The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Tayya]

The aforementioned new Centre Party policy changes are opposed by several local party heads and chances are it will be revised to some extent or maybe even trashed altogether. Every party except the Left Party is having a congress next year; the Centre Congress might be the most interesting one. The leftist tabloid Aftonbladet has its resign-bazooka (that has already targeted possible prostitute solicitor and former Minister of Employment Sven-Otto Littorin and the one and only Håkan Juholt among others) set on Centre Party leader Annie Lööf, a rising star who turned out to be somewhat of a flop, and they'll probably unleash everything they've got.

If a party which has very little presence in Stockholm City (around 1% according to the latest Government Bureau of Statistics megapoll) assigns its Stockholm Municipality Councilman, who I know best for wanting more skyscrapers in Stockholm, the head of their policy commission then the party kind of deserves it.

[Tayya]

The aforementioned new Centre Party policy changes are opposed by several local party heads and chances are it will be revised to some extent or maybe even trashed altogether. Every party except the Left Party is having a congress next year; the Centre Congress might be the most interesting one.

It will be bloody, I can tell you that.

Welcome to the forum btw. Might I ask where you stand politically?

Generally center-left, at times radical and at times semi-fascist depending on my mood. And thanks.

[Tayya]

Thanks for the welcomes. For the record, I lack a partisan identification and prefer to analyze than bring my own opinions.

What happens during 2013 and early 2014 will affect a potential Social Democratic-led government. I don't even know if they could get supply and confidence from the Left Party without being a part of the government anymore. Whether the results, it would probably be very much of a lame duck on most issues.

[Tayya]

Centre Party Deputy Chairman and Caucus Leader in the Riksdag says to Aftonbladet that the party leadership will not adopt several of the controversial changes. Less controversial counter-proposals have been written. It's basically dead in the water.

[Tayya]

We got our first poll after the Centre Party debacle today, interestingly enough showing a slight but noticable increase by 1.6% for the Centre Party - the paper's focusing on a 0.4% increase for the Sweden Democrats, though, which is just embarrassing in so many ways for Expressen.

The Greens drop 1%, but foremostly the Moderates drop 3%. Either it's ultraliberals shifting honestly or it's people showing their support for the shift. We need more polls to conclude anything.

[Tayya]

There's nothing wrong with having a libertarian/classical liberal party as part for a right wing alliance- it should be the Liberal Folkparty, not the Centre Party.

More or less, but yes, a lot of the party's base is not exactly at home with libertarianism.

I did the Political Compass for our party leaders. Does this seem correct?

[Tayya]

Abrahamsson was at my school just recently, debating gender equality issues against Jonas Sjöstedt. I may not agree with her on many issues, but she has some independence, which is sorely needed in the Riksdag, especially in the Moderates. But she might go to jail. (http://www.thelocal.se/46990/20130328/#.UVh_rjf7CDo) (Or not - it's a stunt, but for a decent cause)

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for, if Borg doesn't want it. The other female ministers as well (Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd and to a lesser extent Gunilla Carlsson). Personally, I hope for Tobias Billström, if nothing else to see the socially libertarians of the Centre and Liberal Youth Leagues here in Stockholm go insane.

[Tayya]

Oh Lord, I'd forgotten about that gaffe. For the record, Kinberg Batra went to school with my former history teacher in Danderyd (Sweden's own Chelsea, ridiculously rich and Moderate-voting) and is married to famous comedian David Batra (who could see his career being boosted, but also potentially destroyed). Normally, that would be good news for the Centre Party, but right now the rural voters might go to the Christian Democrats instead. Or the Sweden Democrats. Crud. A few would switch to the Social Democrats too, of course.

Actually, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats have bizarrely thin benches. I think I can name more potential party leaders from the Centre Party than each of them. The Moderate really only have Borg and Kinberg Batra, and maybe Engström, Carlsson and Elmsäter-Svärd. All other candidates are too weak or too controversial. And the Social Democrats are just eternally bad at finding talent, they're used to coronations, but that has kind of not been possible since the freaking 80's due to cinemas, chocolate, NK and chocolate/mediocrity/red-green röra, respectively. Marbury, get your party to grow up. I want to see primaries happen.

