Papal Election

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It will take a minimum of twelve or thirteen days.  I can’t see anyone getting the needed two-thirds majority in the period before an election by a simple majority becomes possible. For all but three of the cardinals this will be their first conclave.  The first votes will be very fractured because they can’t be centered around candidates who attracted votes in the last conclave so it will take a long time for them to arrive at a consensus.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

IT will be an Italian. They’ve been to long without having one.

Only 20 of the 117 Cardinal electors come from Italy.
Only 58 come from Europe as a whole.
While I doubt that an African will be the next Pope, a Latin American Pope is a distinct possibility.  Why do think Castro has done such an about face of late?  He’s trying his best to avoid giving the cardinals a reason to elect Cardinal Ortega y Alamino as the next Pontiff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

i seem to be alone here in predicting a medium-length conclave, and no one is predicting a really long one.  BTW, JJ, I thought it was supposed to be almost two weeks before they could start electing by a simple majority?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I am truly surprised by the rapid choice, altho I am not surprised that Ratzinger was the result of a quick election.  It appears that the conclave decided on an old pope who is likely to provide continuity of existing policy while they mull over which direction the churcg taks next.