Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[mileslunn]

Only two hours until polls close.  My thinking is this is the Tories to lose so I would be shocked if the Tories don't hold this, but there is a slight outside chance of a Liberal pickup, but unlikely and if they win it would be a huge boon for the Liberals and massive embarrassment for the Tories.  Rather looking at the numbers here is how I would interpret results by party

Conservatives

Over 60% is a very good night.  Federally in 2011 and provincially in 2018, the Tories got over this

50-60% a good showing, but nothing too unusual, that is usually what they get around

Under 50% This is one of the few ridings where Tories usually get over 50% so anything under 50% even if they win is a bad night.  Even in the 2014 provincial election and 2004 federal they cracked the 50% mark despite poor showings overall.  They did fall below in 2015 federally however, but that was not a good showing either.

Liberals


Over 40% - Excellent showing even if they fall short as in the last quarter century, they've only done this twice (1993 and 2015) and both were solid majorities


30-40% - Very good showing, almost anytime the Liberals have gotten over 30%, they've gone on to form government


20-30% - Okay as this seems to be their default but not great


Under 20% - Bad night, usually if they get under 20% they do poorly overall, provincial 2018 and federal 2008 and 2011.


NDP

Over 20% - Outstanding showing, even 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they were unable to crack the 20% mark.

10-20% - Average to good showing

Under 10% - Lousy showing but considering the NDP's polling numbers now, wouldn't be surprised if they get under 10%.

Too bad the PPC wasn't able to put up a candidate as this might be the first look at whether they are gaining any traction thus risk of vote splitting or as Nanos suggests nowhere.

[mileslunn]

So far Tories doing not too bad, it will be interesting to see if they get over or under 60%.  While Liberals well behind, they are over the 30% mark so from a historical perspective that is actually fairly good for this riding and bodes well for them overall.  NDP is doing horrible down in low single digits.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8

Comparing to the provincial results, Tories a bit below but not too far off.  NDP significantly lower, Greens slightly lower, while Liberals a lot higher mind you Trudeau has decent approval numbers in Ontario while Wynne was extremely unpopular.  Still this is a fairly safe Tory riding, the last time another party has won here against a united right was 1988 federally although in 1993 the Liberals would have held this even if you combined the PCs + Reform Party, but in 1997 and 2000 they won on a split right.  Provincially I am not sure this has gone anything but Tory as even during the Grossman disaster in 1987, they held this.

[mileslunn]

I would say CAQ are the favourites as they were competitive in surrounding ridings and still in their honeymoon phase. PLQ did horrible in all surrounding ridings and won only because it was the riding of the premier. Too rural and not enough younger voters for QS but wouldn't be surprised if their vote share increases. Traditionally a PQ stronghold but with how weak a state the PQ is in don't see them winning this.

[mileslunn]

Not a huge surprise.  Considering this riding is over 95% Francophone it was more of a Philippe Couillard than PLQ riding.  Too rural to go QS, while PQ could be competitive if they were doing better in the polls, but in many ways they appear to be dying a slow death thus not a factor, so makes a lot of sense to see this flip to the CAQ.

[mileslunn]

Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1080540046871138304

My guess based on the riding's history and what's at stake is it stays NDP, although would make politics very interesting if the BC Liberals did win it.  They would mean the speaker would have to be breaking a lot of ties.  Also BC Liberals might try to convince Plecas to rejoin the party if he resigns as speaker as this would allow the government to fall.  Although actually I think the BC Liberals have better odds if they wait until 2021 then going now.  Their past 16 year stint in power is too fresh in too many people's minds and NDP hasn't been in power long enough to really screw up.  Likewise with the past scandal and bad relations between Plecas and the BC Liberals, I think the only way the government falls is if both the BC Liberals win Nanaimo and Plecas resigns (Abbotsford South is a safe BC Liberal riding).

[mileslunn]

Looks like federally we will have four by-elections before the next election as any vacancy after January 20, 2019 will be left empty.  So for the final ones here are my thoughts.

Burnaby South: Looking to be a close race between NDP and Liberals.  NDP has the advantage of it being the leader and the Greens not running a candidate (although those supporters could also go Liberal too, although won't go Tory) and its one of the few ridings where more oppose than support the pipeline.  Also some Blue Liberals and Red Tories might swing over to the Tories so boosting the Tories although not enough to win, although hurting the Liberals.  For the Liberals, they are ahead in BC while NDP not doing so well, Trudeau is still reasonably popular in BC, especially the Lower Mainland, and Singh has been quite lackluster as leader.  There is a very long chance of a Tory win but would require a perfect three way split and the Tories doing better than expected.  If the Greens had put up the candidate, the Tories would have much better odds although still not favoured, but better chance as all Green votes will come from the Liberals and NDP not the Tories.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith: NDP heavily favoured, but Greens did well on the south part of the Island so if the NDP does lose this, which I don't think they will, Greens would be favoured.  Liberals have never been very strong here so if they win here, they are looking at 30+ seats in BC.  Tories have some support, but need strong splits as well as while they may do better than 2015, they are still a ways away from returning to 2011 levels which they would need to have a realistic shot here.

