Southern Oregon is a somewhat different beast, and the influx of Middle and Lower-Middle Class retirees into the Rogue Valley (Grants Pass & Medford) and higher income retirees into places like Ashland & Curry County has mixed up the demographics a bit, especially with these three counties (Curry/Jackson/Josephine) having some of the highest % levels of migration from California (But behind the "hot zone" of Central Oregon (Deschutes/Crook/Jefferson).

Benton County voting Republican in '36 doesn't totally surprise me actually, although being the only County to not vote for FDR does....

Basically the county was dominated by a land grant college, and maybe this was a case of the "young Turk" Republican college kids sticking it to the party in power???

What I can tell you, is that the "founding father" of Corvallis was a notorious supporter of Southern succession prior to the Civil War, and the City had notoriously racist "sunset laws" up until some time in the 1950s (For those younger folks out there and those not familiar with history, basically a law that prohibited African-Americans from being in town after dark), while meanwhile the neighboring town of Philomath (Literally a Greek translation meaning "Love of Math") was settled as an Abolitionist colony back in the late 1840s/early 1850s (?) and actually had one of the few cemeteries in the region where Blacks and Whites could be buried side by side.... the historic cemetery is still there on the hill on the far Eastern side right out of city.

[Nym90]

Actually it was 1932 that Benton voted Republican for Herbert Hoover. In 1936, FDR won every county in the state.

I think your logic still stands though. College towns were very Republican back then since only the wealthiest could afford to go to college (especially in 1932 at the height of the Depression) and my understanding is that college professors were mostly of the elite class back then as well.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 13: Lincoln County

Here is a map of Oregon Counties that I have covered to date on this thread....



Time to shift back to a heavily Democratic, predominately rural and small town county, that is at the heart of the Central Oregon Coast.

Lincoln County (Pop 46k- 2010)  used to be a small rural backwater until the 1930s when several major bridges were built to allow automobile traffic across the Bays at Waldport, Newport, & Siletz as part of a New Deal Project that eliminated the bottlenecks caused by Ferry crossings over deep and wide rivers dropping down from the Oregon Coast range towards the Pacific Ocean.

Like many parts of Coastal Oregon, the economy is heavily dependent upon fishing, timber, and tourism, and Newport still ranks along with Astoria (Clatsop County) in the top 20 fishing ports in the United States.

Anecdotal, but was just walking the docks of Newport a month or so back, and some old timer fishermen are giving props to one of the Captains of a boat that was featured on the "Deadliest Catch" episode that featured four local fishing boats.

Lincoln City is a primo tourist destination, by virtue of relative proximity to both Salem and Metro-Portland, as well as the only real casino located on the Oregon Coast: Chinook Winds "It's always better at the Beach".

Toledo is a slightly inland town East of Newport and is basically a historic Timber Mill community, and where I was considering applying for a job position just recently.

Like most of Oregon, Lincoln County is overwhelmingly White, with an 8% Latino population and 3.5% Native American Population, although there is a significant "Mixed Race/Ethnic" population (I hate using these terms, but this is based on Census Bureau classifications that actually allowed a greater degree of self-identification in 2010 than in previous years).

Still, heavily working Class (Median Household income $40k-2010), and also has one of the highest percentages of Seniors (65+) in the state outside of Curry County.

In theory, Lincoln County should have been prime Trump country.... In fact I scoffed at an Oregon poll that showed Clinton only leading Trump by 10% among voters in Coastal Oregon (Will need to look up the actual poll and respond on the appropriate thread), but I confess that I underestimated the massive defection towards 3rd Party candidates in this part of the state, and didn't envision what was essentially a complete collapse of the Democratic Presidential candidate vote, although Trump barely gained off of Romney '12 Republican numbers.

Lincoln County Oregon- 2000-2016 Presidential Election Results:

2000: (51-40 Gore)       +11 D                                      (Nader 7%)
2004: (57-42 Kerry)      +15 D  (+4 D Swing)
2008: (60-37 Obama)   +23 D   (+8 D Swing)
2012: (58-38 Obama)    +20 D  (-3 D Swing)
2016: (50-40 Clinton)    +10 D  (-10 D Swing)              (5% Lib, 3% Green, 3% Write-In (Bernie?)

So, not a county with a ton of pop changes 2000-2016 and yet 2016 numbers look very close to 2000 numbers.....

Trump was able to match George W. numbers from 2000 and under-perform George W numbers from 2004. Meanwhile, Obama had a slight drop from '08 to '12 and Clinton managed to lose 8% of the total county voters from Obama '12 numbers.... WTF is going on???

So let's drill down a bit more into the cities/towns/rural areas of Lincoln County to see where this collapse occurred....

Lincoln County doesn't have one major population center, but is rather a mixture of smaller cities/towns, Coastal rural areas, and rural areas up in the Mountains of the Coastal Range.

1.) Newport- (Pop 10.1k-2010) that accounted for 26% of the County vote in '12 and 25% in '16.

A gritty old school fishing town, that is close to my heart for over three decades. Anyone wanting to visit and spend time on the Oregon Coast and see what real life is like, outside of the tourist season, this is a town where you can buy fresh Salmon and Tuna right off the docks, walk by the seafood processing plants (That were hiring when I was there a month or two back) that deliver Oregon Shrimp, Crabs, Salmon, and Tuna straight to the restaurants and grocery markets throughout the West Coast and beyond.

Additionally, the fishing industry in Newport has been at the forefront of the sustainable fishing movement in the West Coast and beyond to conserve the natural bounty of the ocean for both economic and environmental reasons... (Side Note: One of the biggest clashes in the late '80s/early '90s Oregon Timber Wars wasn't just the Urban Environmentalists vs Logger/Mill Workers but was about the impact of a dramatic drop in commercial and sports fishing that caused a major collapse in Salmon harvests)....

Ethnically--- Newport has one of the highest Latino % in the county (15%), most heavily concentrated in the seafood processing industry and service sectors (Food & Hospitality industries).

Like much of rural and small-town Oregon, there is the scourge of Meth addiction, and the seasonal nature of the workforce is such that as I recently experienced spending a week at a cheap budget motel, where practically every night and even in the daytime (!) there were extremely unusual activities and sketchy characters banging on my "neighbors" next doors in order to "talk".

Newport Election Results: 2012-2016:

2012: (62-35 Obama)    +27 D
2016: (55-35 Clinton)    +20 D     (-7 D Swing)     (4% Lib, 3% Green, 3% Write-In (Bernie?)

If we look at where the smallest swings away from Clinton were, we see them in the Middle and Upper-Middle Class neighborhoods on the Northside of town, for example in the Agate Beach Precinct.

The biggest drops from Obama '12/Clinton '16 numbers are in overwhelmingly Democratic precincts around Nye Beach and the Bay Front, where Obama captured almost 70% of the vote in 2012....


