I think 2016 had a lot hold the Democratic vote back. You had Matthew that hit and cause a lot of damage in the eastern democratic areas. Plus you had the NC GOP cutting the early voting locations which cut into the Democratic vote. I think in 2020 NC will trend D.
We also had violence surrounding anti-police brutality protests in Charlotte, which probably helped energize the Trump vote in NC in 2016.
Can we stop using swing and trend interchangeably? One election doesn't equal a trend.
