Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[DavidB.]

Won't respond to the absolutely disgusting and unacceptable stuff Laki posted above, but I also don't want the subsequent post to seem as if anyone can just gloss over it - I wanted to mention this explicitly.

But back to the topic at hand and more importantly: Flemish social democrat leader Conner Rousseau has resigned over his comments on Roma people. Unclear what their future looks like, as Rousseau's style had been successful in winning over voters initially.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1725578557278077288

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1725819130505269753

I think she could be a stayer.

Very talented, esp. strong in communication. Very logical choice, as being partially with Rousseau the brain behind the renewed socialist movement, but she's much less of a "media attention whore" reputation that Rousseau had. She was more the person who debated and had media appearances explaining policy and so on. Still young, also a woman, family from impoverished labourers background (with no political background) and from a more rural area. She's also using that background to her advantage, like saying that unlike others she knows what people care about and what the issues of the day are.

When this will quiet down in the media, i don't think this will end up losing votes. In fact, some have even hypothesized that the whole controversy might have won votes back from people who would simply have agreed with those disgusting remarks.

She always defended Conner Rousseau even more, calls him a friend, says he has done something wrong and has apologized for it, but also criticizes the media witch hunt against her party. Not saying it in many words often, very to the point.

She values her privacy and protects her private life, which is a very big contrast with Connor Rousseau who wanted to use "his party image" and image of being active on social media. He also had a political background with her mother being very active and influential within the party. That's not the case with the current chairwoman, who also gets unanimously support and will be the candidate moving on for the elections (because she both embodies the recipe for success for the party, as well as the process of renewal).

She said that Conner Rousseau (if it was up to her) can remain as a candidate for his constituency.

She also has said before that the cordon sanitaire was a dumb idea. But re-iterated that her party would never cooperate with Vlaams Belang (far right).

If you ask me, definitely an upgrade.

[Zinneke]

De Wever is touting a bid to enter the Walloon électoral market with the N-VA....not sure of he's doing this because like VB did he can get extra money from the government for running in more districts, or because he's simply in need of some cheap headlines.

Another bizarre silly season before elections development: Les Engagés and CD&V will run joint fédéral lists in Brussels despite arguably being the most distant parties since their split. In Brussels though we can bet it will be just good old fashion communitarianism.

[wnwnwn]

[size=14.6667pt]In June 2024, this european country will have another federal elections, when disputes between multiple parties to gain seats on each province of one of the two 'lenguage fronts' (Flanders and Wallonia/Brussels) will detwrminate the composition of the House of Representatives. Before thinking about coallitions, most parties will focus on its campaing in their front. The exception is the Workers' Party (PTV/PVDA), which competes in both french and dutch/flemish speaking areas. This left wing party positions itseft clearly on the left of both the socialdemocrats and green parties as the The Left – GUE/NGL (the european group of DieLinke and LFI) member party in Belgium.[/size]

[size=14.6667pt]Accoding yo recent polls, this party is expected to win 19 seats, an increase of 7 over the 2019 elections. These same  polls expect a lost of 4 seats by the green parties and the fall of the conservative-liberal Open Vld party. They also see the flemish nationalist and ECR member N-VA losing ground to flemish nationalist and I&D member VB.

The Flemish seats accoding to that poll would distribute as:
VB 25 (+7)
N-VA 21 (-4)
Vooruit 11 (+2)
CD&V 10 (-2)
Groen 7 (-1)
WP 6 (+3)
Open Vld 5 (-7)

It seems that in Flanders, both the nationalist right and the left benefit from a polarization that hurts the center right.

Vooruit (the flemish soc-dem party) has released an ad attacking the nationalist right:
[/size]

The Worker's Party still hasn't released ads, but they film videos agaisnt the governing coalition (which includes Vooruit, Groen, the flemish center right parties and the french speking socdem, green and lib-con parties).

The ECR and I&D right seem to not be much popular in Wallonia despite of its relative success in Flanders and neightbor countries. The leading party of this type (right wing populist for some, nationalist right for some, far right for the rest) in the region is Chez Nous, which seems to be a I&D type of party. As one would expect, this party is open on its opposition of inmigration and islam. By now, this party wouldn't be getting any seat, but that could maybe change in the near future.

[DavidB.]

Hello OP, please fix the font/codes of your post For Belgian politics and elections we already have this thread. Perhaps the mods can merge your post with the existing thread.

Based on previous iterations on the same theme I don't expect Chez Nous to get in, but who knows - the right-wing anti-immigration wave arrived to Spain and Portugal, at some point it will come to Wallonia too.