2.) Lincoln City--- (7.9k Pop- 2010) ----- Went from 21.4% of the county vote in '12 to 23.2% in '16. If these current growth rates continue will likely surpass Newport as the largest City in the County by 2020.

The economy of Lincoln City is much more dependent upon retirees and tourism than Newport, because of the closer proximity to Metro-Portland and Salem, the highest number of hotel rooms on the Oregon Coast, the presence of the only Casino on the Oregon Coast, and some pretty dank sandy beaches that stretch for miles....

Lincoln City Election Results- 2012-2016:

2012: (59-37 Obama)    +22 D
2016: (48-41 Clinton)    +7 D    (5% Lib, 3% Green, 4% Write-In (Bernie?)

So clearly def some Obama '12/Trump '16 voters here, but still take a look at the 3rd Party numbers.... overall a bigger '12/'16 Rep swing than Newport.

The largest swing towards Trump was in the Sunset-East Precinct that went (56-39 Obama-Romney) and voted (49-41 Trump).... This is on the Northern side of the City in the Working and Middle-Class neighborhoods on the Northern end of Devil's Lake, and not on the Pacific Ocean side, and accounted for much of the swing between '12/'16 numbers in Lincoln City.

3.) Toledo--- (Pop 3.5k- 2010)..... (7.7% County Vote in '12 and 7.3% in '16).

This is a heavily Blue Collar and Working-Class historic timber mill town, that is not only overwhelmingly Anglo (5% Latino Population), but also a company town where George-Pacific (Now owned by the Koch brothers) is facing the potential of the plant being shut down as a result of unfair trade competition from China, where they are clear-cutting the forests of SE Asia, while also taking American "recycled" paper products to process in their paper mills to re-export to America in the form of Recycled toilet paper, paper towels, and certain facial tissues are destroying domestic manufacturing.

Election Results 2012-2016:

2012: (53-42 Obama)  +11 D
2016: (38-49 Trump)    +11 R    (-14D and +7 R)     Meanwhile (7% Lib, 3% Green, 4% Write-In).

So the story here is obvious.... Trump gained a huge 7% of Obama '12 voters, and then additionally there was another large chunk of voters that went 3rd Party rather than vote Republican, despite their contempt of a Democrat that was seen as complicit in the ramming through of "Free Trade" legislation that the Unions were fighting against tooth and nail all the way back in the 1990s.

Bill Clinton's answer to the Unions was the equivalent of "drop dead.... where else are you gonna go?... are you going to vote for the Republicans?"....

In places like Columbia County, Toledo, Oregon, and a ton of other paper mill factory towns in Oregon, the writing is on the wall.

As I warned back during the Democratic Primary in Oregon, Clinton was losing her WWC base and that Bernie supporters were much more than a handful of "brainwashed college kids" and the reality is that the vast majority of Bernie supporters were actually Middle-Aged WWC Democrats that have lived, worked, and have family that are closely intertwined with Republicans in small town and rural America...

Toledo is a classic example of what went massively wrong with the hubris and tone-deaf nature of the Clinton campaign. This is not a city she should have lost, let alone by 10%...

A few other cities:

Waldport: (Pop 2.0k)---- Where the Alsea River meets the Ocean.... Not a real tourist town, nor a retiree town, but is actually a pretty good barometer for Lincoln County voting...

2012: (60-37 Obama)    +23 D
2016: (52-39 Clinton)    +13 D

We could roll through a few other small communities like Depoe Bay and Yachacts, and we see some similar patterns, no gain for Trump over Romney in Depoe with major defection to 3rd Parties, and in the latter, Clinton actually improves over Obama '12 % narrowly, and Trump drops from Romney (29.5%) to (23.5%).

Meanwhile "Rural" Lincoln County still accounts for 33% of the vote in 2012 and 32.5% in '16....

2012: (56-41 Obama)    +15 D
2016:  (47-43 Clinton)    +4 D      (4% Lib, 3% Green, 3% Write-In (Bernie?)

So based upon the precinct level results it is clear that Toledo was the only place in the County where there was a major Obama/Trump swing between '12 and '16, with a minor swing in Lincoln City (Concentrated in one precinct and demographic) and additionally there was a major defection from Obama '12 voters towards 3rd Part candidates in Newport and rural Lincoln County....

Food for thought....

[Nym90]

May I reiterate that this is really interesting info.

You see a lot of similar patterns among demographics in Oregon to what you see nationally, but drilling down in such detail to city and precinct levels really allows this to be illustrated (and proved) in a way that you cannot get from exit polling.

I wonder to what degree Hillary specifically faced animus that no other Dem candidate would have among WWC/union voters due to her being the wife of the man who they felt sold them down the river so to speak.

[NOVA Green]

May I reiterate that this is really interesting info.

You see a lot of similar patterns among demographics in Oregon to what you see nationally, but drilling down in such detail to city and precinct levels really allows this to be illustrated (and proved) in a way that you cannot get from exit polling.

I wonder to what degree Hillary specifically faced animus that no other Dem candidate would have among WWC/union voters due to her being the wife of the man who they felt sold them down the river so to speak.

Thanks Nym-- very much appreciate that you and others are actually reading and following the thread, but additionally that you see it as contributing to the overall body of knowledge on the Forum.

Granted, Oregon is not and likely will not be a GE "swing-state" in the foreseeable future, but Presidential Elections by their very nature are nationalized, and swings/trends that we see in places like Oregon are replicated in many other parts of the country.... I posted something elsewhere when I first started delving into the Oregon precinct level data to see if anyone had noticed similar trends in places like ME-02 and some cities/counties in Wisconsin, where there are also a significant number of paper/pulp mills and if there were similar patterns to what I have been observing in certain communities in small town and rural Oregon, where some of the largest swings from Obama '12/ Trump '16 voters have been observed thus far in my research.

Although obviously I can't speak to detailed city/precinct level data for most other parts of the country matching US Census Block data with 2016 election results, in many parts of Oregon at least (And there was a similar phenomena in some counties in SW Washington State that has been observed in Oregon), it does seem clear that the largest collapse of Democratic Presidential support occurred in communities heavily dependent upon Timber, where Trump's message about unfair Chinese trade practices resonated within an overall context of major plant closures.... although one could certainly make a legit argument that the Koch Brothers (Georgia Pacific) were "double-breasting" at an international level (UMW term to describe shutting down union coal mines to open up non-union mines elsewhere), most of the workers down the line and union reps in unionized facilities, are essentially making the same argument that the Steel Workers and USW made back in the Mid/Late '70s in the "Rust Belt".

Now to your question, to what extent was Hillary Clinton viewed as complicit for Bill Clinton's support of NAFTA and expansion of MFN with China in the '90s?

