MT-PPP: Obama trails all

[DS0816]

It should be noted that this sample voted 50-41 for McCain in 2008.  The state only went 49-47 McCain in 2008 (MT was one of the states to have an unofficial Ron Paul option on the ballot).

So, this 9-point advantage should be adjusted for a 6- to 7-point Democratic shift? (John McCain held onto for the Republicans Montana by a margin of 2.38% while Barack Obama won over females at 51%.)

[DS0816]

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Given the 6.62% adjustment, thanks to the polling oversample (9 points, from 2008 McCain voters)

• Romney vs. Obama: R+1.38% (Shift, from 2008: D+1.00)
• Bachmann vs. Obama: D+0.62% (Shift: D+3.00)
• Cain vs. Obama: D+1.62% (Shift: D+4.00)
• Palin vs. Obama: D+2.62% (Shift: D+5.00)
• Pawlenty vs. Obama: D+3.62% (Shift: D+6.00)

[DS0816]

Before people jump on the sample, you should keep in mind that 2 years after an election the 2008 sample can jump around a bit. Especially if you have mood changes. Typically, people who would normally vote Republican but voted Obama in 2008 are going to remember themselves voting Republican back in 2008 if they decide to do so in 2012. Thus, weighting by previous vote often risks underestimating swings. Just saying...

But what about direction of the "swing"?

It is fact that nearly all two-term presidents won re-election with an increased U.S. Popular Vote, national margin, and electoral-vote count (by comparison to first election). And it's very common for re-elected incumbents to gain between 4% and 6% with national margin (over losing opposition-party challenger).

Just saying…

[DS0816]

Not a swing state under any circumstances. Doesn't matter. The end.

Incorrect. A state that ended up under 2.50% is competitive. If the Rs win back the White House in 2012, Montana's margin will be closer to 12.38% (than the 2.38% held by 2008 John McCain). If Barack Obama wins re-election as the 44th president of the United States, no reason not to go after this state when considering there's also the U.S. Senate seat held by Jon Tester (which the Ds will want to see retained).