why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median. Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
Maine is the very definition of a tossup race. Wide open (not to mention massive) fields on both sides with no clear frontrunners, and very strong independent candidates. I could see this race going any way right now - if any state were to go against the national tide, it would be Maine.
Michigan seems to be the purest of tossups as well from the little polling we have. Whitmer is not doing as strongly as expected, while Schuette is doing quite well considering the national environment.
FTR I have both states flipping D in the end, but it doesn't make sense to call either race anything but a tossup.