[wnwnwn]

Hello OP, please fix the font/codes of your post For Belgian politics and elections we already have this thread. Perhaps the mods can merge your post with the existing thread.

Based on previous iterations on the same theme I don't expect Chez Nous to get in, but who knows - the right-wing anti-immigration wave arrived to Spain and Portugal, at some point it will come to Wallonia too.

It would be fine

[Zinneke]

The Belgian political parties are gearing up for the campaign by announcing their heads of list and various recruitment of “civil society actors”, usually to obfuscate the terrible nature of the political class detailed above. Les Engagés are as usual the key promoters of this phenomenon, they've already recruited the former head of the Federation of Belgian Enterprises and the CEO of parapharmaceutical distributor Medi-Markt alongside other randos who have a nice scarf and ideal son-in-law personality.

The PS generated controversy within their own ranks at the Brussels regional level by presenting a list that was decided by the “politburo” of the Brussels leading barons in a brasserie that currently control the party - namely Rudi Vervoort and Ahmed Laaouej, the latter of whom who will lead the PS regional list and has set his sights on a similar smooth transition we've come to expect from the PS in Brussels (shame I don't get any ballet broadcasts when this happens). However, This stitch up caused consternation from Rachid Madrane, an Etterbeek political heavyweight, and Julien Uyttendael, the step-son of Laurette Onkelinkx and son of a prominent Brussels progressive lawyer. While Madrane decried the lack of democratic process and allowing PS members the vote, Uyttendael has left the Brussels PS for the Walloon branch because he emphasizes the Capital city branch has become increasingly “communitarian” in its rhetoric and fails to defend the separation of church and state by trying to court the Muslim vote. 

In a similar move ECOLO went with co-leader Rajae Maouane as Regional list leader in Brussels despite her terrible media performances and Zakia Khattabi as federal list leader

The biggest controversy is now at MR though, although anybody who has been following the last few years is acutely aware of how shameless the “baron politics” and “presidentialisation” of the party leader and his sponsor the Michel clan in the party has become. Their own politburo via Great Leader Bouchez (who posts his book alongside a biography of Sarkozy and a biography of Napoleon) announced that Charles Michel will be resigning his EU Council presidency gig early and be parachuted as European election list-leader for the MR. Cue rightful accusations that Michel is not honoring his commitments and instead prioritizing his career. Equally pissed off by this development is EU Commissioner Didier Reynders, who wanted the head of European list for similar reasons (there is virtually zero chance an MR politician gets a senior EU gig for a long while). Instead Reynders is now gunning for the Council of Europe top job.


Meanwhile, the federal Vivaldi government continues to be in a state of paralysis : many top civil service spots (that in Belgium are of course often political appointments done via horse trading practices within the sitting federal government rather than based on merit, go figure) are not being filled because the horse trading continues to be particularly difficult with Franck Vandenbrouck of Vooruit accused of engaging in blackmail over certain policies he wants implemented in exchange for his approval of candidates. Alexander De Croo is really the main political victim of the dysfunction of the Vivaldi : his party, which is now his own little plaything, is in danger of not reaching the threshold in two to three Flemish provinces, and polling at 7% in what would be a historic defeat.

[Zinneke]

Chez Nous will be lucky to get a seat. It still wouldn't surprise me given the amount of astroturphing coming from the US and Russia desperate to convince normies that far right politics is cool and edgy and that these people aren't foreign state sponsored assets, but Chez Nous is still a bona fide neo-fascist organization at grassroots level and the political successor of the Belgian FN, with the Holocaust denial included in the ticket. Any kind of media exposure would be actually disastrous for them, whereas with a genuinely well run Right-WIng Populist organisation would benefit from the Cordon Sanitaire rules being relaxed.

There's much more chance that GLB splits from the MR if he underperforms and the more centrist wing oust him and the feckless Michels, then sets up his "conservative-populist" party.

[DavidB.]

Very distasteful to accuse a Jewish poster of supposedly supporting some sort of Holocaust denial - and that in relation to a party of which I know literally nothing and have only commented that I don't expect them to get in. You know nothing about my family history and the Holocaust, so think before you comment. Let's also remember this is coming from someone who attacked a far-left Israeli on October 7 for supporting his country defending itself. What's it with Belgians on this forum and their problems with Jews?

Also nice job derailing the thread.

