The Polls thread...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Times/Populus tracker:

Labour: 41 (n/c)
Tory: 27 (-2)
LibDem: 23 (+2)
Oth: 9 (n/c)

Notes:

1. Tracking polls like this are only supposed to measure momentum... Populus will apparently do a final poll tomorrow. Having said that, dropping 6 points over the course of the campaign probably *isn't* the sort of news Howard wanted to hear...

2. For the reasons indicated in the article below, trying a uniform swing probably wouldn't be advisable.

3. No party has ever won power from a position of 27% in the polls.

I'd kill to see the Republican party at 27%.  The sad thing is the Republicans at 51% are far more wingnuty than the Tories at 27%. I'll bet that creationists aren't in the majority in the UK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harris poll:

Certain to vote: Lab 38, Con 34, LD 22
All: Lab 38, Con 32, LD 23

Labour voters almost as likely to be certain to vote as Tories

[minionofmidas]

New Times/Populus tracker:

Labour: 41 (n/c)
Tory: 27 (-2)
LibDem: 23 (+2)
Oth: 9 (n/c)

ing sh**t. Don't you be messing with my head. Don't you make me revive my hopes for LD 2nd place in the PV.

[WMS]

New Times/Populus tracker:

Labour: 41 (n/c)
Tory: 27 (-2)
LibDem: 23 (+2)
Oth: 9 (n/c)

g sh**t. Don't you be messing with my head. Don't you make me revive my hopes for LD 2nd place in the PV.

Ah, but if the Euro elections (under a different system) are any indication, the LD's could conceivably place 4th, after UKIP.
Not very likely of course, but I just had to tweak your nose about that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Populus's final poll (a proper 'un not a tracker) will give Labour a lead of about 7pts.
A lot of other polls expected tomorrow; most will probably go something like 37/32/22.

Labour have leaked a poll of Bethnal Green & Bow to the Evening Standard: King 30%, Tory 25%, Galloway 16%, LD 10%. Whether it's accurate or not is debatable. It should be noted that King has been using the slogan "Vote Respect, Get a Tory"...

Oh and certain people in Labour HQ have apparently been amusing themselves by claiming (amongst other things) that analysis of postal votes show a Labour majority of under 50, that Labour interal polls show a Tory lead of 1pt and other stuff they either don't know or is flat out implausible

[Democratic Hawk]

Harris poll:

Certain to vote: Lab 38, Con 34, LD 22
All: Lab 38, Con 32, LD 23

Labour voters almost as likely to be certain to vote as Tories

Aye, turnout could make the difference between a slim win (or God forbid a hung parliament) and a landslide. I'm mobilised!

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Labour is obviously going to still control parliament. Vote your conscience.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No actual details on the last polls (bah) but from what I hear; YouGov, ICM and Populus all agree within the MoE, while NOP is better for the Tories. All polls show a Labour lead above the MoE.

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour is obviously going to still control parliament. Vote your conscience.

Don't worry, I am!  My conscience is clear and for a 'hawk', I do have one

I'm voting for the party, who best serves the many rather than the few. I'd vote Lib Dem - but only to defeat a Tory!

Dave

[Banana Republic]

Labour is obviously going to still control parliament. Vote your conscience.

I pity the person whose conscience tells them to vote Lib Dem.

[Democratic Hawk]

No actual details on the last polls (bah) but from what I hear; YouGov, ICM and Populus all agree within the MoE, while NOP is better for the Tories. All polls show a Labour lead above the MoE.

With Labour leading consistently, there are, indeed, grounds for optimism. I'm sure the pollsters don't want a repeat of 1992! Still, if the leads in single digits, it cautions against complacency

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Final Polls

ICM/Guardian: Lab 38/Con 32/LD 22/Oth 8
NOP/Indie: Lab 36/Con 34/LD 23/Oth 9
Populus/Times: Lab 38/Con 32/LD 21/Oth 9
YG/Daily Torygraph: Lab 37/Con 32/LD 24/Oth 7

Some breakdown stuff from Populus:

*Tories are doing badly with women voters. Apparently this is a backlash against the "Blair Lier" campaign.

*Tories doing well in suburban London/SE

*Labour doing very well in Northern England

*LibDems doing well in Scotland and there's also been a sudden surge towards them in the South West.

*Class polarisation much more obvious than expected at start of campaign; Labour have collapsed with AB voters since the start of the campaign, but surged with the various C groups since the start.

*Age polarisation also notable; Tories on 40% with over 55's, but as low as 27% with younger voters.

[Frodo]

*Class polarisation much more obvious than expected at start of campaign; Labour have collapsed with AB voters since the start of the campaign, but surged with the various C groups since the start.

since i'm not particularly well-versed in British politics, could you explain what are 'AB voters' and 'C voters'? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

what are 'AB voters' and 'C voters'? 

AB=Proffesional/Mangerial voters.
C1/C2=lower middle class/skilled working class voters

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Further poking around the Populus poll shows that undecideds are breaking away from the Tories;

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[WMS]

Further poking around the Populus poll shows that undecideds are breaking away from the Tories;

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Gee, why does that sound familiar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the exit polls are right, the pollsters got it about right

[Democratic Hawk]

If the exit polls are right, the pollsters got it about right

NOP of all pollsters

Dave