That's a complicated subject within the context of Oregon and politics in the Pacific Northwest, since NAFTA didn't really have that much of a direct impact out here, unlike other economic sectors and regions, but it did generate a significant buzz, because a state that was overwhelmingly dependent on Timber for manufacturing jobs, exports of processed goods out of state and internationally was going through something similar in the 1980s where raw logs were being exported to Japan for processing in chip-mills rather than in mills in Oregon, where we could add value-added labor to the raw materials, and provide local mfg jobs, when the industry was just starting to recover from the Reagan Recession of the early '80s, where the Stagflation of the late '70s was dealt with by manipulating interest rates that depressed housing starts. At one point in the early 1980s the Oregon official unemployment rate was something like 13% !!!!

Now, the Timber industry is a fraction of what it was in 1980, and the Tech sector now accounts for a much higher percentage of total employment, as well as exports from Oregon to elsewhere in the US and Internationally.

Still, NAFTA did have a direct impact even within the Tech sector.... Back in the late 1990s I was working at a large Hewlett-Packard facility, and an entire building was shut down and (500) people lost their jobs, because HP decided to relocate their entire unit that would repair/replace InkJet printers under customer warranty to Mexico.... The starting wage for the repair techs working the line was $13.50/ Hr (Twice the statewide minimum wage).

Now that I no longer work for a contractor for HP after 20 years of employment for multiple suppliers, I can talk a bit more openly on an internet forum regarding how major Tech companies have "gamed the system" and taken advantage of "Free Trade" agreements to not only perform massive layoffs of Blue Collar Mfg and Repair jobs, but also used loopholes in the skilled worker Visa program to allow long-term contractors to work in their facilities in the US through business partnerships with companies in India as part of a Business Process Outsourcing (BPO arrangement) that is essentially designed to cut the MNCs overall cost structure and take advantage of corp tax loopholes while meanwhile US Citizens (Computer Programmers) are having difficulty finding jobs with HP, because entire segments of their subcontractor base are being directly hired overseas, so even if you go to the HPI or HPE website, you're not going to see most of these jobs posted.

So, if you're a WWC Blue Collar Oregonian you look at seeing decent paying factory/mfg jobs disappear, and if you are a White Collar Oregonian in the Tech sector, you have more choices and greater chance of being rehired more quickly at a decent wage, and additionally because these jobs are disproportionately concentrated in larger metro areas and there is a higher degree of education and "social liberalism" you're less likely to blame Clinton, but more likely to vote 3rd Party.

Trump in retrospect was actually somewhat brilliant, in that he was able to focus on core items of concern with WWC voters, especially the "shifting jobs overseas" argument, as well as minimizing his losses among college educated Whites that were repulsed by his "cultural warfare" arguments and various statements regarding Women, Latinos, Muslims, etc.... that are also facing similar employment threats/concerns at the hands of MNCs---- and arguably one of his best Republican Debate performances was when he was able to pivot from the "illegal immigrants taking American jobs BS" to talking in a fairly coherent fashion about the Tech Visa waver program and how the Tech Industry was gaming the system.

Would another Democrat have done better among WWC voters than Clinton, and did the Free Trade issue hurt her immensely considering Bill Clinton's promotion of NAFTA against organized labor?

Absolutely.... however I believe most voters are actually pretty sharp on core fundamentals, although most people don't have a ton of time to delve into policy nuances, and unfortunately the media doesn't really do a good job of trying to explain complex issues and boil it down to laypersons terms.

Most Americans perceive Hillary Clinton as a different person than her husband, but her Achilles Heal was the promotion of TPP (Arguably one of her signature accomplishments as SoS and the pivot to Asia under her leadership).

Regardless of the actual merits of TPP, a large majority of Americans saw it as yet another corporate sellout package, where the "system is rigged" and once again a number of American jobs will be shipped overseas, while we receive nothing in return. Her promotion of TPP reinforced the perception that Hillary C. was just another corporate shill, and allowed Trump to run as an economic populist on jobs, in an election year where the overall mood of the American public was "throw the bums out".

I do firmly believe that despite Clinton's relative personal unfavs, had she chosen to focus and emphasize repeatedly a progressive economic platform, rather than beating Trump's temperament and judgement to death, she still would likely have won some of these voters in the key precincts/cities/states that ended up deciding the election because of the swings in this demographic group.

I still believe that Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders would have easily defeated Trump in the EC, as well as the popular vote, but this was Hillary Clinton's Election to lose post-primaries, and much of the blame is on her and her senior campaign staff for not paying attention to the pulse of the electorate, especially in places like Toledo, Oregon.....

[NOVA Green]

May I reiterate that this is really interesting info.

You see a lot of similar patterns among demographics in Oregon to what you see nationally, but drilling down in such detail to city and precinct levels really allows this to be illustrated (and proved) in a way that you cannot get from exit polling.

I wonder to what degree Hillary specifically faced animus that no other Dem candidate would have among WWC/union voters due to her being the wife of the man who they felt sold them down the river so to speak.

Ok--- so the train went a bit off the tracks on the last response, when it comes to Oregon 2016 Presidential Elections Results....

So here are city level numbers that I pulled from the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary for the top  (100) cities in Oregon:

Now that SoS results are certified, here are the City level results for the Oregon Dem Primary  based upon precinct level data for the top (100) cities in the state in order of population:

I am working on updating the list, now that I have access to detailed precinct level returns for some of the counties where I didn't have results, because there are major fees and the results aren't available online....

Needless to say, there is actually a relatively strong correlation between education levels/ WWC population and 2016 Primary results, where we can observe how this plays out in many mill towns in Oregon.... 

Here's a thread where I posted a bit on this topic, but obviously anyone interested will need to skip closer to the end for posts looking at the actual certified Oregon results...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236895.0

