MT-PPP: Obama trails all (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 20, 2024, 01:56:40 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MT-PPP: Obama trails all (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MT-PPP: Obama trails all  (Read 3689 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,849
United States


« on: June 28, 2011, 05:38:02 PM »

Despite having an approval rating in the range in which he is within striking distance in Montana, President Obama loses to all significant GOP candidates (including Cain and Bachmann, whom I do not yet show.)

Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich

(Deleted to accommodate Rick Perry)

Obama vs. Palin



Obama vs. Pawlenty




Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons




DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)

Obama -- Hawaii and Illinois...he will tie himself!
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,849
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2011, 05:40:03 PM »

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

Did Montana get a bunch of oil and gas employees?

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,849
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2011, 07:30:18 AM »

I`ll continue with my Romney-only map:



Great.
This is the only map worth updating.

All States results prove that Romney is the only solution for the GOP, even by default.

I disagree, big bad. That map is terrible for a republican. What that map is telling us is that romney is a bad candidate, but he seems to be an electable one because all the other (huntsman not included) are awful.

I have some for other candidates -- those that do well in Republican polling. It is possible that Mitt Romney will pull out for some reason, that someone (let us say Huckabee) re-enters the race, or that someone will consolidate the support of "Everyone but Romney". I have withdrawn Huckabee when he formally withdrew and Gingrich when his situation became untenable.  I was about to add Rick Perry if he had a strong showing in Texas but resorted to Bachmann when she seemed as viable as Palin, Pawlenty, et al.

Mitt Romney is the most electable of the lot, which is about like saying that he is driving a vintage Volkswagen Beetle against someone driving an Indy Car but everyone else racing horse-drawn buggies in a winner-take-all race.

So far it looks as if Mitt Romney will get his place in American history books from hereon as the person who lost to Barack Obama in the 2012 election . But someone else? Heh, heh, heh.   
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,849
United States


« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2011, 12:16:42 AM »

I`ll continue with my Romney-only map:




Adding very pale blue for states that Mitt would win , pale red to those that Obama would win, and white to the one unpolled state (Indiana) that shows some ambiguity...



PPP polled New Hampshire and Pennsylvania this weekend, so those are best described as "subject to change".

Romney              173
Obama               353
Indeterminable    11
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,849
United States


« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2011, 03:09:19 PM »

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

Yep, and what has not been advertised is that Romney's margin has gone DOWN considerably since the last PPP poll was released on 11/17/2010. Here is that poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1117513.pdf

Romney 50 / Obama 29, Margin = Romney +21
Pawlenty 51 / Obama 41, Margin = Tpaw +10

The only person whose margin has marginally (haha) improved since Nov 2010 is: Palin.

That is a huge shift over seven months, and if I were to see momentum, then it is on behalf of the President. Senator Tester (D, MT)  will need a strong GOTV effort in an R-leaning state to be re-elected, and you can be sure that his Senate seat will be well worth defending. Remember: Senator Tester defeated an incumbent weakened by allegations of abuse of power -- and just barely.   A GOTV effort that re-elects Senator Tester could also throw three electoral votes to President Obama.

But I am ahead of myself; that depends upon much going right that I cannot reliably foresee even if I can't rule it out.   
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.