2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[InheritTheWind]

For somewhat distant gubernatorial races (but still relevant), Eric Greitens has a 41% approval rating in that Republican poll. Kind of jives with what I've seen in the state. I know of several Trump-curious people who hate Greitens. Problem is, the Democratic bench in the state is weak.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

Yes, I have loose roots from metro St. Louis, and most of what you wrote is true. Also true about the KC suburbs. There's much less racial tension going on in that part of the state. Though I do still expect some swing in the St. Louis suburbs this year and in 2020. Whether it will be significant, idk.

A lot of Greitens' problems stem from, as you pointed out, the fact he doesn't really seem that engaged in Missouri and is looking to run for President down the line, and it's transparently obvious he wants to do that. Combine that with the fact that trifectas have a tendency to overreach (RTW legislation, other batsh**t crazy stuff the legislature has come up with) and the feeling that Missouri is turning into a Brownback's Kansas 2.0 situation and you get a lot of otherwise conservative people that dislike Greitens. He's an aloof pretty boy. Even worse is he filled his administration with incompetent people who have never worked in prior administrations and he has a huge ego to the point where he probably is ignorant of the fact that he's turning so many people off.

I could envision a scenario where Democrats topple him in 2020 even if Trump is carrying the state handily again. Who that candidate is is anyone's guess. Nicole Galloway (if she wins her full term as State Auditor this year--Big if)? A self-funding businessman who can portray himself as a social moderate/conservative? A random state legislator (probably has to be someone who can connect somewhat to rural Missouri even though there's literally only one Democrat from rural Missouri left in the legislature. A veteran from the cities/suburbs could do it). Kander has gone too NATIONAL LIBERAL HERO to be an effective opponent against Greitens and his aloofness. Koster is an inauthentic, pandering doofus. Ben Harris could be an intriguing candidate. He's termed out of the state House in 2018 (last rural Democrat), but he'd have to prove his fundraising chops, and IDK if he'd want it. He's pro-life and pro-gun. Kander's near-win in 2016 showed that you don't necessarily need to win any rural counties to win statewide, but you can't get blown out and only get 15-25% of the vote in rural counties like HRC did across the board. The path is to get about 35% of the vote in rural/exurban areas statewide, hit 60%+ in St. Louis County, 2/3 in Jackson and win Clay and Platte comfortably while fighting to a draw in St. Charles County and Jefferson County.

P.S. fwiw, my Trump-loving, Fox News watching parents love Nicole Galloway and the work she’s been doing as State Auditor and they are planning on voting for Hawley for Senate and Galloway for Auditor. Funny how good governance can get you goodwill from unlikely sources I guess.

Well, now Greitens has a far bigger problem on his hands. Do you think he'll make it to 2020?