1.) Portland- (40.1-59.9% Bernie)
2.) Eugene- (36.5-63.5% Bernie)
3.) Salem- (44.4-55.6% Bernie)
4.) Gresham- (45.1-54.9% Bernie)
5.) Hillsboro- (41.9-58.1% Bernie)
6.) Beaverton- (45.1-54.9% Bernie)
7.) Bend (43.0-57.0% Bernie)
8.) Medford (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
9.) Springfield (38.5-61.5% Bernie)
10.) Corvallis (36.5-63.5% Bernie)
11.) Albany---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
12.) Tigard- (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
13.) Lake Oswego- (57.5-42.5% Hillary)
14.) Keizer- (45.9-54.1% Bernie)
15.) Grants Pass (45.4-54.6% Bernie)
16.) McMinville (46.6-53.4% Bernie)
17.) Oregon City (43.1-56.9% Bernie)
18.) Redmond (43.2-56.8% Bernie)
19.) Tualatin (48.5-51.5% Bernie)
20.) West Linn (52.3-47.7% Hillary)
21.) Woodburn (51.8-48.2% Hillary)
22.) Newberg (40.3-59.7% Bernie)
23.) Roseburg (42.3-57.7% Bernie)
24.) Forest Grove (42.8-57.2% Bernie)
25.) Klamath Falls (40.5-59.5% Bernie)
26.) Milwaukie (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
27.) Ashland (37.9-62.1% Bernie)
28.) Wilsonville (49.3-50.7% Bernie)
29.) Sherwood (45.8-54.2% Bernie)
30.) Central Point (47.0-53.0% Bernie)
31.)  Hermistion--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
32.) Pendleton--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
33.) Coos Bay--- (44.6-55.4% Bernie)
34.) Troutdale (44.0-56.0% Bernie)
35.) Canby- (47.6-52.4% Bernie)
36.) Lebanon-  Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
37.) Dallas (48.9-51.1% Bernie)
38.) Happy Valley (51.1-48.9% Hillary)
39.) The Dalles (40.1-59.9% Bernie)
40.) La Grande (40.4-59.6% Bernie)
41.) St Helens (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
42.) Cornelius (37.1-62.9% Bernie)
43.) Gladstone (43.5-56.5% Bernie)
44.) Ontario---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
45.) Damascus (47.3-52.7% Bernie)
46.) Newport (45.7-54.3% Bernie)
47.) Baker City- Unknown. County precinct maps don't appear to match city boundaries
48.) North Bend (45.4-54.6% Bernie)
49.) Cottage Grove (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
50.) Sandy (39.9-60.1% Bernie)
51.) Monmouth (34.3-65.7% Bernie)
52.) Astoria (40.2-59.8% Bernie)
53.) Prineville---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
54.) Silverton (41.4-58.6% Bernie)
55.) Sweet Home---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
56.) Fairview (50.7-49.3 Hillary)
57.) Independence (34.8-65.2% Bernie)
58.) Eagle Point (55.9-44.1% Hillary)
59.) Florence (51.8-48.2% Hillary)
60.) Molalla (41.9-58.1% Bernie)
61.) Lincoln City--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
62.) Sutherlin (50.7-49.3% Hillary)
63.) Stayton (43.7-56.3% Bernie)
64.) Hood River (36.7-63.3% Bernie)
65.) Milton-Freewater---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
66.) Umatilla---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
67.) Scappoose- (45.6-54.4% Bernie)
68.) Seaside (46.5-53.5% Bernie)
69.) Brookings (50.8-49,2% Hillary)
70.) Sheridan (43.1-56.9% Bernie)
71.) Talent (32.6-67.4% Bernie)
72.) Madras---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
73.) Junction City (42.3-57.7% Bernie)
74.) Winston (44.6-55.4% Bernie)
75.) Creswell (38.0-62.0% Bernie)
76.) Warrenton (47.0-53.0% Bernie)
77.) Tillamook---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
78.) Philomath (35.4-64.6% Bernie)
79.) Veneta (37.1-62.9% Bernie)
80.) Phoenix (42.6-57.4% Bernie)
81.) Reedsport (49.1-50.9% Bernie)
82.) Wood Village (42.5-57.5% Bernie)
83.) Coquille (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Is city mixed in with rural areas?
85.) Aumsville- (38.8-61.2% Bernie)
86.) Harrisburg---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
87.) Toledo (41.0-59.0% Bernie)
88.) Myrtle Creek (48.8-51.2% Bernie)
89.) Mount Angel (48.2-51.8% Bernie)
90.) Nyssa----Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
91.) Boardman (51.1-48.9% Hillary)
92.) Oakridge (47.5-52.5% Bernie)
93.) Hubbard (43.5-56.5% Bernie)
94.) Dundee (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
95.) King City (61.7-38.3% Hillary)
96.) Jefferson---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
97.) Bandon (47.9-52.1% Bernie)
98.) Shady Cove (53.2-46.8% Hillary)
99.) Burns (47.9-52.1% Bernie)
100.) Jacksonville (55.9-44.1% Hillary).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hillary won some cities in Clackamas County... I wonder why.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Election Results #13- Lincoln County- Part II

So I took the liberty of pulling precinct level results from the county between 2010 and 2016 to further examine how different cities/precincts/regions voted for Federal and Statewide Elections to see if there are any interesting trends, or if the Trump performance in Toledo was an aberration or variance, and what the breakdown looks like with Federal/Statewide Elections:

Now, how to break it down am thinking is best to run by city/yr/office and look at the variance from county/state results....

1.) Newport:

2016:  Pres:          (55-35 Clinton) +20 D..... (+10 D margins over County).... (+9 D over State)
2016:  Sen:          (62-28 Wyden)  +34 D..... (+7 D Margins over County)....   (+11 D over State)
2016:  Rep-05:     (63-32 D)          +31 D.... (+ 7 D margins over County).... +21 D margins over CD)
2016: Gov:           (58-37 D)          +21 D.... (+9 D margins over county)....  ( +14 D over State)
2016: SoS:           (50-40 D)          +10 D....  (+6 D margins over county)      (+14 D over State)  

2014: Sen:           (63-30 D)        +33 D....   (+7 D over County)....       (+14 D over State)
2014 US Rep:       (67-26 D)         +41 D.....  (+8 D over County)....      (+26 D over CD)
2014: Gov:           (57-36 D)        +21 D....   (+8 D over County)....       (+15 D over State)

2012: Pres:          (62-35 D)        +27 D....   (+6 D over County)....       (+15 D over State)
2012: US Rep:      (64-31 D)       +33 D.....   (+7 D over County)...       (+21 over CD)

2010: Sen            (64-32 D)           +32 D....   (+5 D over County)....      (+9 D over State)
2010: US Rep:      (61-35 D)          +26 D....    (+4 D over County)....      (+21 D over CD)
2010: Gov:           (56-41 D)          +15 D....   (+5 D over County)....       (+8 D over State)

Ok--- so the largest city in the County Newport is a heavily Democratic County in a Democratic state that consistently both exceeds county and statewide/district numbers for Federal and State offices...

If we look at the results it appears the City is moving gradually to the Left of the County from 2010/2012 towards 2014/2016 in most elections with CD-05 numbers relatively constant compared to the district, and a dip in Republican Senate numbers between 2010/2016 challenging incumbent Dem Ron Wyden....

