Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[palandio]

General question/theory, maybe a bit over-simplified:

Looking at the past election results you can get the feeling that there are loyal and swing voter blocs in Israel:

Loyal:
- The Arabs, not accounting for internal differences, turnout variations, etc.
- Ashkenazi Haredim
- After some variations in the past, the Shas voter bloc seems to be mostly stable now
- A national religious core at ca. 5%
- Lieberman after some ups and downs seems to have consolidated a loyal base
- Meretz seems to have a stable core ca. at the threshold
- Lapid seems to have a loyal base at 8-10%
- Labor had a base, but it is mostly gone by now
- Bibi seems to have a loyal base, but I'm not sure how to quantify it; Kulanu seems to have mostly been flesh-from-the-flesh of Likud and can probably be included here

Swing:
- There seems to be a right-wing swing bloc of up to 15% that often votes Likud, but occasionally flirts with Bennet and is now partially attracted to Saar
- There seems to be a center-to-left anti-Bibi swing bloc of up to 20% that at various times supported Livni, Herzog, Gantz and that is now divided between The Israelis, YA, the remainders of B&W and partially Saar(??) and up for grabs

What I find interesting is how Lapid has managed to consolidate a loyal base that if he wants can be merged with the anti-Bibi swing bloc without losses, but if he wants to go alone he can keep it without losses, too. That's pretty amazing.

[palandio]

[...]
*If Smotrich unites with Jewish Home and the nazis he passes with 5, Likud loses 2, Bennet loses 2, Sa'ar loses 1
*If Huldai and Michaeli unite they get 7, YA loses 2, Meretz loses 1
*If Lapid and Huldai unite they get 18, YB loses 1 and Meretz loses 1
[...]

These scenario numbers look made up. How can it be that only parties from the same area of the political spectrum lose seats if there are less votes wasted?

E.g. the votes of Smotrich, JH and OY together are worth 5 seats.
If they unite and everything else stays the same, then these 5 seats would come from across the spectrum.
If they unite and manage to attract additional votes from e.g. Yamina, then they get more than 5 seats.

The votes of Labor and Huldai together are worth 7-8 seats.
If they unite and everything stays the same, then these 3-4 additional seats would come from across the spectrum.
If instead they manage to attract additional votes from e.g. YA, then they get more than just 7 seats.

It just doesn't add up.

[palandio]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

[palandio]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

What is the problem? There seem to be multiple instances where independent candidates and candidates from minor parties are/were running on other lists. As far as I know Huldai and Nissenkorn were formally Labor members, too?

Is it the "backup" idea that is questionable, i.e. if you fail the threshold, you still get a representative? Is it that formally lists have to be the union of parties, and no party should be in two lists?