For the record, Mrs. Schyman visited us as well. There are advantages to being a large, prestigious school in Stockholm, I guess. I want to question that we're bourgeois elitists, though - if nothing else, there are exceptions. But yes, the Social Democratic base would be the rural working class, while the bourgeois latte liberals in the cities vote Green, Liberal or Feminist Initiative (not that many do, but even fewer outside the cities do)

[Tayya]

The opposition blew a far bigger lead last time, though, and I expect them to do it again. Let's not kid ourselves, the core Moderate voters can save both C and KD as long as they stay above 2.5% or so.

[Tayya]

It doesn't help that Löfven can't stick his head out too much, as the Social Democrats is very much a big tent, and the many years in opposition have made that tent quite fragile.

[Tayya]

I realized yesterday that my school's student union has more members under 25 than the Centre Party Youth has in the entire country.

Cross-posted from AH.com:
Morning paper Dagens Nyheter ran through practically all potential governments after the 2014 elections, which I have reprinted in English here. Note that the author assumes that the Sweden Democrats will not be accepted into a government. I have added the situation where this could prove false. My notes are in bold.

An important thing to note: previously, a government only needed that a majority of MPs wouldn't vote "no" to be able to be formed. Due to an overhaul of the constitution, a majority of MPs now need to vote "yes" to a government, which is quite a change.

Left-Wing Governments
Ranked by probability

Social Democrats+Greens
PM: Stefan Löfven
For: The most probable government alternative. The parties are close to each other. Mona Sahlin's first-hand alternative before the 2010 election is strengthened by the Greens demanding to be represented in a government in order to vote yes to Löfven as PM.
Against: The two parties have never collaborated in government before. There are suspicions towards the Greens within the Social Democrats, fearing tough negotiations.
What would Jonas Sjöstedt and the Left Party say?

Social Democrats
PM: Stefan Löfven
For: The Social Democrats' preferred alternative (duh). The party has a long tradition of ruling the country by itself, and the electorate is used to the Social Democrats governing through cooperating with different parties.
Against: The poll numbers are far too low. The Social Democrats need to get back over 40% to make a one-party government likely.
Would the Greens support this? If not, who else?

Social Democrats+Greens+Left
PM: Stefan Löfven
For: The former red-green coalition that campaigned together in 2010 would have a majority, according to the polls, which would create political stability.
Against: The Social Democrats are scarred by 2010, where urban swing voters turned away from them. The thought of the Left Party in the government might scare them again.
The media's Stockholm bias might be showing here, as I believe that the Greens might scare away quite a few rural voters. Quite a few Social Democrats want the Left Party in a coalition, which we got to know in 2010.

Right-Wing Governments
Ranked by probability

Moderates+Liberals+Centre+Christian Democrats
PM: Fredrik Reinfeldt
For: The main right-wing alternative, for the third time in a row. Will be re-elected if all parties clear the 4%-threshold and the four parties have a majority.
Against: Even if all four parties make it, they will likely not have a majority and will have to negotiate with the 3rd biggest party - the Greens or Sweden Democrats.
The Sweden Democrats supporting the government would cause interesting reactions in the media and polls. Chinese version.

Moderates+Liberals+Centre
PM: Fredrik Reinfeldt
For: Possible minority government if the Christian Democrats don't make it and the three parties become bigger than the Red-Greens. Might keep together more easily without the Christian Democrats.
Against: Will probably not be supported by a majority. Could be seen as curtailed by the electorate if a party is lost.
If (kd) doesn't clear the threshold, that would be 3 important percentage points lost for the Alliance. And if they do, the government is losing anyway. Unlikely.

Moderates+Liberals+Christian Democrats
PM: Fredrik Reinfeldt
For: In case the Christian Democrats get 4% but the Centre Party do not. Can get along well after 8 years of governing together.
Against: Will hardly gain enough votes in the Riksdag, not even as a minority government.
Has all the problems of the last one, and many urban voters probably prefer "saving" the Centre Party to the Christian Democrats, making this scenario unlikely.


