Where do the states fall?

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Safe GOP          Solid GOP        Likely GOP         Leans GOP         Barely GOP

Utah                 Alabama         South Carolina    Montana            Virginia
Wyoming          Kansas            Georgia             Tennessee          Florida
Idaho               Kentucky         Arizona              Indiana
Oklahoma         South Dakota                           Missouri
Nebraska          Texas                                      North Carolina
Alaska              Mississippi
North Dakota    Louisiana
                       Arkansas
                       West Virginia


Safe Dem         Solid Dem         Likely Dem       Leans Dem               Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland          Washington      Maine                       New Mexico
Hawaii              California          New Jersey      Michigan                   Nevada
Rhode Island    Connecticut                              Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                                 Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                                     Pennsylvania
New York                                                        Wisconsin  
                                                                      Iowa
                                                                      New Hampshire

                                               Toss Up
 
                                                 Ohio
                                               Colorado

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Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      Kentucky                 West Virginia          Montana                Virginia
Wyoming               South Dakota           Louisiana                Indiana                 Florida
Idaho                    Texas                      South Carolina        Georgia                 Ohio
Oklahoma              Arkansas                 Tennessee              North Carolina
Nebraska               Mississippi               Arizona                   Missouri
Alaska
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                    Maryland              Delaware                 Oregon                 New Mexico          
Hawaii                 Connecticut          Illinois                     Michigan               New Hampshire
Rhode Island        California             New Jersey              Minnesota             Wisconsin
Vermont                                         Maine                      Pennsylvania         Iowa
Massachusetts                                 Washington
New York


                                                        Toss Up

                                                      Colorado 9
                                                       Nevada 6

What elections are we basing this off of? and should I do 5 categories of each party like you do?

Yes you can do 5 categories. Some people do 3 or 4 for each party. I based it off of the averages for the 4 most recent elections in combination with some of the more noticeable trends.

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In Maps:

>90% = Safe
>70% = Solid
>50% = Likely
>40% = Lean
>30% = Barely

2008-2012 Averages:

2000-2012 Averages:

2012 Ratings:

Hopefully you can see the difference between >40% and >50%.

Outstanding work!

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My take:



Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      South Dakota        South Carolina        Arizona                   Florida
Idaho                    Texas                     Montana                 Georgia                  North Carolina
Wyoming               Tennessee             Missouri                  Indiana
North Dakota        Kentucky                Alaska
Nebraska              Louisiana               Arkansas
Kansas                 West Virginia
Oklahoma             Mississippi
Alabama


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                     California            Delaware                 Minnesota            Nevada
Hawaii                 Connecticut        New Mexico              Pennsylvania       New Hampshire
Vermont              Washington        Illinois                      Iowa                    Wisconsin
Maryland             New Jersey         Maine                       Michigan
Massachusetts                               Oregon                   
New York
Rhode Island
                                                        Toss Up

                                                         Virginia
                                                           Ohio
                                                        Colorado


This is for 2012-2013. I imagine by 2016 Virginia will be Barely Dem and North Carolina will be Toss-Up. Georgia and Texas might have moved a bit more towards the middle by then as well.

I like your lists.

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Safe GOP          Solid GOP        Likely GOP         Leans GOP         Barely GOP

Utah                 Alabama         South Carolina    Montana            Virginia
Wyoming          Kansas            Georgia             Tennessee          Florida
Idaho               Kentucky         Arizona              Indiana
Oklahoma         South Dakota                           Missouri
Nebraska          Texas                                      North Carolina
Alaska              Mississippi
North Dakota    Louisiana
                       Arkansas
                       West Virginia


Safe Dem         Solid Dem         Likely Dem       Leans Dem               Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland          Washington      Maine                       New Mexico
Hawaii              California          New Jersey      Michigan                   Nevada
Rhode Island    Connecticut                              Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                                 Minnesota
Massachusetts                                                 Pennsylvania
New York                                                        Wisconsin   
                                                                      Iowa
                                                                      New Hampshire

                                               Toss Up
 
                                                 Ohio
                                               Colorado

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Is my coloring distinct enough?

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I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

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I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

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Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.
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I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.

2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3

There's hardly any movement to speak of.