Outremont: Most likely a Liberal pickup and probably not even close.  Singh's poor performance in Quebec won't help, only silver lining is this is a fairly progressive riding although provincially it went PLQ not QS.  BQ has never been a factor here not even during the height of the sponsorship scandal and Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back.

York-Simcoe: Fairly safe Tory riding so would be a huge shock if they don't win here.  Probably in the top 10 most conservative ridings in Ontario, so if they cannot win here they are in big trouble.  Liberals are very unlikely to win here, but if they can stay above 30% that is good news for them overall.  Usually when they get over 30% here they form government, in the 20s opposition and in teens fall to third.  NDP has never been a factor here.  PPC won't win, but this might be the first clue on how much impact they will have in terms of vote splitting.  Theoretically this is a riding the Liberals could win with strong vote splits on the right like you saw in the 90s, but the PPC is a long ways away from having the support the Reform Party did. 

Going by parties:

Liberals: Outremont is pretty much a shoo-in so one pick up.  Good shot in Burnaby South so two pick ups.  Nanaimo-Ladysmith and York-Simcoe are extremely unlikely to go Liberal, a win in either suggest a super majority, similar to Tories in 1984 and 1958.

Conservatives: York-Simcoe is fairly safe, so hold what they have, but gaining anything will be tough.  Burnaby South and Nanaimo-Ladysmith are possibilities but really long shots although if the Tories were going to get a majority you would expect them to be competitive (not necessarily win, they didn't in 2011) in those two.  Don't stand a chance in Outremont.

NDP: They are trying to hang onto three and holding all three is unlikely.  Outremont they are likely to lose, Burnaby South is in danger but somewhat better odds of holding, while Nanaimo-Ladysmith is the only one I would say they are still heavily favoured in.  York-Simcoe don't stand a chance.

Other Parties: BQ no chance in Outremont.  Greens only possible in Nanaimo-Ladysmith but unlikely.  PPC zero chance in any although slight chance they deny the Tories a win in one, but even that highly unlikely.

[mileslunn]

My guesses:

Burnaby South: Going to be a tight one, but if I had to guess, I would guess the Liberals, but wouldn't be surprised if the NDP wins this.  Tories should put up a decent showing as they have a solid base here, but not enough to win.  Somewhere between 25-35% for Tories.

Outremont: Should be an easy Liberal pickup, the question is more margin.  If under 10 points, then good news for NDP in Quebec in that they can minimize their losses, if over 20 points sign of a possible shutout in Quebec.

York-Simcoe: Tories will off course win this, but thresholds to watch are, When Liberals get over 30% here they usually win, if in the 20s opposition, and if in teens third place.  For Tories, under 50% usually means loss, in the 50s minority government of some type, while over 60% a Tory majority.  My guess is Tories get in the 50s, but Liberals get in the 30s due to weakness of NDP.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1086647950481154050

A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.

As someone for disclosure who worked on his campaign in 2005, he usually outperformed predictions.  BC Liberals own internal polls in 2005 predicted he would lose by five points, but he narrowly squeaked off a win.  The big reason is he has really strong ties with the Chinese community and turnout tends to be low in that group but he is very good at getting them out to the polls.  Only risk is if a lot of the Chinese community goes Conservative as they have of recent been trending towards the Conservatives federally, but they almost never go NDP, at least not the immigrant ones (NDP provincially did make strong gains amongst this group, but I think that was more from their children who were born in Canada and likely vote the same way millennials do in general).

As for being a BC Liberal, that is a mixed bag.  It might hurt amongst some progressives as a significant chunk of the federal Liberal vote in BC loathes the provincial Liberals, but at the same time might help amongst some on the fence.  A lot of fiscally conservative types are disappointed with Trudeau and may be tempted to go Tory so having someone from the BC Liberals re-assures that group the Liberals are still fiscally responsible, not tax and spend types.

[mileslunn]

Nanaimo: Mainstreet has Grits leading Dippers 43/35.

While I am bit skeptical the BC Liberals will do this well, I certainly think a BC Liberal win is definitely within the realm of possibility despite normally being a safe NDP riding.  Generally by-elections have low turnouts and often those upset with the government in power are more motivated to show up.

[mileslunn]

A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.

Isn't the part of Nanaimo not in the riding mostly in Nanaimo-North Cowichan which is even more solidly NDP?  I think Parksville-Qualicum only includes a very tiny portion of the city.  Now its possible their polls were too heavily from the northern half of the riding as I think the north side of the city is more favourable to the BC Liberals than the south side so that could definitely skew it.  Anyways I tend to trust their results for provincial and federal as they have a good track record, but for municipal and ridings view with skepticism.  After all last BC election, they showed BC Liberals winning Saanich North & the Islands, Cowichan Valley, and Surrey-Fleetwood and none of those were that close.