Across the aisle
Ranked by probability

Social Democrats+Greens+Liberals
PM: Stefan Löfven
For: The most probable non-bloc alternative. Liberal leader Jan Björklund talked openly about agreeing with both the other parties about education and profits within welfare.
Against: The Liberals have cooperated with the Alliance for eight years. Stepping into the opposing camp straight away might require a changing of the guard.
People are actually talking about this.

Social Democrats+Greens+Liberals+Centre
PM: Stefan Löfven
For: In many areas, the parties are close in practice. Could create a strong majority, keeping the Sweden Democrats away.
Against: Annie Lööf, the Centre Party leader, has gone strongly against the Social Democrats on employment issues. She likely doesn't want Löfven as her boss.
The Centre Party Youth League is currently going completely libertarian and won't look back. Governing with the enemy would have fun consequences.

Moderates+Liberals+Centre+Greens
PM: Fredrik Reinfeldt
For: If the Christian Democrats fail to reach 4% and the rest of the three are bigger than the Red-Greens, Reinfeldt will probably ask the Greens to tag along.
Against: The Greens have said no to becoming a fifth Alliance party, but if one of the four disappears the case might be different, especially since the Christian Democrats are the furthest away from the Greens.
I concur that this will be discussed, especially if (kd) goes buh-bye.

Social Democrats+Moderates
PM: The leader of the largest party
For: If the economy goes into a crisis and the Sweden Democrats grow much, we could see a grand coalition. The parties already cooperate on some issues, such as pensions and defense.
Against: Great ideological differences. There would be fighting over who leads the country in case the parties are close in vote size.
Sweden is not Germany. Everyone would go insane and the Sweden Democrats would have a field day.

More improbable alternatives

Social Democrats+Left
Social Democrats+Liberals+Centre
Unlikely, as the Greens are the Social Democrats' first-hand choice.

Moderates
Moderates+Liberals
Will almost definitely not have enough support.

Moderates+Liberals+Centre+Greens+Christian Democrats
The Greens have said no to becoming Alliance Party No. 5.
Don't count this out.

Social Democrats+Greens+Centre
Annie Lööf won't leave the Alliance alone.

Moderates+Christian Democrats+Sweden Democrats
My addition. Would require a very strong result for all three, especially the latter (<15%) and possibly the Centre Party losing their seats. Chaos ensues.

[Tayya]

The Liberals are easily the most socially liberal, followed by the Centre Party, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats. Well, the Liberals are more social liberal like the American Democrats (gay rights, women's rights etc.) with the Centre Party having a faction that is clearly more liberal on libertarian issues (drugs, immigration et al). Social issues are generally very unimportant in the Moderates, which helps them as a big tent.

Right now I'd say that the economical positions are very hard to determine, as everyone follows the lead of the Pied Pip.. er, Anders Borg. The Liberals are more economically right-wing than people think, the Centre Party has the radicals dragging them rightwards, the Moderates might snap back to the right if Reinfeldt and Borg are booted and the Christian Democrats haven't been talking taxes since I became conscious about politics.

The Christian Democrats are generally very pro-foreign aid et al, but there are parts of the Youth League that seems to have watched Rick Santorum speak one time too many. But no, it's not very likely, I just wanted to highlight the least unlikely road for SD into the government. The Liberals and much of the Centre Party would rather govern with the Social Democrats than the Sweden Democrats.

[Tayya]

Something like that, yes.

[Tayya]

Eh, I guess it was an overstatement, but there is a libertarian faction in CUF that is very vocal compared to any past libertarian movements.