2.) Lincoln City

2016: Pres:      (48-41 D)   +7 D.... (-3 D over County)....   (-4 D over State)
2016: Sen:       (57-31 D)   +26 D... (-1 D over County)...   (+3 D over State)
2016: US Rep   (59-36 D)   +23 D...  (-1 D over county)....  (+13 D over CD)
2016: Gov:       (52-42 D)   +10 D.... (-2 D over County)...  (+3 D over State)
2016: SoS:       (45-43 D)   +2 D.....  (-2 D over County)...  (+6 D over State)

2014: Sen:      (57-34 D)   +23 D.... (-4 D over County)...  (+4 D over State)
2014: US Rep: (60-39 D)   +21 D...  (-11 D over County)...(+6 D over CD)
2014: Gov:      (53-40 D)   +13 D...  (-2 D over County)...  (+8 D over State)

2012: Pres:    (59-37 D)    +22 D...  (+1 D over County)...  (+10 D over State)
2012: US Rep: (61-34 D)   +27 D...  (+1 D over County)... (+15 D over CD)

2010: Sen:      (60-36 D)   +24 D...  (-3 D over County)...   (+6 D over State)
2010: US Rep: (58-38 D)   +20 D...  (-2 D over County)...  (+15 D over CD)
2010: Gov:      (53-43 D)   +10 D...  ( Even with County)    (-2 D over State)

3.) Toledo

2016: Pres:    (38-49 R)    +11 R.... (-20 D over County)... (-22 D over State)
2016: Sen:    (51-35 D)    +16 D...  (-11 D over County)... (-7 D over State)
2016: US Rep: (53-42 D)   +11 D.... (-13 D over County)... (+1 D over District)
2016: Gov:    (44-48  R)     +4 R....   (-9 D over County)....  (-11 D over State)
2016: SoS:    (39-49 R)      +10 R....  (-14 D over County)...  (-6 D over State)

2014: Sen:       (55-35 D)    +20 D...  (-6 D over County)...  (+1 D over State)
2014: Us Rep:  (56-32 D)    +24 D...  (-9 D over County).... (+9 D over CD)
2014: Gov:      (46-45 D)    +1 D....   (-14 D over County)...   (-5 D over State)

2012: Pres:      (53-42 D)    +11 D.... (-10 D over County)...     (-1 D over State)
2012: Us Rep:  (53-42 D)    +11 D...  (-16 D over County)...     (-1 D over CD)

2010: Sen:       (55-39 D)    +14 D.... (-13 D over County)...     (-12 D over State)
2010: US Rep: (54-41 D)     +13 D....  (-8 D over County)...      (+8 D over CD)
2010: Gov:       (46-49 R)     +3 R....   (-13 D over County)....    (-10 D over State)

So here we see a fairly reliable city that is much less Democratic than the County average that will occasionally narrowly back Republican candidates for Governor, but has absolutely no problem voting overwhelmingly for Liberal Democratic Senators, and even significantly exceeded Democratic support for the US Rep from CD #5 in the off-year elections of 2010/2014 and still backed the incumbent Dem in '12/'16 by +11%....

The only major variation from statewide numbers was in the 2016 Presidential Race, aside from the 2010/2016 Gubernatorial Elections, but even then the Republican candidate only won by 3-4% in Toledo, as opposed to the 11% Trump win in 2016....

[NOVA Green]

Hillary won some cities in Clackamas County... I wonder why.

Assuming you're talking about the primaries, although she definitely won a bunch more cities in Clackamas in the GE than even the primaries....

She actually won about 49% of the vote in Portland precincts located West of the Willamette River (~30% of the vote in the City of Portland).

The major swings toward Clinton between the '08 and '16 primaries were actually heavily concentrated in Metro-Portland, as well as areas with high clusters of highly educated and upper-Middle Class "knowledge workers" in places like Benton and Deschutes Counties....

But yeah, you're absolutely correct that she did well in places like Lake Oswego, West Linn, etc, and overall did much better in 2016 than she did against Obama in '08 in most parts of Metro Portland!

Meanwhile Trump essentially cratered in many such precincts in the primaries even running virtually unopposed (Cruz and Kasich had both dropped out before many of the Primary votes were cast), and many of these Republican voters did not come back home in November....

[Nym90]

The Democrat who performed best in Toledo in recent elections relative to any other Democrat was Jeff Merkley, who is from southern Oregon timber country. He actually performed slightly better there than he did statewide.

Likely not a coincidence.

Merkley for President in 2020? Seriously, he seems like a great pick on paper. He was the only Senator to endorse Sanders also, so he could be a great heir to Bernie's legacy, if we accept the reality that Bernie will no longer be able to mount a bid of his own at age 79.

Also consider how easily he won statewide in 2014 in a midterm in a very GOP year. His performance was pretty impressive considering the circumstances. He's demonstrated a real appeal to working class voters that not many other Democrats have (Sherrod Brown is another that comes to mind).

[RI]

I posted some precinct maps here.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #14: Lane County- (Pop 352k- 2015)

Lane County is the 4th most populous in the state of Oregon, and the largest outside of the "Tri-Counties" of Metro-Portland. Roughly 70% of the population lives in the largest city Eugene, the sister city of Springfield and in unincorporated areas directly adjacent to or surrounded by the cities of Eugene and Springfield.

Eugene is best known for those outside of the state/region as the home of the famous University of Oregon, as well as the extremely visible "alternative culture" communities within the City, that was a direct legacy of the political movements of the '60s/'70s.

Regardless of the stereotypes of Lane County that go back some 40 years, it is still a heavily white working-class county, both within the Eugene-Springfield Metro area, as well as a significant rural/small-town population which accounts for over 25% of the county votes.

Pres Election Results: 2000-2016:

2000: (52-41 Gore)  ---(7% Nader)               +11 D
2004: (58-40 Kerry)                                     +18 D
2008: (62-35 Obama)                                   +27 D
2012: (60-36 Obama)                                   +24 D
2016: (53-35 Clinton)                                   +18 D

Overall the Republican numbers appear consistent from '08-16, with roughly a 5% loss from '00/'04.

The Democratic numbers appear to have much more of a variance (although '00-'04 could be easily explained by the Nader effect), but regardless it appears that there was a large surge towards Obama in '08/'12, and a huge collapse in Democratic support between '12 and '16.

However, as we all know the devil is the details, and although much of the drop-off in Dem numbers from '12-'16 can be explained in voters going Green/Lib/Bernie (WIs), it doesn't actually really show where these numbers were shifting and what communities shifted in various precincts....

1.) Eugene Oregon (46% of the County Vote----

2000: (59-32 Gore)     (9% Nader)       +27 D
2004: (68-31 Kerry)                            +37 D
2008: (72-25 Obama)                          +47 D
2012: (69-26 Obama)                          +43 D
2016: (66-23 Clinton)                          +43 D

So if we look at precincts where there were the greatest margin shifts (+10 R swing '12 to '16) towards the Republicans between '12 and '16, we see an interesting mixture (Pcts 1781 and 1783 for example (Downtown/Whitaker) are heavily Left leaning, with a significant 3rd Party vote causing much of the change.... Pct 1785 is more heavily WWC and less "alternative" and went from 2012 (64-32 D) to 2016 (55-34 D). If we move out to far West Eugene, in precinct 1891 we see a similar pattern 2012- (60-34 D) to (48-37 Clinton)....

We could look at medium range precincts where Obama>Romney to Clinton>Trump margins only dropped 5-10%, we see a similar pattern in NW Eugene (Heavily blue collar WWC) and "alternative districts" where Trump only got 8-15% around inner West Eugene, which a high number of 3rd Party votes....

So overall Trump actually lost votes compared to Romney in most of Eugene, with the except of about six precincts where he gained on average 1-2%....  where he gained the most was in precinct 1781 where he added 4.3% to Romney's %.