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  For right now Florida is still right of center but there are reasons to believe Dems can make it the opposite. The 2000-2012 trend toward the GOP was mostly from GOP gains in northern FL (and a few old people who voted Gore in Palm Beach) but now they are mostly maxed out here.
The electorate was 67% white in 2012 but the Census had the population at 57% white. Unlike Texas, FL doesnt have that many ineligible to vote immigrants b/c Cubans and Puerto Ricans. If FL is 64% white and whites vote for Hillary like they did for Kerry (42%) of vote, the Dems are looking at a 7-9% victory.
   The real lesson is that the GOP needs to make gains with Hispanics or else Florida could slip away long-term. Obama definitely underperformed in these counties and still won: Volusia, Flagler, Palm Beach. Of course Rubio could likely improve with Hispanics here (as could Christie). The wrong candidate could easily turn FL into an easy Hillary victory.

This article described it well: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.

I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.

2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3

There's hardly any movement to speak of.

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I'm not arguing Clinton could win at all. If Florida were going that way soon though we would've seen Obama winning by more. In another decade what you're saying is possible, but only time will tell.

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Ohio is not a tossup if Virginia leans GOP. Obama won VA by more than OH in both 2008 and 2012.

Things are shaping up that way.

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I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

I love it...

Barfag's next post: "Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years."

As much as I love to highlight barfbag's stupidity, he was actually just attempting to quote cope1989's post, but failed...

My stupidity?

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I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

I love it...

Barfag's next post: "Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years."

As much as I love to highlight barfbag's stupidity, he was actually just attempting to quote cope1989's post, but failed...

My stupidity?

Come on bro, I was defending you. Gotta cut your losses man.

Oh I'm sorry I misunderstood. But yes it depends on how someone defines same. All that's really the same is their slight tilt to the right for federal elections. Thanks for defending me.

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I can literally do very simple math to determine Florida's PVI in each election since 1964 (almost 50 years) to prove it has moved a lot

1964: -18
1968: -9 (just Nixon vs Humphrey)
1972: -21
1976: +3
1980: -7
1984: -12
1988: -15
1992: -7
1996: -3
2000: -0.5
2004: -3
2008: -4
2012: -3

Maybe it has remained stable since 2000 but dramatic shifts can happen here- like 72 to 76 or 88 to 92

It's pretty much stayed the same since 1996 and the elections of 72, 80, 84, and 88 were so one sided, I don't know how they could be indicative. Carter's victory in 1976 taints Florida too due to his southern base. This provides no useful information between 1968 and 1992, but we can see Florida still as light red in 1992. Actually, 1968 was tainted by Wallace's performance in Florida. Now we're back to 1964 when Goldwater's only successful region was the south so there we go again. This takes us back to 1960 when Florida was 3 points to the right of the nation. You know what, 1960 and 2012 both have Florida at 3 points right of center with no useful information between 1960 and 1992. Hurricane Andrew helped Bush in Florida in 1992 but we can use it for our information still. All in all, Florida has been anywhere from 2 to 7 points to the right in all useful elections since 1960.

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I can literally do very simple math to determine Florida's PVI in each election since 1964 (almost 50 years) to prove it has moved a lot

1964: -18
1968: -9 (just Nixon vs Humphrey)
1972: -21
1976: +3
1980: -7
1984: -12
1988: -15
1992: -7
1996: -3
2000: -0.5
2004: -3
2008: -4
2012: -3

Maybe it has remained stable since 2000 but dramatic shifts can happen here- like 72 to 76 or 88 to 92

It's pretty much stayed the same since 1996 and the elections of 72, 80, 84, and 88 were so one sided, I don't know how they could be indicative. Carter's victory in 1976 taints Florida too due to his southern base. This provides no useful information between 1968 and 1992, but we can see Florida still as light red in 1992. Actually, 1968 was tainted by Wallace's performance in Florida. Now we're back to 1964 when Goldwater's only successful region was the south so there we go again. This takes us back to 1960 when Florida was 3 points to the right of the nation. You know what, 1960 and 2012 both have Florida at 3 points right of center with no useful information between 1960 and 1992. Hurricane Andrew helped Bush in Florida in 1992 but we can use it for our information still. All in all, Florida has been anywhere from 2 to 7 points to the right in all useful elections since 1960.

And I raise you that like Georgia, Florida is pretty much staying the same. However, this thread is meant for discussing which categories states should be listed in. I have another thread for the Georgia trend myth.

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Florida is pretty much staying the same.

