For right now Florida is still right of center but there are reasons to believe Dems can make it the opposite. The 2000-2012 trend toward the GOP was mostly from GOP gains in northern FL (and a few old people who voted Gore in Palm Beach) but now they are mostly maxed out here.
The electorate was 67% white in 2012 but the Census had the population at 57% white. Unlike Texas, FL doesnt have that many ineligible to vote immigrants b/c Cubans and Puerto Ricans. If FL is 64% white and whites vote for Hillary like they did for Kerry (42%) of vote, the Dems are looking at a 7-9% victory.
The real lesson is that the GOP needs to make gains with Hispanics or else Florida could slip away long-term. Obama definitely underperformed in these counties and still won: Volusia, Flagler, Palm Beach. Of course Rubio could likely improve with Hispanics here (as could Christie). The wrong candidate could easily turn FL into an easy Hillary victory.
This article described it well:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanicsFlorida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.
A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.
I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.
2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3
There's hardly any movement to speak of.
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