[Zinneke]

Very distasteful to accuse a Jewish poster of supposedly supporting some sort of Holocaust denial - and that in relation to a party of which I know literally nothing and have only commented that I don't expect them to get in. You know nothing about my family history and the Holocaust, so think before you comment. Let's also remember this is coming from someone who attacked a far-left Israeli on October 7 for supporting his country defending itself. What's it with Belgians on this forum and their problems with Jews?

Also nice job derailing the thread.

Which far left Israeli did I criticise on October 7th? I criticised one poster who wanted an immediate retaliation of exterminating the entire population of Gaza, I then also said that Israel had a right to intervene in Gaza.

You have a consistent record of supporting any random right-wing populist party and trying to, in Mean Girls parlance "make it happen" just so your team, as if it were a soccer match, scores an extra goal. You seem to disregard all the dog whistles of the neo-Nazis and assorted anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists and instead cheerlead what amounts to a foreign capture of EU countries by these so called patriots, many of whom (including Wilders, who in fairness isn't a neo-Nazi) are funded to the hilt by foreign governments.

[DavidB.]

We could have a long discussion about my politics and about the differences and similarities between various right-wing populist parties, and why I support some but not others, but this thread isn't for that. I am merely taking note of the fact that your comment regarding the Holocaust is unacceptable and also has no ground in anything I said regarding Chez Nous before (literally anywhere, ever), which means it was also you causing this thread derailment - and which is why I hope mods will delete this entire string of comments and edit out the personal attack from your original comment.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I don't really think Chez Nous will have a (major) breaktrough. After all, Wallonia has often tried it and failed over & over again in establishing a far right anti-immigration party. To me, the above posts seem rather wishful thinking.

It's possible that over time (and even likely) they'll have success but that takes time. N-VA and Flemish Interest though (the flemish counterparts) aren't popular due to separatism and IIRC N-VA even might split vote some of the right-wing vote by introducing lists theirselves, as they've announced.

Thierry Baudet also indictaed he would introduce a list for the European election, which is also clearly going nowhere given he talked about "greater Netherlands". Definitely very appealing for Brussels and Wallonia. And even the Flemish as he shows no understanding of the differences between Flanders and Netherlands, and they clearly are major and do exist.

[Zinneke]

Michel Claise will be number 3 on Defi's federal list. He is the prosecutor who uncovered Qatarigate then was forced to step down because his son was running a CBD marijuana business with the son of Marie Arena, an MEP implicated in it. Classic Défi tone deafness.

Also, Fabien Maingain, son of Olivier Maingain, will be high up on the Brussels regional list. His first remarks? "Who your father is shouldn't determine your place in society". Lol.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Jackson Hinkle and thousands of twitter accounts have spread we have joined. That's fake news. It's not true.

However, we seem to be more inclined on joining South Africa than not, but "liberals" are kingmaker in the vote.

Pressure is increasing within the federal government to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel. The greens, socialists and CD&V want our country to take “the risk of genocide” seriously, but the liberals are holding back.

The Greens, Socialists and CD&V want Belgium to join the genocide case that South Africa is bringing against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. South Africa accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

“Belgium cannot continue to monitor what is happening in Gaza. That is increasingly looking like genocide," says Petra De Sutter, Green Deputy Prime Minister in the federal government, in a video on Instagram. “That is why I want our country, like South Africa, to go to the International Court of Justice for an investigation.” A few hours later, Ecolo Deputy Prime Minister Georges Gilkinet sent a similar message to the world.

Minister of Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez (Vooruit) is also increasing the pressure. “Support for the South African genocide case should be on the Belgian and European agenda,” she writes on X. Not only most progressive parties in the government, but also CD&V think so. “This conflict is extremely charged. It is therefore very important to judge based on facts,” says MP Els Van Hoof (CD&V). “As an independent body, the International Court of Justice is best placed to investigate the risk of genocide.”

They all refer to the international Genocide Convention. It states that every country has an obligation to take action if there is a risk of genocide. That risk is currently real, according to the various Vivaldi parties. “Food, medicine and other supplies to Gaza are being blocked,” says Groen.

Vooruit points out that there have already been more than 23,000 victims on the Palestinian side. “Mainly women and children,” the party says. “A sanitary catastrophe is unfolding and there is a threat of famine. Gaza has simply become uninhabitable. Two million people are in mortal danger and need to be saved.”

Although five of the seven parties urge action, things will not progress that quickly. The liberals are holding off. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) did not even put the proposal on the core agenda on Wednesday afternoon. He points out that Hadja Lahbib (MR), the responsible Minister of Foreign Affairs, is on a trade mission in Shanghai. “The discussion is for next week,” it sounds. Because De Croo is also on a mission to China in the coming days.