Another poll from YouGov:

Moderates: 27.4% (-1.0%)
Centre Party: 4.2% (+1.5%)
Liberal Party: 5.4% (-0.5%)
Christian Democrats: 3.8% (-4.3%)
Social Democrats: 30.9% (-1.0%)
Greens: 8.2% (-0.4%)
Left Party: 7.6% (+1.9%)
Sweden Democrats: 10.9% (+0.1%)
Others: 1.4% (-0.2%)

We actually have some crosstabs! I'll post some comparisons to the last YouGov poll:

- Moderates actually up with voters over 65, down with younger voters. Unchanged with men, but down with women.
- Centre Party gains BIG among voters aged 18-35 and with women - 1.6% to 5.0% among women and 2.9% to 7.0% among the 18-35 crowd! Most of their gains are in rural areas. Some sort of Annie Lööf effect gaining sympathy? I have no idea.
- Liberal Party also down the most with young voters and women.
- Green Party down the most with men and voters 35-64. Gains among young, old and urban, loses among the 35-64 group and in rural areas.
- Social Democrats down more than 2% with men. Up 3% with voters 35-64, down 8% (!!) with voters 65+. Mostly losses in urban areas.
- Left Party gaining among all groups, especially the young and old.
- Sweden Democrats over 10% in urban areas. What is this I don't even.

[Tayya]

Poll alert! (SIFO)

New SIFO poll!

Moderate Party: 28.4% (+0.5)
Liberal Party: 6.4% (+1.0)
Christian Democrats: 2.7% (-0.9)
Centre Party: 4.1% (+0.6)
Social Democrats: 32.8% (-1.6)
Green Party: 10.9% (+2.0)
Left Party: 7.0% (n/a)
Sweden Democrats: 6.6% (-1.4)
Others: 1.1% (-0.2)

S+MP+V: 50.7%
M+FP+C+KD: 41.6% (38.9% without KD)
S+MP+FP: 50.1%

[Tayya]

I doubt the numbers will hold. It will be close.

Most people prefer Reinfeldt who has high approvals, but Stefan Löfven is doing far better than Sahlin and Juholt, of course. The minor party leaders have more mediocre approvals, with Jimmie Åkesson at the bottom. The Sweden Democrats do have a ceiling at not that high above what they've been reaching in the polls, but it's getting increasingly higher.

[Tayya]

Ripping off Swedish Cheese, here is Stockholm County in 2002, 2006 and 2010:



2002 (Botkyrka marked with "fp" to signal the Liberals beating the Moderates)



2006



2010 (Yes, there is a 75%+ margin in Danderyd)

Look at the swings! 11 municpalities switched blocs in 2006, including Stockholm itself.

[Tayya]

Neither is Täby. Non-Swedes, can you find the upper-class suburbs we are speaking about? And can you find the immigrant-heavy municipalities?

[Tayya]

In exactly one year, I will vote for the first time (except for the Church of Sweden elections this fall), in the elections to the European Parliament. The parties' line-ups are starting to take form.

The current Swedish MEPs are:

Left Party (GUE/NGL)
- Mikael Gustavsson (undeclared) (replaced Eva-Britt Svensson)

Social Democrats (S&D)
- Marita Ulvskog (undeclared)
- Olle Ludvigsson (undeclared)
- Åsa Westlund (retiring to run for the Riksdag)
- Göran Färm (retiring)
- Anna Hedh (undeclared)
- Jens Nilsson (undeclared)

Green Party (Greens/EFA)
- Carl Schlyter (retiring to run for the Riksdag)
- Isabella Lövin (running)

Pirate Party (Greens/EFA)
- Christian Engström (undeclared)
- Amelia Andersdotter (undeclared)

Centre Party (ALDE)
- Kent Johansson (undeclared) (replaced Lena Ek)

Liberal Party (ALDE)
- Marit Paulsen (undeclared)
- Olle Schmidt (retiring)
- Cecilia Wikström (undeclared)

Moderate Party (EPP)
- Gunnar Hökmark (running)
- Anna Ibrisagic (retiring)
- Christoffer Fjellner (running)
- Anna-Maria Corazza Bildt (running)

Christian Democrats (EPP)
- Alf Svensson (retiring)

The Moderate Party and Christian Democrats has held their advisory internal primary elections/straw polls.