Clinton's biggest margin improvements (>10% between '12/'16) were in relatively upper Middle-Class North Eugene where Romney bagged 40-43% of the vote in '12, and Trump collapsed to 30-34% in '16. The largest precinct in the "hood with 6k voters in 2012 was (53-43 D) and in '16 was a (55-34 D). ...

2.) Springfield (14% of the County Vote)----

Historically a blue collar sister city to Eugene, but with exception of parts of West Springfield generally lacking much of a college population, in many ways is more similar to West/NW Eugene in its demographics and voting patterns. Although it has been gradually trending Democratic from the infamous days of the Oregon Citizens Alliance (OCA) that was a splinter faction of the Oregon Republican Party in the late '80s and '90s that was way heavy on the cultural conservative ideology and tried a virtual coup of the statewide party, Springfield was Ground Zero of an attempt to pass city resolutions effectively legalizing discrimination against LGBTs back in 1990 (?).

So here in theory as a heavily Blue Collar town, we should expect to see some massive swings towards Trump, right???

2000: (50-44 Gore)      (5% Nader)      +6 D
2004: (53-45 Kerry)                            +8 D
2008: (59-39 Obama)                          +20 D
2012: (55-39 Obama)                          +16 D
2016: (47-40 Clinton)                          +13 D

Ok--- So, unlike Eugene we didn't see a drop off in Republican % numbers between '12 and '16, however we did see an 8% drop in Dem numbers from Obama '08 to Clinton '16....

Most of this drop-off are from blue-collar voters, that did not turn to Trump, but instead voted for 3rd Party candidates.

The major margin swings happened in the Whitest parts of Springfield (Between 21st and 42nd) with average household incomes of only $30-40k/Yr, and not as much in West Springfield with a higher Latino and student population (But also similar household incomes, nor in far East Springfield that is a bit more middle-class.)

Part II coming up soon, that includes rural and small town precincts....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 14- Lane County Results Part II:

So to recap, margins in Eugene stayed constant between '12 and '16, with both major party candidates experiencing a 3 % drop from their parties respective 2012 numbers, with a much higher % of the 3rd Party voters going Green or Bernie Write-Ins than Libertarian....

Trump actually improved over Romney's numbers in a handful of precincts, concentrated in heavily WWC with more "Blue Collar" occupations a smaller proportion of 4 year college graduates in outer West and NW Eugene.

This gain was offset, but a huge collapse of Republican numbers between '12 and '16 in more Upper-Middle Class precincts in North Eugene.

Interestingly enough, this was traditionally in recent years the only real part of the City where Republicans were competitive in Presidential Elections:

George W. Bush actually won four out of the six old precincts here and only narrowly lost this area of 19k voters by 3%. Trump lost the same area by over 20%....

This part of the City alone accounts for a large chunk of the Republican vote share in Eugene that used to range from 31-32% to the 25-26% of the Obama elections, and 23% in the Trump Election...

It also raises the larger question is if these types of voters will return to the Republican fold, after they started to swing heavily Democratic in 2008 after almost half the voters two-timing for George W, and not only maintained Obama '12 margins, but further swung even harder Democratic in '16?

Springfield appears to be a case of a "pox on both their houses" with a huge number of voters backing him in 2008 (59%), and in 2012 (55%), with Clinton losing 8% of the votes, with no real gain for the Republican candidate between McCain and Trump, in a city where in theory demographics should have caused a significant bump in Republican support. However, it is also a city where Bernie Sanders significantly outperformed statewide numbers beating Clinton 62-38....

So where did the 13.2% of Springfield voters that went 3rd Party go?

5.6% Libertarian, 4.5% Write-Ins, 3.1% Green....

This is the highest percentage of Write-In voters in the county, and one of the highest % of Libertarian Voters in the county, with the Greens slightly under-performing, although if you were to remove the Green vote from Eugene, the Greens actually performed better than average.

So if we look into a little more detail, we see Precinct 2234, which is the only precinct in Springfield with a decent number of U of O students because of its proximity to campus, and the only precinct in Springfield where Clinton won over 50% of the vote (58-28 Clinton) almost 5% of the voters wrote in Bernie Sanders, and although the lowest % of Libertarian support, Johnson still scored 4.6% and Stein had the best showing in all of Springfield at 4.4%.

If we look at precinct 2122 that has a large Latino population, as well as a large WWC population and young families gravitated by the relatively cheap apartment prices and access to major commuter highways, we see a significant drop in Democratic Party numbers between '12 and '16 (7%), but also a 2% drop in Republican numbers. Both Bernie (4.6%) and the Libertarian (6.3%) did quite well, and Stein still managed to bag 3.4%.

Now if we look at Central-Eastern Springfield which is where there were the biggest swings towards Trump between '12 and '16, we see the only precinct that Trump won within the cities of Eugene & Springfield.

Precinct 2562 went from 2012 (53-41 Obama) to 2016 (43-44 Trump) with 6% voting Lib (highest % of any precinct of numbers in Springfield) and 4% Write-In (Bernie).

If we look back at this part of Springfield, it went narrowly for Gore by around 3%, Kerry by 2%, and then shifted into a +16% Obama in '08.

This is definitely a key barometer to watch if one looks at swings in many small towns and rural parts of Lane County, and throughout similar communities in Oregon and the Pacific NW at large, as well as potential implications following 2020 redistricting if we start to see similar areas reject not just the Democratic Presidential candidate, but turn against their local Dem House Rep as well (which we saw to some extent in Coos and Josephine Counties where Trump appeared to have an impact on Democratic margins in key areas).

3.) Unincorporated areas of Eugene-Springfield

Next largest voting block in Lane County accounting for roughly 8% of the '16 total county vote.

These are overwhelmingly concentrated in the North Eugene areas of Santa Clara and River Road, with a few small sprinkles of votes in small pockets in Springfield.

Uninc Eugene: (6.3% of '16 county votes)

2012: (61-34 Obama)    +27 D
2016: (54-34 Clinton)    +20 D

Uninc Springfield (1.5% of '16 county votes)

2012: (57-38 Obama)    +19 D
2016: (49-40 Clinton)    +9 D

So again, huge warning signs for the Democrats. The predominately working and middle-class of this important "swing region" appear to have rejected Clinton, while generally not embracing Trump.

This is also close/home to some of the major saw mills of Eugene-Springfield Metro, where there are still many voters that embrace a New Deal economic policy, Federal restrictions on unfair trade practices, not huge fans of overseas wars, but when they happen we rally around and close it out the right way, nobody cares too much about the Politics of God, Gays, Guns, and Weed....

Clinton won the battle decisively for these voters, in that they did not shift towards Trump, but as I have repeatedly stressed before on this thread and others, is that there is a heavy ancestral New Deal Democratic DNA deeply entrenched within the union timber/paper mill workers of the Pacific Northwest....