The fact that there is no consensus within the government on the matter also plays a role, of course. MR in particular, the government's most pro-Israeli party, is putting the brakes on. In liberal circles it is also pointed out that no other European country is currently considering joining South Africa's genocide case at the International Court of Justice. “It would not be smart for Belgium to step on the accelerator, especially now that our country is the European chairman,” he said. “The EU's position in the war between Israel and Gaza is already a delicate exercise.”

Moreover, the ruling of the International Court of Justice may take some time. Groen therefore calls for provisional measures, such as a humanitarian ceasefire. Vooruit supports that question. In addition, the Socialists want to use the Belgian presidency to take the initiative in this matter at European level. “The violent Israeli settlers must stop their attacks on Palestinians and have a visa ban.

These will be important points of the Belgian presidency,” Caroline Gennez said in an interview with Knack. There, the Minister of Development Cooperation also strongly criticized Germany's attitude in the conflict. “The crucial question for our German friends is: are you really going to be on the wrong side of history twice,” she said. A statement that has caused quite a stir. But what the démarche of the progressive parties in the government and CD&V above all shows is that the government remains divided regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

How much every party spends on social media ads (facebook)

In dutch-speaking Belgium, the far right spends the most followed by the conservative party (N-VA) and the marxists (PVDA).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far left (PTB) spends the most, followed by center/center-left Les engagés and MR (conservative-liberal).

Vooruit introduced legislation attempting to ban political ads on social media, while the Greens call for a cap on spending.

[Zinneke]

A Vlaams Belang elected official got caught spying for China btw. One wonders how well the TikTok algorithm works in their favour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its so often these far rightists who claim to love their country more than anybody else, isn't it.

Funny that.

[Zinneke]

Its so often these far rightists who claim to love their country more than anybody else, isn't it.

Funny that.

It's because far right parties and ideology are so morally bankrupt and overt about putting individuals above community that they attract the most brazen grifters even by political class standards.

If the far right end up as hegemonic in Europe we'll go back to being a continent that is controlled by 3-4 capital cities located several thousand miles away.

[wnwnwn]

How much every party spends on social media ads (facebook)

In dutch-speaking Belgium, the far right spends the most followed by the conservative party (N-VA) and the marxists (PVDA).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far left (PTB) spends the most, followed by center/center-left Les engagés and MR (conservative-liberal).

Vooruit introduced legislation attempting to ban political ads on social media, while the Greens call for a cap on spending.

Is Worker's Party spending a lot or it only seems that way because other parties have not fully started their campaings yet?

[Zinneke]

How much every party spends on social media ads (facebook)

In dutch-speaking Belgium, the far right spends the most followed by the conservative party (N-VA) and the marxists (PVDA).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far left (PTB) spends the most, followed by center/center-left Les engagés and MR (conservative-liberal).

Vooruit introduced legislation attempting to ban political ads on social media, while the Greens call for a cap on spending.

Is Worker's Party spending a lot or it only seems that way because other parties have not fully started their campaings yet?

I think it's more that other parties still have campaign managers who are several steps behind in terms of media saviness than VB and PTB/PVDA. They also often have their (increasingly pointless) German style party think tanks to fund, and other such traditional ways of campaigning.

[Zinneke]

Another PS "princeling" found to be dealing drugs, this time cocaine : son of Fadila Lalaan (the woman who managed to create a massive black hole in the budget of Brussels' waste management agency), who works in the cabinet of prominent PS figure and Education Minister Caroline Desir. This comes after Marie Arena's son's house was searched and they found 250k in cash. Incredible that these nepobabies feel they need a side income. But then also, peak Belgium.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

18 to 22 year olds in Flanders

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Most loved politician between 18 and 22



And most hated one

[Umengus]

In woluwe St Pierre (42 000 people, one of 19 municipalities of Brussels, very rich), the actual mayor (centrist-conservative) will do a join list with the "liberal" (center right) opposition. And so Ecolo (and defi) will not be in the majority anymore.


Not the first lose for ecolo... Elections will not be good for them.

[Zinneke]

Yes, they will for sure lose mayoral scarves and majority participation in East and South Brussels...also because the PS, their natural coalition partner, are focusing on the North and West now.

Not necessarily good for the city though, because while Good move can be criticised the pro-car agenda of MR is terrible and the Region will still likely have a progressive majority while communes turn blue, causing the usual tit for tat mess.