The political balance has stayed the same, but the make up of each electorate is changing quite a lot.  The state has several major sources of potential instability - increasing minority/decreasing white electorate, immigration from other states, and finally the factor of the dying off of each successive generation of olds and their replacement by the next. 

I would argue that the status we observe in the statistics above in fact represents a masking of the rapid increase in the minority (D) electorate by the die off of a relatively Democratic generation of elders (the 'Greatest Generation') and their replacement by a relatively R generation of elders (the 'Silent Generation'). 

The next step is the continued growth and likely continued D-trend of the Hispanics and other minorities, coupled with a die off of the Silent Generation.  I think Florida will be the state to watch in 2016 and 2020, because a rapid shift due to these factors is quite possible, and obviously curtains for the Republicans if it were to happen.

Yes I think it will be at least a decade if we see any shift in Florida. The state's demographics have been changing for 50 years though and will likely continue.

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Click on reply and then evc in the middle at the top of the reply page. It should take you to the map. Once you've filled in the states how you want them to be, click on show map link. Copy and paste after back spacing to the reply page.

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Looking at the 2012 exit polls, Obama did as well with young voters in Florida as he did anywhere, better than even the midwest.

Yes but how long will young voters vote Democrat? Will it be for their whole lives?

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Re: Where do the states fall?

RED: Republican (139)
LIGHT RED: Lean Republican (52)
YELLOW: Bellwether/Battleground/Competitive (84)
LIGHT BLUE: Lean Democratic (21)
BLUE: Democratic (242)

Those with "Leans" may become flipped by the opposing party's prevailing candidate if a national margin of victory were to be strong enough to pull in ones with such opposing tilt. In an election won the party with that tilt…the state will carry.

This map is partly assuming that both parties will continue their stupid "competitive" campaigns of only focusing on perceived "battlegrounds." Since after the 1980s, the most states won a given presidential election were the 32 carried with first election, in 1992, by Bill Clinton.

Note: On the prevailing side, since the 1990s, Republicans have averaged 9 electoral votes (for George W. Bush) with all states carried; Democrats have averaged 11 (Clinton) and 13 and 12 (Barack Obama) electoral votes with all states carried. On the losing side, Republicans averaged 9 (George Bush), 8 (Bob Dole and Mitt Romney), and 7 (John McCain) electoral votes with all states carried; Democrats averaged 13 electoral votes (Al Gore and John Kerry) with all states carried.

Oh I think Pennsylvania will surprise a lot of people in the next decade and move to the right. It might become the new Virginia as in where Virginia was before.

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Florida is pretty much staying the same.

The political balance has stayed the same, but the make up of each electorate is changing quite a lot.  The state has several major sources of potential instability - increasing minority/decreasing white electorate, immigration from other states, and finally the factor of the dying off of each successive generation of olds and their replacement by the next. 

I would argue that the status we observe in the statistics above in fact represents a masking of the rapid increase in the minority (D) electorate by the die off of a relatively Democratic generation of elders (the 'Greatest Generation') and their replacement by a relatively R generation of elders (the 'Silent Generation'). 

The next step is the continued growth and likely continued D-trend of the Hispanics and other minorities, coupled with a die off of the Silent Generation.  I think Florida will be the state to watch in 2016 and 2020, because a rapid shift due to these factors is quite possible, and obviously curtains for the Republicans if it were to happen.

Yes I think it will be at least a decade if we see any shift in Florida. The state's demographics have been changing for 50 years though and will likely continue.

You didn't bother to comment upon my actual point, which is that there are two trends at work - an ever-increasing D-minority vote, with a fluctuating D/R/D elder vote, as each generation of retirees dies off and is replaced.  My point is simply that if we did have a rapid die off of D-leaning olds (Greatest Generation), and their replacement over the last decade by R-leaning olds (silent Generation), this has only kept the state even, as the underlying trend is Minority-D.  As soon as the generation of elders replacing the Silent generation's die-off swings D (if it does), the state could begin to move sharply and rapidly D.  I suppose some careful polling of the elderly would be in order to discover predictive signs of this hopeful thought.

I know what you're saying and it's true in theory, but young people move to Florida too after college or when starting their careers because of the state's comfortable climate appeal.

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but the state is changing

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Thanks I like it.

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Yes Indiana will become light red again. ^

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I was more getting at the recent elections rather than polling or trends. There will come a day when these categories don't apply to some of the states anymore. However, there's nothing better to analyze than real votes.

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the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

So PA is further to the left than MS is to the right?