In the case of Santa Clara it was only marginally Democratic in 2000 (+2% Gore) and swung heavily Democratic with Obama and hasn't really looked back.

River Road was a (59-32 Gore)   +27 D back in 2000, went (67-31 Kerry) in '04 +36 D, (71-26 Obama) in '08 +45 D, (79-18 Obama) in '12 +61 D, and (66-21 Clinton) in '16 for +43 D !!!!

Santa Clara has more people and is a bit more Republican traditionally than River Road (~46% Rep in 2000), swung narrowly towards Kerry in '04 (+6%), went Obama +20 in '08, Obama actually expanded his margins in 2012, and then the floor drops out in 2016....

Precinct 728 voted (65-30 Obama) in '12 and was only a (56-32 Clinton) win in '16.

So if we roll through the maps, it appears clear that there is a clear belt that runs NNW along State Highway 99W, and the historic and current concentrations of timber mills (sawmills) in areas that narrowly backed Kerry and Gore over George W., swung massively towards Obama in both '08/'12, shifted narrowly towards Trump, but most significantly with a drop-off towards 3rd Parties. We see a similar pattern in a few precincts in West Eugene and Central Springfield, although these are more likely to be building trade/construction/Install and Repair Techs than Mill workers.

So, wanted to do a slightly deeper dive into Eugene-Springfield before shifting to rural and small-town lane in Part III.   (I promise people---- just felt like my previous didn't give enough context to Eugene-Springfield).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #14- Lane County Part III

So now that we have covered the Eugene-Springfield Metro area in greater detail, it's time to take a look at the rest of Lane county, which accounted for slightly over 30% of the total county vote, or about 60k total votes, basically more than any individual county, excepting the three main counties of Metro-Portland, Marion County (Salem-Keizer), Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond), and Jackson County (Medford-Ashland).

So, not only would rural and small-town Lane County rank as having the highest number of voters outside of the major population centers, it also ranks #6 in the state in terms of total land area.

The county is one of only two that stretches all the way from the Pacific Ocean in the West to the higher mountains of the Cascade Mountain range, and includes a mix of small Coastal tourist communities, the Coastal Mountain range, agricultural and mill towns in the flat portions of the Willamette Valley, up to the foothills of the Cascade Mountains along the McKenzie River, and heavily remote and rural National Forest lands through large swathes of Eastern Lane County.

Over 88% of the land area is timber land, both privately and publicly owned.

1.) Rural Lane County--- (22.3k Voters--- 2016)---- 22.3% of the County Vote:

2000:  (42-51 Rep)    ( 5% Nader)     +9 R
2004:  (47-51 Rep)                           +4 R
2008:  (50-47 Dem)                          +3 D
2012:  (47-49 Rep)                            +2 R
2016:  (40-50 Rep)                            +10 R

So looking at these numbers, it appears that there is a sizeable and significant rural Democratic Vote in Lane County (47-50% from 2000 to 2012 if we add Nader to the Dem column in 2000).... Republican numbers have been fairly consistent, averaging about 50%, with a visible dip in 2008 when he was able to shift 3% of George W '04 voters into his column with minimal 3rd Party voting.

It does appear that there were some Obama '12/Trump '16 cross-over votes, but difficult to see how many because of the large % that 3rd Party candidates received, of which the lion's share of the Democratic defection between '12 and '16 likely went to Democratic candidates versus the Republican defection of '12/'16 where there were a smaller number of voters that went Libertarian or wrote in McMullen or Romney for example, as well as some likely cross-overs in a few areas of Romney '12/Clinton '16 voters.

So, if we start looking at individual precincts, where to we see the greatest swing towards the Republican GE candidate Trump between 2012 and 2016?

Exhibit A: Precinct 754: Rural Marcola with 1.1k voters went from (51-44 Dem) in 2012 to (38-50 Rep) in 2016, for a 19% swing! So it's pretty obvious that at minimum 6% of the total Obama '12 voters went for Trump in '16.

If we drop further back in time this precinct went (48-45 D) in 2000, (50-48 D) in 2004, and (52-46 D) in 2008....

So we are talking about a consistently Democratic rural precinct, that actually had a drop-off in Republican support between '08/'12, where at least 2-3% of voters decided to universally reject Clinton after having voted for Gore/Kerry/Obama (2x) and voting for Trump....

So what happened?

Did Courtney Love (Who raised in a commune out here) decide to endorse Trump?

This is a precinct that is a bit older, overwhelmingly White, and generally has a significantly higher than average household income for rural Lane County....

Honestly, I don't really know what's going on here, but Marcola was an historic major timber producing area in the county from the early settlements through the '80s, but starting in the '90s there was a major increase in both population and people commuting to work, predominately Springfield.

Now, I do believe that Trump's visit to Oregon back in May, which was widely covered in local Media, particularly in Southern Oregon, likely played a factor in some of the major swings we have seen in cities/counties/regions of the state still heavily dependent on the Timber Industry, or hoping he will fulfill his promise to bring Timber jobs back to Oregon, likely played a roll in some of the precinct/city/county results that we have seen thus far, and I have commented in detail on in discussion of various counties returns.

http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/34974711-75/story.csp

2nd biggest swings in rural Lane was in Pct 752 (14%), which is a rural area in SE Lane County, also Timber country, but a bit more Republican historically and we see it shift from (43-52 Rep) in 2012 to (34-56 Rep) in 2016....

We see similar patterns, although to a lesser extent in other heavily rural parts of the East County historically dependent upon timber.

Exhibit B: Oregon Coastal/Mountain Rural Precincts

So basically these are regions where in recent years have a Democratic tilt, and essentially cover rural uninc areas of Lane County along the Oregon Coast and run through the Oregon Coast Mountain Range, and into the Western foothills of those Mountains....

This area is best defined as the mixture of "rural hippie/redneck" Oregon hybrid that I have mentioned in some of my previous posts and in some ways is a bit of a mix between places like Kings Valley/ Summit in Benton County and the more rugged Cave Junction area in Josephine County.

It includes the '12/'16 precincts of 702,704,706,708, and 710 and although it has a historic timber background and includes part of the Siuslaw National Forest, is no longer a major source of public timber harvesting, and in fact marijuana cultivation likely surpassed Timber as the largest agricultural product.

Clinton not only managed to lose all five of these precincts, all of whom back Obama in 2012, but additionally there was an average 10% margin swing between '12 and '16, for some of her largest total margin losses anywhere in rural Lane, outside of the two precincts referenced above.

Although Trump didn't manage to crack 50% in any of these five, he was still able to beat Clinton by roughly 6% of the vote, with roughly 48-42 margins.... by comparison Obama captured over 50% of the vote in all but one precinct (Walton) where still managed to bag 49% for a +3 win over Romney.

If we drop back further in time, in '08 Obama won Blachly +16, Siuslaw +7, Mapleton +13....

Kerry won Blachly and Mapleton by +7 and narrowly lost Siuslaw by <1%....

