Which swing state will be the first to be called?

[ursulahx]

Not a poll, a genuine question from someone who has rarely been able to sit up through the night and watch the results come in (though I did for '08 - history was being made, after all).

Which will be the first state to give a clear indication of how the candidates are actually doing? Obviously the New England states will declare early, but New Hampshire is the only state Trump might have a decent chance in - though I suppose if he takes ME-02 that'll tell us something (but not much).

Which declares first - Pennsylvania or Virginia?

[MK]

Virginia for Grandma fairly early.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

If not for VA's rural bias in early returns, I'd have to go with it, but given that early VA results are rarely that informative, I'll say PA.

[pbrower2a]

Republican votes come out later in Pennsylvania; Democratic votes come out later in Virginia. That's all that you need to know.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Hampshire or Maine. VA/GA/OH/NC all have noticeable counting biases that will hold them up for hours.

[MasterJedi]

New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will be called quickly for Clinton. Virginia will take longer due to how the votes come in.

[ursulahx]

Basically, Pennsylvania (given that New Hampshire is only 4 EVs) is the point at which I can relax, assuming it's called for Clinton.

(Yes, I know Trump can win without PA, but it's highly implausible.)

[Xing]

Probably PA, but depending on how you define "swing state," one of the Upper Midwestern states could be called first.

[Roronoa D. Law]

NH because its' polls close early and has small population. Logic!

[pppolitics]

You also have to consider the time the polls close.

[ursulahx]

I'm assuming ME and NH will give us a guide as to how things are likely to progress, and PA (or another upper midwest state) will confirm the trend. Which could mean I could go to bed as early as 1 or 2am British time. But I won't, whatever happens.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

== 9:00 EST ==
1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania
== 9:30 EST ==
3. Virginia
4. New Hampshire
== 10:00 EST ==
5. North Carolina
== 10:30 EST ==
6. Wisconsin
== 11:00 EST ==
7. Colorado
== 11:30 EST ==
8. Iowa
== Midnight or later ==
Ohio, Florida, Nevada