Other noteworthy candidates to declare:

Christian Democrats - Lars Adaktusson (journalist)
Centre Party - Fredrick Federley (notable MP, more libertarian-leaning)
Social Democrats - Jytte Guteland (former Youth League chairperson)

[Tayya]

Big Bipartisan Compromise on Free Schools

Six of the major parties today announced an agreement on the Swedish free school system. Free schools are privatly owned schools that are open to everyone and financed through vouchers.

The compromise means that it'll still be possible to run these schools for a profit, while introducing stricer regulation and quality control, more and increased sanctions and punishments when the system is abused.

Urgh. Which six parties?

The governing parties, the Social Democrats and the Greens... whose on-going congress just decided to include the phrase "we want to remove the commercially oriented actors from the market". Their membership isn't moving towards the centre as quickly as their leadership, which tends to show.

I wonder where they'd been if Mikaela Valtersson (who is currently a lobbyist for free schools) had been elected spokesperson instead of Åsa Romson.

@Swedish Cheese: What's the likelyhood that Kent J. will be booted by Federley on the basis of more personal vote? Is Johansson known among the Centre Party voters outside the capital?

[Tayya]

So, the poll of all polls - Statistics Sweden's biannual poll - is coming on Tuesday.

Predictions, anyone?

Mine:

Social Democrats 34%
Moderates 28%
Sweden Democrats 9%
Green Party 8%
Left Party 6%
Liberal Party 6%
Centre Party 4%
Christian Democrats 3%

[Tayya]

Five such precincts exist:

Donsö-Vrångö, Gothenburg Municipality, 41.13%
Dyrön, Tjörn Municipality, 41.95%
Fotö, Öckerö Municipality, 41.48%
Rörö, Öckerö Municipality, 37.64%
Åstol, Tjörn Municipality, 54.17% (!)

All precincts are located in the Gothenburg-area archipelago. Only Donsö-Vrångö is the usual size of a precinct, 1000-1500 people, the others have less than 400 voters each.

[Tayya]

Women should run the world.

[Tayya]

On the Social Democrats day in Almedalen, here's a new poll by Aftonbladet/United Minds.

All voters - which party should the Social Democrats form government with?
Left and Greens - 19%
Greens - 15%
Left - 11%
Greens, Centre and Liberals - 7%
Liberals - 5%
Left, Greens and Liberals - 3%
Centre - 2%
No other party (they should govern alone) - 10%
None of these parties - 12%
Don't know - 17%

When the actual hyped coalition possibility is with the Greens and Liberals only, and they aren't included, I can't take this poll seriously.

[Tayya]

I don't know. A Social Democratic+Green+Liberal coalition would probably be enticing to the Södermalm urban liberal journalists.

We have the first poll of this election season for the European Parliament! Oddly enough for Swedish poll, the company (TNS-SIFO) has only produced even numbers, and included the Pirate Party (with 2 seats in the European Parliament) in the "Others" group, while showing the Sweden Democrats with zero separately... anyways:

Left - 7% (+1,3)
Social Democrats - 26% (+1,4)
Greens - 15% (+4,0)

Centre - 3% (-2,5)
Liberal - 4% (-9,6)
Moderate - 28% (+9,2)
Christian Democrats - 4% (-0,7)

Sweden Democrats - 7% (+3,7)

Others - 6% (-7)

Red-Greens - 48% (+6,7)
The Alliance - 39% (-3,6)

"Others" in 2010 consisted of the Pirate Party (7,1%), the June List (3,6%) and the Feminist Initiative (2,2%). If we apply the decrease equally, the Pirates get 3.3%, the June List 1,7% and the Feminist Initiative 1.0%.

Mandates:

Left - 1-2 (--/+1)*
Social Democrats - 6 (+1)
Greens - 3 (+1)

Centre - 0 (-1)
Liberal - 1 (-2)
Moderate - 6 (+2)
Christian Democrats - 1 (--)

Sweden Democrats - 1-2 (--/+1)*

Pirates - 0 (-2)

*Tied in the poll