If we roll back to 2000, it looks like George W Bush actually did quite well at here....

I'm starting to see a pattern in certain parts of rural and small town Oregon, where Trump managed to bring back elements of the Bush 2000 coalition, even in Democratic leaning areas....

Ok--- don't want to exceed the 11,000 character limit on a post and have to chop into two parts, so will follow up with the 10% of county voters that live in small towns/cities outside of Metro and not "rural areas"....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #14- Lane County Part IV

So, the last section in the Lane County installment is focused on the small towns and cities, accounting for 10% of the county voters, and also where Trump experienced his greatest improvements between 2012 and 2016.

The common thread in the narrative, is the story of rural small-town Americana, and communities that have experienced major economic decline since the 1970s, and Trump's economic populist message resonated particularly well, and although Obama is still relatively popular personally, Hillary Clinton is no Obama, and her messaging and presidential campaign did little to reach out to rural and small-town voters that are still hoping for better times around the corner....

1.) Cottage Grove---- (Pop 9.7k- 2010)

2000: (45-49 Rep)      (4% Nader)    +4 R
2004: (45-52 Rep)                            +7 R
2008: (50-46 Dem)                           +4 D
2012: (51-46 Dem)                           +5 D
2016: (39-49 Rep)                            +10 R

+15% Swing '12 to '16 !!!

Is an historic mill town, not far over the Lane County line, that at one point housed over 20 mills within the City, where the old saying went "Douglas County harvests the logs, and Lane County mills the logs".

At one point there were over 20 mills in Cottage Grove, and although that history is mostly gone, the occupations are still heavily dominated by transportation, facilities, repair, construction, as well as lower paying jobs in personal care and food service.

The Median household income is now only $34.3k/Yr with a 6.8% unemployment rate, and a fairly high rate of individuals in poverty.

Only 22% of the population has a post High School degree, and 50% of those are Associates degrees....

Here's an article that helps provide some additional context into the dramatic shifts that this town has experienced over the past few decades.

http://jkagroup.com/methods/willamette/chapter27.htm

2.) Florence--- (Pop 8.5k)

Is a nice small Coastal Oregon town that was historically built around the fishing, canning, and timber industry, and as those industries faded away, is now dominated by tourism and retirement, with the Casino in town being the main "anchor" and subsidiary jobs in the food and accommodation industries providing downstream employment, as well as 14% employed in the health care industry to provide for the needs of an aging population.

2000: (49-46 Dem)    (4% Nader)        +3 D
2004: (51-47 Dem)                             +4 D
2008: (53-44 Dem)                             +9 D
2012: (50-46 Dem)                             +4 D
2016: (45-46 Rep)                               +1 R

So..... not really looking like a lot of Obama'12/Trump'16 cross-over votes, since that ship already sailed a bit between '08/'12, but still it's pretty clear that in a town that is fairly old on average, 4-5% of the Democratic vote in 2000 and 2004 disappeared from Clinton '16 numbers, without any major corresponding gain for Trump.

My suspicion is that there was a 1-3% of Rep dropoff of Romney '12 voters that went 3rd Party or Clinton, and a corresponding counterbalance of Obama'12 voters towards Trump.

3.)  Junction City--- (Pop 5.4k--- 2010)

A former railroad town settled by Scandinavians, and then later a small mill town and a center of local agricultural services, it became the center of the "RV Capitol of the World" which was Lane County Oregon....

There were 4.5k RV related jobs, heavily tied to manufacturing, assembly, and repair and when Country Couch shut down at the height of the Great Recession (1.3k jobs tied directly to the cities economy) it hit particularly hard. Although Winnebago bought out County Couch, there are only a fraction of the jobs remaining in JC, with some production lines relocated to Coburg.

Always a Republican city in a Democratic county, the swing towards Obama faded fast by '12, and completely collapsed with Clinton at the helm and Trump running on his "making America great again" platform/slogan.

2000: (41-54 Rep)    (4% Nader)    +13 R
2004: (42-56 Rep)                         +14 R
2008: (47-50 Rep)                          +3 R
2012: (42-52 Rep)                         +10 R
2016: (33-55 Rep)                         +22 R

Needless to say, many in Junction City did not feel that they had experienced the results of the stimulus package between '08/'12. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2020 if jobs don't come back to Junction City....

Here's an interesting article about the RV industry and JC...

http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/34948887-75/winnebago-ramps-up-production-of-rvs-adds-jobs-in-junction-city.html.csp#

4.) Oakridge--- (Pop 3.2k---2010)

Historically town built around the railroads and the city and nearby area was home to two large mills that processed old-growth timber from the surrounding region for decades....

By 1985 both mills were mostly closed down, and the Pope and Talbot mill was mothballed in '92....

2000: (49-46 D)     (4% Nader)    +3 D
2004: (50-47 D)                           +3 D
2008: (55-41 D)                           +14 D
2012: (50-42 D)                           + 8 D
2016: (39-48 R)                           + 9 R

Clearly a major deal---- 17% swing to Trump in a heavily WWC mill town that used to vote Democratic even after the whole spotted owl / timber wars scene from the late '80s/early '90s.

A few interesting articles that talk about the the changing culture of mill towns and the decline of the industry, the first a more general story, and the second about Oakridge...

http://www.andykerr.net/growing-up-in-timber-country/

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129186583


So, again we are seeing a pattern that I have observed in other parts of Oregon, areas heavily focused on logging had generally already started to move Republican by the 1990s, and communities more focused on mill jobs in *most regions* had tended to stay Democratic, with the exceptions of parts of Southern Oregon.

2016 seems to have been a bit of a game changer, in that even in many of the remaining mill towns, or those with close historical affinity, in the Mid-Valley and Oregon Coast appear to have shifted away from the Democratic Presidential candidate significantly....

Now, the key question is will that pattern hold in 2020, in many of these communities that are more than happy to support Liberal Oregon Democrats for US House and US Senate races?

[Nym90]

A point to consider:

Statewide turnout in Oregon was up significantly from 2012, after having declined in 2012 from 2008 and having declined in 2008 from 2004 (the last one was a bit of a surprise to me as turnout nationally was up...perhaps the fact that Oregon was no longer a targeted swing state like it was in 2000 and 2004 hurt turnout).

So even though Trump's percentage of the vote statewide was the lowest of any Republican since Bob Dole (and only barely better than Dole by three hundreds of a percent), he did get more total votes than Romney or McCain did.

Likewise for Clinton, despite having the lowest percentage of the vote for any Dem candidate since Gore in 2000, she received more total votes than Obama in 2012, second in state history only to Obama in 2008.

I bring this up because I wonder how it would impact your analysis. I wonder if turnout levels in these small mill towns that swung so heavily Republican was higher than it has been in the past (indicating that there were a lot of previously non voters coming out for Trump) or whether it was more stable and thus really was a collapse in the Democratic vote as the percentages indicate.